2025 AFL Round 10 Betting Predictions
Round 10 of the AFL season kicks off in Darwin with a massive top 4 matchup as the Suns look for an 8th straight win at TIO Stadium when they face the red-hot Hawks.
Gold Coast Suns (4th) vs Hawthorn (3rd)
The Suns are heading into their clash with the Hawks in solid form after a 10-point win over the Western Bulldogs at TIO Stadium, where they slotted home 15 goals. They've been strong at home with a perfect 3-0 record and have held their own on the road too, going 3-2 away this season. Sitting 4th on the ladder with a 6-2 overall record, the Suns have been one of the more dangerous attacking teams in the comp. They’re ranked 2nd in the AFL for goals kicked and lead the league for inside 50s — so they’re getting plenty of chances up forward. Ben King chipped in with 3 goals last week, continuing his good form. They’ve won 3 of their last 5 and are currently on a one-game winning streak.
The Hawks are on fire, coming off a big 35-point win over Melbourne at the MCG, where they booted 13 goals. Gunston bagged 3 majors and Worpel racked up 28 touches in a standout performance. They’ve now won three on the trot and sit 3rd on the ladder with an impressive 7-2 record. They're unbeaten at home (4-0) and have managed a solid 3-2 away record as well. Stat-wise, the Hawks are getting it done across the board — they’re 4th in the AFL for disposals, 5th for goals kicked, and 3rd for tackles. With three wins from their last five and momentum building, they’re looking like a real threat heading into this clash with the Suns.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 7-1 at this venue since 2018. Hawthorn are 0-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Suns hold a 4-1 record against the Hawks.
Best Bet
The Over has saluted in the last 5 games with the Suns playing here and I think both sides will be able to score plenty of points.
Same Game Multi
The Suns get the advantage of playing back to back in Darwin, a place that they love and have won 7 straight. The home team is 7-0 ATS in this matchup too. So I can see the Suns getting an important win for their top 4 hopes. Touk Miller will bring up 200 AFL games and he has hit the 25+ disposals in 4 of his last 5 games.
Over 185.5 pts / Suns -7.5 / Touk Miller 25+ disposals = $5.00
Sydney Swans (14th) vs Carlton (10th)
The Swans have had a tough run lately, sitting 14th on the ladder with just three wins from nine games and only one victory in their last five. They went down to the Bombers by 8 points at Docklands last week, with Hayward kicking 2 goals and Chad Warner leading the midfield with 7 clearances. While their inside 50 entries are a bright spot — ranked 5th in the comp — they’ve struggled across a few key areas. They’re sitting 14th for goals, clearances, and disposals, and second-last for tackles. Their away form (2-3) has been slightly better than at home (1-3), but overall, they’re in need of a turnaround heading into this matchup with the Blues.
The Blues are starting to find some form, coming off a 15-point win over St Kilda at the MCG where they kicked 11 goals, with Curnow and McKay snagging 3 each. They've won 4 of their last 5 and are sitting 10th on the ladder with a 4-5 record. Their away form has been a bit patchy (2-3), but they're right in the mix thanks to some strong team stats — ranked 1st in the AFL for tackles, 3rd for clearances, and 4th for inside 50s. With a bit of momentum behind them and a solid midfield, the Blues will be confident heading into this one against the struggling Swans.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 6-4 in their last 10 games at SCG. Carlton are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 3-2 against the Blues in the last 5.
Best Bet
Both sides are wildly inconsistent so it's probably going to be low scoring. The Under is 14-1 in the Blues last 15 too.
Collingwood (2nd) vs Adelaide Crows (5th)
The Magpies are flying high at the moment, sitting 2nd on the ladder with a strong 7-2 record and four wins from their last five. They got the job done in Round 9 with a solid 14-point win over Fremantle in Perth, where they kicked 15 goals — including a massive six-goal haul from Jamie Elliott. They’ve been reliable both at home (4-1) and away (3-1), and their pressure game has been a standout, ranking 4th in the AFL for tackles. With momentum on their side and some serious firepower up forward, the Pies will be tough to beat against the Crows.
The Crows are building nicely this season, sitting 5th on the ladder with a 6-3 record and riding a two-game winning streak. They edged out Port Adelaide by 5 points in a hard-fought Showdown last week, kicking 13 goals at Adelaide Oval, with Fogarty and Thilthorpe both booting three. They’ve been strong at home (4-1) and solid on the road (2-2), and they’re leading the league for goals kicked — so scoring certainly isn’t an issue. With three wins from their last five and plenty of firepower up forward, the Crows will be backing themselves to challenge the in-form Magpies.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 8-2 in their last 10 games at MCG. Adelaide are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Magpies are 8-0 against the Crows.
Best Bet
Hard to back against the Pies at home and the Crows don't play well at the MCG.
Port Adelaide (13th) vs Geelong Cats (7th)
The Power are looking to bounce back after a narrow 5-point loss to the Crows in last week’s Showdown at Adelaide Oval. They're sitting 13th on the ladder with a 4-5 record and are currently on a two-game losing streak. Butters was everywhere with 33 disposals, and Finlayson chipped in with 3 goals, showing there’s still plenty of talent in the side. They’ve been decent at home (3-2), but their away form has been shaky at 1-3. One area they do stand out in is clearances, ranking 5th in the AFL. They'll need to bring that midfield grunt against the Cats to get back on track.
The Cats head into this clash with the Power looking to rebound after a heartbreaking loss to the Giants by the slimmest of margins at Kardinia Park. They’re 7th on the ladder with a 5-4 record and have gone 3-2 in their last five. Their strength lies in pressure and scoring — they’re ranked 1st in the AFL for tackles and 4th for goals kicked, so they know how to apply heat and hit the scoreboard. That said, they’ve had some issues with ball use, ranking 16th for disposals. They’ve been strong at home (3-1) but slightly patchy away (2-3), and will be fired up to get back in the winners’ column against the Power.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Geelong are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
The Over is 7-0 when the Cats travel to Adelaide.
GWS Giants (8th) vs Fremantle (11th)
The Giants head into this one sitting 8th on the ladder with a 5-4 record and looking to build on a mixed run of form. They've won just two of their last five but are coming off a strong performance where Jesse Hogan booted 7 goals and Tom Green racked up 37 disposals. They’ve been solid both home (2-1) and away (3-3), and their ball movement is a real strength — they’re ranked 2nd in the AFL for disposals. One area they’ll want to tidy up is clearances, where they sit last in the comp. Still, with their firepower and midfield engine ticking over, the Giants will be confident facing the Dockers.
The Dockers are coming off a 14-point loss to the Magpies at Perth Stadium and will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak. Sitting 11th on the ladder with a 4-5 record, they’ve had a mixed season so far, going 2-2 at home and 2-3 on the road. Brayshaw was a standout last week with 34 disposals, but the Dockers have struggled in key areas — ranking 14th in the league for clearances and 15th for disposals. They’ve dropped three of their last five and will need to lift across the board if they want to bounce back against a talented Giants outfit.
Stadium Record
GWS are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. Fremantle are 0-2 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The head to head is tied at 4-4 since 2018.
Best Bet
The Giants love playing at this venue, having won 18 of 19. The Dockers last trip interstate was a disaster so I don't have a lot of confidence in them getting an upset.
Greater Western Sydney 1-39 = $2.15
Western Bulldogs (6th) vs Essendon (9th)
The Bulldogs are looking to bounce back after a close 106-96 loss to the Suns at TIO Stadium, which snapped their winning streak. They sit 6th on the ladder with a solid 5-4 record and have won 3 of their last 5. While their tackling needs some work, ranking 16th in the AFL, they’ve been strong in plenty of other areas — they’re 2nd for clearances, 3rd for disposals and goals kicked, and also 2nd for inside 50 entries. In their last game, Liberatore was dominant with 35 disposals, and Kennedy kicked 3 goals, showing they’ve got plenty of firepower. With a 2-2 away record and 3-2 at home, the Bulldogs will be looking to get back to winning ways against the Bombers.
The Bombers are on a roll, coming off back-to-back wins and sitting 9th on the ladder with a solid 5-3 record. They beat the Swans by 8 points at Docklands last week, kicking 11 goals, with Martin racking up 38 disposals and Caddy slotting 3 goals. They’ve been strong at home with a 3-1 record and have managed 2 wins from 4 away games. The Bombers excel in disposals, ranked 1st in the AFL, but they do struggle in front of goal, sitting 15th for goals kicked and inside 50 entries. If they can clean that up, they’ll be a real threat against the Bulldogs.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Essendon are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs are 3-2 against the Bombers in the last 5.
Best Bet
Both sides are in good form and I think it will be high scoring under the roof. The Dogs are 8-1 at Marvel against the Over.
Richmond (16th) vs North Melbourne (17th)
The Tigers are having a rebuilding season, sitting 16th on the ladder with a 3-6 record. However, they’re coming off a close win over the Eagles at the MCG, which ended in a 2-point win. They’ve been much stronger at home with a 3-2 record, they’ll be hoping to build on that against the Kangaroos. They’re coming off a win, and with Lynch kicking 2 goals and Banks picking up 28 disposals last week
The Kangaroos are struggling this season, sitting 17th on the ladder with just 1 win from 8 games. They’re coming off a tough draw against Lions at Bellerive Oval and have now gone 0-1-4 in their last five games. Their only win this season came at home, but they’ve been poor on the road (0-4). Despite their tough form, they do excel in clearances, ranked 4th in the AFL. However, their inside 50 entries have been a major issue, sitting 16th in the league. Luke Davies-Uniacke had 32 disposals in their last match, and Darling kicked 2 goals, but the Kangaroos will need to improve across the board if they want to break their losing streak.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 1-3 (1 draw) in their last 5 games at this venue. North Melbourne are 0-9 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 4-3 against the Kangaroos since 2018.
Best Bet
I think the Tigers can make it 2 straight at the MCG. The home team is 6-1 ATS in this matchup.
Brisbane Lions (1st) vs Melbourne (15th)
The Lions are still sitting at the top of the ladder with a 7-1 record but last week's draw against the Roos was a shock. They’ve been particularly strong on the road with a 4-1-0 away record, and they’ve also performed well at home with a 3-1 record. Ranked 1st for clearances and 3rd for inside 50 entries, they’re dominating in these key areas. In their last match, Zorko racked up 39 disposals, while Hipwood and Rayner each kicked 3 goals. However, they’re coming off an unexpected draw against the Kangaroos at Bellerive Oval and their confidence may have suffered a bit after that.
The Demons are having a tough season, sitting 15th on the ladder with a 3-6 record. They’ve been poor on the road, with a 1-2 away record, and they’ve also struggled at home, sitting at 2-4. Their last game was a disappointing 35-point loss to the Hawks at the MCG, despite Langford kicking 3 goals and Bowey notching up 28 disposals. The Demons are ranked 5th in the AFL for disposals, but they’ve had real issues when it comes to scoring, ranking 16th for goals kicked. They’re currently on a losing streak and will need to improve their attacking game to turn things around.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Gabba. Melbourne are 5-4 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Lions hold a 4-1 record against the Demons.
Best Bet
The Lions are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 day games at the Gabba and Melbourne should be fired up for an upset after the Lions draw with the Roos.
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs St Kilda (12th)
The Eagles are struggling this season, sitting dead last on the ladder with a shocking 0-9 record. They’ve lost all five of their away games and four of their home games, making it a rough year so far. They’re ranked near the bottom in nearly every key statistic: 18th for clearances, disposals, and goals kicked, and 17th for inside 50 entries. Tackling has also been an issue, as they sit 15th in the AFL in that department. In their most recent game, they suffered a close defeat to the Tigers at the MCG, despite Cripps kicking 3 goals. It’s been a 9-game losing streak, and the Eagles will need to make some major improvements if they want to turn things around.
The Saints are currently sitting 12th on the ladder with a 4-5 record. They've struggled recently, coming off a 15-point loss to the Blues at the MCG and are on a 1-4 run in their last five games. While they’re ranked 5th in the AFL for tackling, their weaknesses are clear, particularly in inside 50 entries where they sit 14th. Wanganeen-Milera had a solid game with 30 disposals, but Higgins' injury is a blow to their forward line. Their home form is even, with a 3-3 record, while they’ve only won one out of three away games. With a few areas to improve, they’ll need to bounce back strong against the Eagles.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue. St Kilda are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Saints are 4-1 against the Eagles in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Saints have the wood over the Eagles, covering the line in 5 of 6 meetings. Should be an easy win.
