The 2026 State of Origin kicks off this Wednesday evening, with Queensland heading to Accor Stadium in Sydney to take on New South Wales in Game 1.
New South Wales vs Queensland
The Blues have a stronger team on paper. Nathan Cleary and Mitchell Moses in the halves, the experience of James Tedesco out back and a swath of mobile forwards in the middle have them favourites to win Game 1.
Queensland have a reputation for defying the odds, however, winning last year's series 2-1 as heavy underdogs.
The Maroons have Kalyn Ponga at fullback instead of Reece Walsh, with familiar faces Selwyn Cobbo and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow lurking in the backline and Cameron Munster at the helm.
Leg 1 - Queensland +4.5
Queensland have only lost one Game 1 under Billy Slater, while New South Wales have lost their last four opening games at Accor Stadium dating back to 2013.
Game 1s are typically tight, with six of the last eight ending with a 1-12 margin.
Whether Queensland cause an upset or simply play out a narrow loss, the Maroons covering the spread here is a strong bet.
Leg 2 - Under 41.5 Points Total
Seven of the last 10 opening Origin games have had less than 41.5 points scored.
This trend holds for Origin in general, with nine of the last 15 fixtures sitting under this line.
Conservative, low-risk footy can be expected, which when combined with a host of debutants on either side will put points at a premium.
Leg 3 - Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to Score
Tabuai-Fidow has a knack for inserting himself in games even when they're forwards-oriented.
He already owns 11 tries in 10 appearances for Queensland, and starting at centre instead of fullback will only mean more opportunities for the 24-year-old to cross over.
Same Game Multi
Queensland +4.5 / Under 41.5 / Tabuai-Fidow to Score = $8.00
Value Bet
If Queensland are to punch above their weight in this game, a lot of it will pivot around Munster playing out of his skin.
He's no stranger to unlocking another level in Origin, with the five-eighth winning Player of the Match three times in the last five series, one of which was in a Game 1.
No Tom Dearden means Munster will carry much of the attacking burden for Queensland, creating a sink or swim situation where his calibre should shine through.
