Friday night brings a rematch of the 2025 NRL Grand Final, with the Melbourne Storm hosting the Brisbane Broncos in a high-stakes Round 3 clash.
Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos
Melbourne vs Brisbane has been one of the most one-sided head-to-heads in the competition over the past two decades, despite both sides regularly sitting near the top of the table.
The Storm have won 35 of the last 42 games between the clubs, including the last nine in a row at AAMI Park. But there’s no chance they’ll be complacent here, with the hosts entering this match off the back of a Grand Final loss to Brisbane last season.
Form couldn’t be more contrasting coming into Round 3, with Melbourne racking up 98 points across their opening two wins, while the Broncos have been woeful in back-to-back losses.
LEG 1 - Storm -9.5
All signs point towards a strong Melbourne win here. And it’s not just the head-to-head, form or motivation for revenge.
Brisbane are missing one of their key generals in Adam Reynolds, who is sidelined with a rib injury.
Without Reynolds, their defensive structure and attacking organisation both take a hit. The Broncos need everything to go right to topple Melbourne, and without one of their main playmakers, it’s hard to see that happening.
LEG 2 - Over 55.5 Points
Of the four matches these sides have been involved in this season, three have gone over the 55.5-point mark.
There’s enough attacking power in Melbourne’s backline to expect plenty of points, as shown by their 98 points so far in 2026.
Brisbane conceding 66 points across two games doesn’t inspire much confidence that they can contain the Storm.
LEG 3 - Storm Over 16.5 2nd-Half Points
While Melbourne were comfortable winners over the Dragons last week, 28 of their points came in a second-half surge. They also put up 34 after the break in Round 1 against the Eels.
Whether it’s early rust or superior fitness, this 2026 Storm side is doing its best work in the second half.
Same Game Multi
Storm -9.5 / Over 55.5 Points / Storm Over 16.5 2nd-Half Points = $3.80
VALUE BET - Under 3.5 1st-Half Tries @ $3.80
This fixture brings a finals-like level of intensity, so expect the early exchanges to be tight and physical.
Melbourne will be confident they can absorb that pressure and capitalise later in the game.
Both regular-season meetings in 2025 had fewer than 3.5 tries in the first half, so another low-scoring opening period wouldn’t surprise.
