ANZAC Day is the highlight of Round 7 as the Pies and Bombers renew their rivalry at the MCG on Friday afternoon.
Melbourne (17th) vs Richmond (15th)
The Demons are coming off a solid 10-point win over Fremantle at the MCG, where they slotted 16 goals, including a standout 5-goal performance from Kossy Pickett. That victory snapped a rough run, with the team now on a one-game winning streak after losing their previous four. It's been a tough season overall, sitting 17th on the ladder with a 1-5 record. They haven't managed a win in away games yet (0-0-2), and their home form hasn't been much better at 1-0-3. The Demons have had real issues with clearances, goal-kicking, and tackling — ranking near the bottom of the league in all three areas. They'll be looking to build some momentum this week against the Tigers.
The Tigers are coming off an 11-point win over the Suns at Docklands, where they put through 12 goals. Tim Taranto was everywhere with 35 touches, leading the way in a much-needed win that snapped a four-game losing streak. They're now sitting 15th on the ladder with a 2-4 record, and while they've managed a couple of wins at home (2-0-2), they're still winless on the road (0-0-2). Like their opponents this week, the Tigers have had plenty of struggles — ranked near the bottom of the league for clearances, disposals, goals kicked, inside 50s, and tackles. They'll need to tidy up across the board if they want to keep the wins coming against the Demons.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 4-6 in their last 10 games at MCG. Richmond are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Demons hold a 5-0 record against the Tigers.
Best Bet
Both sides are coming off a win but scoring hasn't been easy for either team, so I like the Under trend in this matchup at night, the Under is 8-0.
Collingwood (1st) vs Essendon (11th)
The Magpies are flying right now, sitting on top of the ladder after a dominant 52-point win over the Lions at the Gabba, where they booted 16 goals. Nick Daicos was everywhere with 38 disposals, while Daniel McStay chipped in with 3 goals. That win made it five on the trot for the Pies, who now boast a 5-1 record overall. They've been perfect at home (3-0) and solid on the road too (2-0-1). They're one of the best in the league when it comes to inside 50s and tackling — ranked 5th in both categories — so they're bringing the pressure and getting plenty of looks up forward. They'll head into their clash with the Bombers full of confidence.
The Bombers are quietly building some momentum, now on a three-game winning streak after just edging out the Eagles by 2 points in Perth, where they kicked 11 goals. Peter Wright was a standout up forward with 6 majors, while Zac Merrett and Nic Martin both racked up 26 disposals. They're sitting 11th on the ladder with a 3-2 record, and have been solid both home (1-0-1) and away (2-0-1). Stat-wise, they're elite when it comes to clearances (ranked 5th) and lead the league in disposals, but they've struggled to make it count on the scoreboard and going inside 50, ranked 14th in both categories. Facing the top-of-the-table Magpies, they'll need to clean up those forward entries to stay competitive.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 7-3 in their last 10 games at MCG. Essendon are 4-5 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Magpies hold a 5-4 (1 draw) record against the Bombers.
Best Bet
Should be a cracker on Friday as both sides are playing good footy and hopefully, it will be high scoring as the Bombers are 5-0 against the Over in day games at the MCG.
Same Game Multi
It's usually a close contest in this matchup as the margin has fallen under 15 pts in 5 of the last 6 meetings. So I like the Bombers to cover.
Over 159.5 / Essendon +25.5 = $3.40
Fremantle (9th) vs Adelaide Crows (5th)
The Dockers are sitting just outside the top eight in 9th with a 3-3 record after going down to the Demons by 10 points at the MCG last round. Andy Brayshaw was a standout with 33 touches, but it wasn't quite enough to get them over the line. They've been a bit up and down, splitting their last five games 3-2, and their home (1-0-1) and away (2-0-2) form has been fairly balanced. The Dockers have had some issues around the contest, struggling with clearances, disposals, and tackles, all ranking in the bottom half of the league. That said, they've been efficient when they do get forward, sitting 5th in the comp for goals kicked. They'll be looking to bounce back this week against the Crows.
The Crows are sitting nicely in 5th spot with a 4-2 record and are coming off an 18-point win over the Giants at Adelaide Oval, where they kicked 7 goals. Taylor Walker chipped in with 2 majors in that one, and the team is now on a one-game winning streak. They've been strong at home (3-0-1) and solid on the road (1-0-1), and the stats back up their form — ranked top three in the league for clearances, disposals, and inside 50s, plus they're leading the comp for goals kicked. It's clear they know how to move the footy and make it count. Heading into their clash with the Dockers, the Crows are looking like one of the more well-rounded sides in the comp.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 6-3 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Adelaide are 2-4 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers are 4-1 against the Crows in the last 5.
Best Bet
The Crows were at their defensive best last week and hopefully, they bring that to WA. Freo are 8-1 against the Under in Friday night games so I'm going with the trend.
St Kilda (12th) vs Brisbane Lions (2nd)
The Saints have hit a bit of a rough patch, coming off back-to-back losses, including a heavy 71-point defeat to the Bulldogs at Docklands where they only managed 56 points. Higgins and Owens were the bright spots, each kicking 3 goals, but it was a tough day overall. They're now sitting 12th on the ladder with a 3-3 record. At home, they've been decent (2-0-1), but away from home it's been a mixed bag (1-0-2). One area that's been letting them down is their inside 50 count — they're ranked 15th in the league, which shows they're struggling to generate enough scoring opportunities. They'll need to lift across the board to challenge the Lions this week.
The Lions are sitting pretty in 2nd spot on the ladder with a 5-1 record, despite a tough 52-point loss to the Magpies at the Gabba last round. Hipwood snagged a couple of goals and Lachie Neale gathered 25 touches, but it just wasn't their day. That snapped a four-game winning streak, but overall, they've been impressive this season — especially on the road where they're unbeaten (3-0). They're ranked 2nd in the comp for clearances and 5th for goals kicked, so they're strong around the contest and know how to hit the scoreboard. Back at it this week against the Saints, the Lions will be keen to bounce straight back.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Brisbane are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 8-2 against the Saints since 2018.
Best Bet
Good conditions under the roof should see a free-flowing game and the Over is now 5-1 in the Saints last 6.
Port Adelaide (10th) vs North Melbourne (16th)
The Power are starting to find a bit of form, now on a two-game winning streak after knocking off the Swans by 8 points at the SCG, where they slotted 13 goals. Rioli and Georgiades both chipped in with 3 majors each, helping lift them to a 3-3 record for the season. They're currently sitting 10th on the ladder and have looked solid at home (2-0-1), while their away form has been a bit patchy (1-0-2). Stat-wise, they're strong with the footy in hand — ranked 5th in disposals — but they've had some issues at the contest, sitting low in both clearances and tackles. Up against the Kangaroos this week, the Power will be looking to keep the momentum going.
The Kangaroos are doing it tough right now, sitting 16th on the ladder with just one win from six games and coming off a brutal 82-point loss to the Blues at Docklands. Harry Sheezel was one of the few bright spots with 32 touches, and Luke Parker chipped in with 2 goals and will celebrate his 300th game this week. They're on a four-game losing streak and haven't won away from home yet (0-0-2). While they're ranked 4th in the league for disposals, they're really struggling to make it count on the scoreboard, especially with inside 50 entries where they sit 16th. Up against the Power, the Roos will need a massive lift to turn things around.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. North Melbourne are 0-7 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Power hold a 5-0 record against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
The Roos are giving up points like no tomorrow again and the Power should feast. I like the Over as it has saluted in the Roos last 4 interstate games.
GWS Giants (4th) vs Western Bulldogs (8th)
The Giants are sitting comfortably in 4th place on the ladder with a 4-2 record, despite a tough loss to the Crows last round at Adelaide Oval, where they went down 52-34. Lachie Whitfield had a standout performance with 39 disposals, but the team just couldn't get over the line. They've been strong overall, with a solid 3-0-2 record in their last five games and perfect at home (2-0-0). The Giants excel in disposals (ranked 2nd in the league) and tackling (ranked 4th), so they're usually dominant around the ball. Up against the Bulldogs, they'll be looking to bounce back and keep pushing for a top spot.
The Bulldogs are coming off a massive 71-point win over the Saints at Docklands, where they kicked 18 goals. Aaron Naughton was on fire with 3 goals, and despite a knee injury to Luke Darcy (luckily not an ACL), Marcus Bontempelli returned to form with 30 disposals and 2 goals. They're currently sitting 8th on the ladder with a 3-3 record and have been solid both at home (2-0-2) and away (1-0-1). The Dogs excel in going forward, ranked 4th in both goals kicked and inside 50 entries, so they've got plenty of attacking power. They'll be looking to build on their recent win and take down the Giants this week.
Stadium Record
GWS are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. The Bulldogs are 2-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Bulldogs have won 8 games against the Giants.
Best Bet
The Dogs looked impressive last week and got the Bont back in the lineup. They also love playing the Giants, having won 7 of the last 8 by a 1-39 margin. This could be an upset.
Western Bulldogs +11.5 = $1.90
Gold Coast Suns (3rd) vs Sydney Swans (14th)
The Suns are having a great season so far, sitting 3rd on the ladder with a 4-1 record, despite a close 80-69 loss to the Tigers at Docklands last round. Ben Long was a standout with 3 goals, and both Touk Miller and Noah Anderson racked up over 30 disposals. They've been strong on the road (3-0-1) and solid at home (1-0-0), and they're excelling in key areas — ranked 1st for inside 50 entries, 2nd for goals kicked, and 3rd for clearances. The Suns are looking to bounce back after their first loss of the season and keep their momentum going against the Swans.
The Swans are struggling this season with a 2-4 record, currently sitting in 14th place on the ladder. They're coming off a tight 8-point loss to the Power at the SCG, where Aaron Francis scored 3 goals as the sub, and Matty Roberts racked up 30 disposals across halfback. Their form at home has been tough, still searching for their first win there (0-0-3), while they've been better on the road with a 2-0-1 record. They're on a two-game losing streak and have been struggling with disposals (14th in the league) and goals kicked (15th). They'll need to improve in these areas if they want to turn things around against the Suns.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 4-1 against the Suns in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
If the Swans figure out their forward line issues, they should be able to cover against a side that just lost against Richmond. Sydney have a good record on the Goldy too.
Carlton (13th) vs Geelong Cats (6th)
The Blues are sitting in 13th place on the ladder with a 2-4 record, but they're on a two-game winning streak after a huge 82-point win over North Melbourne, where they kicked 24 goals at Docklands. Zac Williams and Charlie Curnow both kicked 4 goals, while George Hewett had 34 disposals. At home, they've been inconsistent, with a 1-0-2 record, but they've had better luck away, also with a 1-0-2 record. Despite their struggles, the Blues excel in some key areas, ranked 1st in the AFL for clearances and tackling, and 2nd for inside 50 entries. They'll be hoping to continue their winning form as they face the Cats.
The Cats are in strong form with a 4-2 record and a 3-game winning streak, most recently beating Hawthorn by 7 points at the MCG, kicking 12 goals. Patrick Dangerfield led the way with 3 goals, while Bailey Smith added 28 disposals. Their record at home is perfect so far (3-0-0), but they've struggled a bit away (1-0-2). They sit 6th on the ladder and are excelling in key areas, ranked 3rd in the AFL for goals kicked and 2nd for tackling. However, they do have issues with disposals, sitting 16th in that stat. The Cats will look to continue their winning streak when they face the Blues.
Stadium Record
In their last 5 games at MCG, Carlton holds a 0-5 record. Geelong are 5-5 in their last 10 games at MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Cats have won 3 games against the Blues.
Best Bet
The Blues have thrashed the Eagles and Roos as expected, but they'll find it much tougher against the Cats. So I'm going back to the low scoring trend, the Under is 6-0 in the Blues last 6 home games.
Hawthorn (7th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
The Hawks have had a solid season so far with a 4-2 record, but they're coming off two straight losses, most recently falling to the Cats by just 7 points at the MCG. They've been strong at home with a perfect 2-0-0 record, but have been a bit more mixed away (2-0-2). They're ranked 3rd in the AFL for tackling, which is one of their standout stats. In their last game, Mabior Chol and Jack Gunston both kicked 3 goals, while Karl Amon racked up 29 disposals and 7 inside 50s. Sitting 7th on the ladder, they'll be looking to bounce back and get back to winning ways against the Eagles.
The Eagles are back at the bottom of the ladder this season with a 0-6 record, and they're currently on a 6-game losing streak. They've yet to win a home or away game, sitting at the bottom of the ladder in 18th place. They've had issues across the board, ranking near the bottom in clearances, disposals, goals kicked, inside 50 entries, and tackling. In their last game, they came close but lost by just 2 points to the Bombers at Perth Stadium. Elijah Hewett showed some promise with 22 disposals and 2 goals, while Jake Waterman kicked 4 goals in the first quarter, but it wasn't enough to get the win. With no wins so far, they'll be looking to turn things around against the Hawks.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Marvel. West Coast are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 3-2 against the Eagles in the last 5.
Best Bet
After a few losses, the Hawks will be desperate to play well and I think they'll do it easily against a woeful Eagles defence. Hawthorn are 6-0 ATS when they face a bottom 4 side too.
