2025 AFL Round 6 Betting Predictions
Round 6 of the AFL season kicks off with an Easter tradition as the Lions host the Magpies at the Gabba on Thursday night footy.
Brisbane Lions (1st) vs Collingwood (4th)
The Lions head into their Round 6 showdown against the Magpies in red-hot form, sitting comfortably on top of the ladder with a flawless 5-0 record. Their most recent outing was an impressive 21-point win over the Western Bulldogs at Norwood Oval, where they piled on 18 goals. Eric Hipwood starred up forward with five majors, while Hugh McCluggage racked up 32 disposals to control the midfield. Their perfect 3-0 away record shows they can deliver outside of their home fortress too. Despite their dominance, there are a few cracks statistically. The Lions rank 16th in both disposals and tackles, and sit 14th for inside 50s — a surprising trend for an otherwise clinical outfit. Still, on a five-game winning streak and with finals footy clearly on the horizon, they’ll be tough to stop.
The Magpies are flying high with four straight wins under their belt and a strong 4-1 record heading into Round 6. Fresh off a convincing 31-point victory over the Swans at Adelaide Oval, Collingwood showed their scoring power with 16 goals, led by a dominant performance from Nick Daicos who collected 34 disposals. Currently sitting 4th on the ladder, the Pies have built their season on defensive strength, conceding just 343 points — one of the best in the competition. With a blockbuster against the ladder-leading Lions on the horizon, the Magpies will be out to make a serious statement.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Gabba. Collingwood are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The head-to-head has is tied at 6-6 since 2018.
Best Bet
I think this will be a close contest, hopefully like the 2023 GF when the two sides were separated by just 4 pts. The Pies are coming off a good win over Sydney and have a 7-0 ATS when they face a team that just won the premiership.
Same Game Multi
Jamie Elliott will play game 200 and I think he can hit the scoreboard. The Under is 6-0 in the Lions last 6 home games.
Collingwood +10.5 / Under 175.5 pts / Jamie Elliott Anytime Goalscorer = $4.30
North Melbourne (15th) vs Carlton (14th)
It’s been a tough stretch for the Kangaroos, who come into Round 6 on a three-game losing streak and sitting 15th on the ladder with a 1-4 record. Their latest outing was a 52-point loss to the Suns at Barossa Park, where despite the margin, Caleb Daniel put in a solid individual performance with 32 disposals. Offensively, North Melbourne has struggled to generate enough scoreboard pressure, managing 441 points for the season while conceding a whopping 551 — the highest in the league. While their away form remains winless, they’ll hope a return to familiar surroundings helps steady the ship. One clear strength for the Roos is their ball-winning ability. They rank 3rd in the AFL for disposals, indicating they can find the footy — but turning that possession into effective inside 50 entries remains an issue, with the team ranked 16th in that area.
The Blues finally snapped their losing streak in emphatic fashion, crushing the West Coast Eagles by 71 points at Adelaide Oval. They piled on 17 goals, with Corey Durdin slotting four and George Hewett starring through the middle with a game-high 39 disposals. Now 14th on the ladder with a 1-4 record, Carlton will be desperate to build on the momentum as they take on fellow battlers North Melbourne. Despite their low ladder position, the Blues have some standout strengths — they rank 2nd in the AFL for clearances, inside 50s, and tackles, showcasing their ability to win the ball and apply pressure. However, turning that dominance into scoreboard reward remains a problem. Carlton ranks just 14th for goals kicked, which has cost them in tight contests. Their away form hasn’t delivered either, with two losses on the road so far this season.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 3-7 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Carlton are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Blues are 4-1 against the Kangaroos in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Under is a great trend with the Blues playing - it's 11-0. Hopefully, the Roos come to play.
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Essendon (13th)
It’s been a nightmare start to the season for the Eagles, who remain winless after five rounds and sit anchored to the bottom of the ladder. Their most recent performance was a heavy 71-point defeat at the hands of the Blues, managing just 50 points while conceding 121 at Adelaide Oval. With a 0-5 record and the worst percentage in the competition, West Coast has struggled at both ends of the ground — scoring a league-low 293 points while giving up 589. Their weaknesses are widespread, ranking last in clearances, disposals, and goals kicked, and near the bottom for tackles and inside 50s. Neither home nor away form has offered much relief, and the Eagles are now on a five-game losing streak, desperate to find a spark and show signs of improvement.
The Bombers are beginning to hit their stride after a strong 39-point win over Melbourne in Round 5, where they booted 15 goals at Adelaide Oval to claim back-to-back victories. Now sitting 13th on the ladder with a 2-2 record and a game in hand, Essendon will be eyeing a third straight win as they take on a winless West Coast outfit. Statistically, the Bombers are one of the league’s strongest midfield units. They rank 1st in the AFL for disposals, 4th for clearances, and 5th for tackles — showcasing a well-rounded engine room that’s driving their recent form. Essendon has won once on the road this season, and they'll head into this matchup with plenty of confidence. Against the bottom-ranked Eagles, this presents a golden opportunity to boost percentage and continue their push toward finals contention.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 2-8 in their last 10 games at this venue. Essendon are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Bombers have won 6 games against the Eagles.
Best Bet
The Eagles are leaking points again and the Over is 5-1 in their last 6 at Optus.
Melbourne (17th) vs Fremantle (8th)
It’s been a brutal start to 2025 for the Demons, who are still searching for their first win after five straight losses. Sitting 17th on the ladder, Melbourne’s most recent outing was a 39-point defeat at the hands of the Bombers at Adelaide Oval, leaving them winless both at home and on the road. With just 305 points scored this season and 503 conceded, the Demons have struggled to find their rhythm at both ends of the ground. Their weaknesses are clear — they rank 16th in the AFL for clearances, 17th for goals kicked, and 15th for tackles.
The Dockers are on a roll, surging into Round 6 on a three-game winning streak and sitting 8th on the ladder with a 3-2 record. Their Round 5 performance was arguably their best yet — a dominant 61-point win over Richmond at Barossa Park, where they kicked 16 goals, including a career-best six from Josh Treacy. Fremantle’s rise has been driven by forward half pressure and attacking efficiency, with the Dockers ranked 4th in the AFL for inside 50s. With a 2-1 away record and plenty of confidence, the Dockers will head into this matchup as heavy favourites against a winless Melbourne side. It’s the kind of game Fremantle needs to win — and win well — to keep building momentum and separate themselves from the mid-table pack.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 0-5 in their last 5 games at this venue. Fremantle are 4-6 in their last 10 games at MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Dockers have won 4 games against the Demons.
Best Bet
Hard to get any confidence about the Dees so the Dockers to get the job done. They're 8-0 ATS against the Demons and Melbourne has lost 8 straight in Victoria.
Adelaide Crows (7th) vs GWS Giants (3rd)
Despite sitting 7th on the ladder with a 3-2 record, the Crows are in a mini-slump after dropping their last two games — most recently falling to the Cats by 19 points at Adelaide Oval. Darcy Fogarty was a bright spot up forward with four goals, while Brodie Smith racked up 35 disposals, but it wasn’t enough to stop the slide. Adelaide’s strength lies in its attacking flair and midfield depth. They’re ranked 1st in the AFL for goals kicked and sit inside the top three for clearances, disposals, and inside 50s — a clear sign they know how to win the ball and hit the scoreboard.
The Giants are flying high in 2025, sitting third on the ladder with a 4-1 record after a strong 28-point win over St Kilda in Round 5. They kicked 16 goals in that match — led by Toby Greene’s five — while Lachie Ash continued his strong form with 33 disposals. GWS have been one of the most balanced teams in the competition. They’re ranked 4th in goals kicked. Their midfield continues to get the job done, ranking 5th for disposals, and their pressure has been top-tier, sitting 4th for tackles. With a perfect 2-0 record at home and two wins on the road already, the Giants have proven they can win anywhere. They’ll now face a Crows outfit coming off two straight losses but boasting one of the most potent attacks in the comp.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. GWS are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Giants are 4-1 against the Crows in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
This should be a high-scoring affair with two in-form forward lines on show. The Over is also 7-1 in the Crows last 8 home games.
Richmond (16th) vs Gold Coast Suns (2nd)
The Tigers are in the midst of a four-game losing streak after a heavy 61-point loss to the Dockers at Barossa Park in Round 5. Sitting 16th on the ladder with just one win from five matches, Richmond’s season is in desperate need of a turnaround. The team’s struggles are evident across the board, ranking 15th for disposals, 16th for goals kicked, 17th for inside 50 entries, and 18th for tackling — a clear indication that they’re being beaten to the ball and struggling to apply consistent pressure. Richmond will be looking to bounce back in front of their home crowd, where they have a 1-2 record so far this season. With key players like Jack Hopper showing individual form, the Tigers need a collective effort to dig themselves out of their slump.
The Suns have been one of the standout teams of 2025, sitting 2nd on the ladder with a perfect 4-0 record. Their dominant 52-point win over North Melbourne in Round 5 saw them kick a massive 21 goals, including five from Ben King, as they continued to showcase their impressive attacking power. Gold Coast has been sensational in the midfield, ranked 1st in the AFL for clearances and inside 50 entries, while also sitting 2nd for goals kicked. They’ve been able to move the ball quickly and efficiently. Defensively, the Suns have been just as impressive, conceding only 290 points, making them one of the toughest sides to score against. With a flawless away record, the Suns will travel to Melbourne as clear favourites against a Tigers team struggling to find form.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 0-9 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Marvel. Gold Coast are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Suns have won 5 games against the Tigers.
Best Bet
The Suns are on fire and I think they'll enjoy playing at Marvel. The Tigers do not like it here, they've lost their last 6 and they're also 0-6 ATS when they face the Suns.
Sydney Swans (10th) vs Port Adelaide (11th)
The Swans will be looking to rebound after a tough 31-point loss to the Magpies in Round 5. Sitting 10th on the ladder with a 2-3 record, Sydney has shown promise but will need to tighten up in key areas to become a finals contender. Their offensive output has been relatively strong, but defensively they’ve conceded 408 points — indicating they’ve been vulnerable at times. The Swans’ struggles in clearances and disposals have been key factors in their inconsistency, often failing to get first use of the ball and control the tempo of the game. These issues will need to be addressed against the Power, who have the tools to capitalize on such weaknesses. Despite their struggles, the Swans have been solid on the road, with a 2-0-1 away record, showing that they are capable of challenging teams in unfamiliar territory. With a home record of 0-2 so far, they’ll need to improve their form on home turf.
Port Adelaide will look to build on their recent 30-point victory over Hawthorn in Round 5 as they aim to find more consistency in a season that’s been up and down. With a 2-3 record and sitting 11th on the ladder, the Power have shown flashes of brilliance but have struggled to put together a sustained run of good form. The Power's strengths are in their disposal efficiency, and they’ve shown an ability to move the ball well through the midfield, with Zak Butters leading the charge. However, their tackling efforts have been a weak point, ranking 14th in the AFL. They’ll need to apply more pressure on the ball carrier to keep the Swans in check and ensure they don’t get easy entry into their forward line. Port Adelaide has been solid at home with a 2-0-1 record, but their struggles on the road will need to be addressed, especially in a competitive match like this one against the Swans
Stadium Record
Sydney are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Port Adelaide are 2-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Power are 7-1 against the Swans.
Best Bet
Port were impressive against the Hawks last week and I think they head to Sydney with a lot of confidence. The Swans have plenty of experience on the sideline too. Port are 4-1 as an underdog in this matchup.
Western Bulldogs (12th) vs St Kilda (9th)
The Bulldogs will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak when they face the Saints in Round 6. After a tough 21-point loss to the Lions at Norwood Oval, they are now 2-3 on the season and sitting 12th on the ladder. With 444 points scored and 463 conceded, the Bulldogs have shown they can compete, but their defensive struggles have been apparent, particularly in high-pressure moments. With a solid home record of 1-0-2, the Bulldogs will be hoping to regain their form on their home ground. However, they’ll need to tighten their defence and improve their consistency if they are to take down a Saints team that has proven capable of turning the game in their favour. While the Bulldogs' attacking line has been potent, they have struggled to convert their dominance into consistent victories. Their midfield strength will need to shine, and they’ll need to limit the Saints' impact on the scoreboard to turn their season around.
The Saints will be aiming to bounce back from a 28-point loss to the Giants in Round 5 when they face the Bulldogs in a crucial match. Sitting 9th on the ladder with a 3-2 record, the Saints have shown plenty of promise this season but need to recover from their recent dip in form. They’ll be keen to regain their winning ways, especially after a narrow defeat at Norwood Oval. The Saints have been impressive in key areas, ranking 5th in the AFL for clearances and goals kicked, while also boasting a solid 1-0-1 away record. However, they’ll need to improve their defensive efficiency after conceding 461 points this season. Their ability to win clearances and capitalize on their forward pressure will be key in overcoming a Bulldogs team that’s been solid in attack. With a good record at home, the Saints will want to come out strong and assert their dominance in this matchup to stay competitive in the top half of the ladder. This game will be important for maintaining momentum and ensuring they don’t slip further down the standings.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Marvel. St Kilda are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Bulldogs hold a 3-2 record against the Saints.
Best Bet
The trend is the Over with the Saints, it's 4-1 in their last 5 and the Dogs are leaking pts too.
Geelong Cats (6th) vs Hawthorn (5th)
The Cats will be looking to extend their winning streak to three games when they face the Hawks in Round 6. After a hard-fought 19-point victory over the Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, the Cats are now 3-2 on the season and sitting 6th on the ladder. With 503 points scored and 383 conceded, they’ve shown a potent attack and a solid defence. One of the standout features of the Cats' game has been their tackling, as they rank 1st in the AFL for this key stat. With players like P. Dangerfield and J. Cameron firing, the Cats’ forward line will be a significant threat to the Hawks’ defence. They also excel in goals kicked, ranking 3rd in the AFL, making them a dynamic and hard-to-stop team when they hit their stride. With a solid home record of 2-0-0, the Cats will be confident heading into this matchup. However, they will need to maintain their focus and intensity, as the Hawks are always capable of turning up the heat, especially when underdogs. The Cats' key strengths in clearances, tackling, and scoring should give them the edge, but they’ll need to make sure they avoid complacency and play a complete game to take the victory.
The Hawks will be eager to bounce back after a tough 30-point loss to the Power in Round 5, as they prepare to face the Cats in Round 6. Despite the setback, the Hawks have been impressive this season with a 4-1 record and are currently sitting 5th on the ladder. Their attacking prowess is evident, having scored 454 points so far, while their defence has been solid with 406 points against. The Hawks’ strength lies in their inside 50 entries, where they rank 5th in the AFL, and their tackling, where they rank 3rd. This high-pressure game style will be crucial when they take on a Cats team known for its strong tackling and potent forward line. J. Gunston, who kicked 6 goals in their last game, will be key in leading the Hawks’ attack against a Cats defence that is tough to break. With a perfect home record of 2-0-0, the Hawks will be confident of turning their fortunes around at home and aiming to maintain their strong position on the ladder. Their combination of clean inside entries and aggressive tackling could help them neutralize the Cats’ strengths, but they’ll need to sharpen their attack and finish strong to get the better of a well-rounded Cats team.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. In their last 5 games at MCG, Hawthorn holds a 5-0 record.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Cats hold a 6-4 record.
Best Bet
The Hawks should bounce back at the MCG but the Cats won't be easy, especially with Danger kicking goals. So I like the Over on Easter Monday, it's 7-0 when the Cats are at the MCG.
