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Friday AFL Tips – Points Unders the Play at Adelaide Oval

It’s a pick’em at Adelaide Oval for Friday night footy, with the Crows hosting the red-hot Western Bulldogs.

Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs have surged into premiership contention, opening the season with wins over two 2025 top-eight sides, including last year’s premiers.

They now face another genuine contender in Adelaide, who impressed in an upset win over Collingwood to start their 2026 campaign.

Can the Bulldogs maintain their hot start, or will the Crows make it two from two?

LEG 1 - Under 193.5 Total Points

The Bulldogs can score, but this is a massive total for a night game at Adelaide Oval.

Since 2023, the over has hit in just 36% of Adelaide night games at the venue. That’s with an average total line around 167, and an average match total of just 157.7 across 22 games.

Scoring has increased in 2026 under the new rules, but this is still a significant jump. Only two of those 22 games would have cleared this number.

LEG 2 - Bailey Dale 20+ Disposals

Dale missed this line in Round 0 against Brisbane, but bounced back with 23 disposals against GWS.

He’s hit 20+ in 84% of his games since the start of 2024, and as the Bulldogs’ primary distributor from kick-ins and in general play, he should find the ball again here.

LEG 3 - Sam Davidson 1+ Goals

Davidson shapes as great value to hit the scoreboard.

After playing primarily as a wing last season and kicking 13 goals in 19 games, he’s started 2026 strongly with three goals in two matches.

He’s still rotating through the wing, but Bevo has pushed him higher up the ground at times as a half forward, increasing his scoring opportunities.

LEG 4 - Luke Pedlar 1+ Goals

Pedlar is pushing to cement his spot in this Adelaide side, and with Josh Rachele spending more time in the midfield, there’s opportunity inside 50.

He kicked 1.2 against Collingwood last week and added three goals in the pre-season, showing he’s around the mark.

Same Game Multi

Under 193.5 Total Points / Dale 20+ Disposals / Davidson 1+ Goals / Pedlar 1+ Goals = $6.75

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