Week 12 of the NFL season kicks off with an important AFC clash between the Texans and Bills in Houston. Can the Texans stop Josh Allen? Here are my NFL betting tips for this Friday.
Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Houston Texans (5-5)
Following a disappointing 30-13 loss against the Dolphins, the Bills were back to their best in a thriller against the Bucs in Week 11. Josh Allen amassed 6 touchdowns (3 rushing & 3 passing) as the Bills beat the Bucs 44-32. With the Bills sitting at 7-3 and chasing the Pats in the AFC East, this is simply a must-win game. Overall, they are scoring 29.2 points per game, which ranks them 4th in the NFL. They are the top rushing team in the league and have been excellent against the pass, ranking 2nd in the NFL for passing yards. Rushing yards is were they struggle, averaging 153 against them per game.
After two wins over divisional rivals, the Texans are right in the playoff mix. QB Davis Mills has been stepping up without C.J. Stroud and he's forming a nice combo with Nico Collins. The pair combined for 9 catches, 92 yards and a TD last week. Defensively, the Texans are one of the best in the NFL. They're allowed the 3rd fewest rushing and passing yards, which will be a key factor against the Bills firepower behind Josh Allen.
Leg #1 - Houston Texans +10.5
First-up, this should be a close game on a short week. The Texans are playing solid football and the Bills are a bit inconsistent on the road. They've failed to cover in 4 of their last 6 road games. Their record against Houston isn't great either, it's just 2-6 in the last 8 meetings.
Leg #2 - Under 45.5
The trends are screaming Under in this matchup. I expect the Bills defence to be a lot better against a 2nd string QB and Houston don't have the best rushing attack to trouble the Buffalo defence. The Under has saluted in 8 of the Texans last 11 games and 4-1 when they play at home. When these two sides meet, the Under has a nice 7-1 record.
Leg #3 - Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer
After 3 rushing touchdowns last week, it makes sense to include Josh Allen at a decent price. In his last 4 games, he's scored on the ground in 3 of them. That includes last week's 3 TD day, 2 against the Chiefs and 2 against the Panthers on the road.
Same Game Multi
Houston Texans +10.5 / Under 45.5 / Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer = $6.00
Value Leg - Nico Collins Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Collins is getting massive targets in the Houston passing game and he should be a good target to get into the endzone for a 2nd straight week. Over his last 4 games, he's had 10 or more targets in all 4 and that includes a ceiling of 15. He has 4 receiving touchdowns this season as well.
