What a treat we have on Thursday’s six-game slate. We may be witnessing an NBA Finals preview when the Thunder and Pistons face off, while two other contenders go head-to-head as the Celtics travel to Denver.
Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets
The Celtics continue to go from strength to strength, winning nine of their last ten games while Jayson Tatum edges closer to a return.
Denver, meanwhile, has hit a lull with injuries disrupting their rotation. The Nuggets have won just three of their last nine games, and with Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson still sidelined, it won’t get any easier — even at home.
LEG 1 - Celtics +4.5
Boston has been excellent on the road this season, owning the second-best road cover rate in the NBA at 66.7%. They’ve been even better as road underdogs, covering seven of ten games in that role.
Although they enter on no rest, they’ve still covered at a 66.7% clip in back-to-back situations this season.
Denver is navigating a tough stretch without Gordon and Watson, their primary defensive wings. The Nuggets have covered just twice in their last nine home games and have won only three of their last eight overall. This is a tough matchup against an elite Boston side.
LEG 2 - Jaylen Brown 6+ Rebounds
Brown had a brief dip on the glass with just two rebounds against the Knicks and four against the Bulls, but he’s responded strongly.
He’s well rested after sitting out Wednesday’s game against Phoenix. In his last two appearances, Brown grabbed eight rebounds against the Lakers and 15 against the Warriors.
Across his last 23 games, Brown is averaging eight rebounds and has cleared 6+ boards in 20 of them. He had seven rebounds in the previous meeting with Denver — expect a similar output here.
LEG 3 - Cam Johnson 10+ Points
It was a choice between Johnson and Christian Braun for this leg, but Johnson gets the nod.
He’s averaging 12 points per game without Gordon and Watson this season, hitting double figures in five of eight games in that scenario.
The matchup is more favourable for Johnson than Braun, and his minutes have increased, logging 35+ in two of the last three games.
Same Game Multi
Celtics +4.5 / Brown 6+ Rebounds / Johnson 10+ Points = $4.20
Value Bet - Bruce Brown 10+ Points @ $3.20
Bruce Brown has quietly been solid for Denver of late, and this 10+ points price looks generous.
His minutes are trending upward, and he’s a more reliable option than Strawther in this depleted Nuggets rotation. Brown is averaging 10.1 points across the eight games he’s played without Gordon and Watson this season.
He’s reached double figures in six of those eight games. The only misses came in a blowout against Portland where he played under 20 minutes, and a tough matchup against Cleveland.
