AFL Brownlow Predictor – Round 19 2025

Just when we thought it was Nick Daicos’ Brownlow to lose after Round 17, a group of contenders put up their hands with big performances in Round 18.

Best Bet

Caleb Serong @ $17

Only one more game remains in Nick Daicos’ softer run, with Richmond up next. After that, Collingwood face Brisbane, Hawthorn and Adelaide. With that fixture ahead, we’re likely to see better than the current $2.20.

Meanwhile, Caleb Serong is still $17 after leading Fremantle to an upset win over the Pies with 37 disposals and a goal. What are we missing? He moves into second on our leaderboard and faces West Coast next - a team he has dominated in recent years. After that, Freo play Carlton and Port Adelaide.

It’s staggering he remains at this price, especially given the drop-offs from Dawson and Smith, who are still trading in single figures. Serong has proven he can poll. He finished equal-fourth last year with 28 votes and equal-seventh the year before with 24.

Lay

Jordan Dawson @ $4.50

Dawson has fallen outside our top 10, yet somehow remains the outright second favourite and is still priced in the $4 range.

We don’t have him polling from a 20-disposal outing in their win over the Suns, which leaves just four projected votes from his last seven games.

There is no way Dawson wins the Brownlow from here. Lay him with confidence.

Value

Matt Rowell @ $26

Rowell has jumped into fifth on our leaderboard and might be ready to explode.

He has polled strongly since the bye, with eight projected votes from his last five games. It’s a good time to revisit what we saw in 2024. Rowell was projected for 17 to 19 votes — maybe 20 — and ended up polling 25, finishing equal-eighth. That was in a season where the Suns won 11 games. They could finish with 15 or 16 in 2025.

Rowell is averaging a career-best 25.2 disposals and 8.3 clearances per game. He ranks seventh in contested possessions and second in tackles across the league. With games against Essendon, Richmond, Carlton and Port Adelaide still to come, plus a game in hand, he remains a serious contender at long odds.

The Voting System - Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.