The 2026 Brownlow Medal race is officially wide open after Round 10, with just three votes separating the top six players on our leaderboard.
Nick Daicos remains narrowly in front despite surviving back-to-back tagging jobs, while Bailey Smith and Marcus Bontempelli continue to apply pressure close behind.
There’s also a familiar name storming back into contention, with former Brownlow Medallist Patrick Cripps entering our leaderboard at triple-figure odds.
Brownlow Leaderboard - Round 10
| Rank | Name | Team | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Daicos | Coll | 15.48 | $5.00 |
| 2 | Bailey Smith | Gee | 14.93 | $5.00 |
| 3 | Marcus Bontempelli | WB | 13.94 | $4.00 |
| 4 | Zak Butters | PA | 13.35 | $10 |
| 5 | Christian Petracca | GC | 12.91 | $10 |
| 6 | Jai Newcombe | Haw | 12.37 | $21 |
| 7 | Patrick Cripps | Car | 11.55 | $251 |
| 8 | Isaac Heeney | Syd | 11.02 | $15 |
Best Bet
We anticipated a rough fortnight for Nick Daicos with consecutive tagging jobs from Oisin Mullin and James Jordan, but he’s come through it still leading our leaderboard after Round 10.
The fixture ahead now looks extremely favourable.
Collingwood face West Coast this weekend before taking on the Bulldogs, who traditionally don’t employ a hard tag. After King’s Birthday against Melbourne, the Magpies head into the bye before a very manageable stretch against Port Adelaide, Richmond, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Carlton.
Importantly, several of those opponents are unlikely to send a dedicated stopper to Daicos.
It shapes as the perfect opportunity for him to create separation on the leaderboard over the next six weeks.
Back Nick Daicos @ $5 with betr
Lay
The concern with Marcus Bontempelli isn’t his ability to poll votes — it’s the Bulldogs’ ability to consistently win games.
Western Bulldogs look vulnerable at the moment and the upcoming fixture doesn’t get any easier.
They now face Melbourne, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Adelaide, St Kilda and Sydney across the next six rounds, with plenty of genuine 50-50 matchups in that stretch.
Based on current form, there’s a realistic scenario where the Bulldogs go 1-5 over that period, which would make it extremely difficult for Bontempelli to keep pace with the other leading contenders.
At the current market prices, there’s simply more value elsewhere.
Marcus Bontempelli @ $4 with betr
Value Bet
It sounds far-fetched given the scrutiny Patrick Cripps has faced this season, but there are genuine indicators suggesting he could make a late Brownlow charge.
Cripps currently ranks third in the AFL for contested possessions per game — historically one of the strongest indicators for Brownlow success.
He’s also one of the best natural pollers of the modern era.
Cripps has likely been best-on-ground in both Carlton wins this season, while there’s a strong case he also polled heavily last week against Brisbane after recording 32 disposals and a goal.
The biggest factor is Carlton’s upcoming draw.
Across the next six weeks, the Blues face five of the six lowest-ranked teams in the competition, alongside Geelong.
If the coaching change under Josh Fraser sparks a run of wins and Carlton goes 4-2 over that stretch, Cripps could rapidly shorten from his current triple-figure odds.
Back Patrick Cripps @ $251 with betr
The Voting System - Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach
We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness when assessing player performances.
The traditional 3-2-1 voting method limits allocations to whole numbers, often forcing sharp distinctions between players whose performances may have been nearly identical.
Our weighted system instead allows for decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on a game.
The model still maintains the standard six total votes per match, but introduces greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed.
Ultimately, this reduces arbitrary decision-making and creates a leaderboard that more accurately reflects how games are viewed by fans, analysts and the broader football community.
