2024 AFL Finals Week 1 Betting Predictions
The AFL finals are finally here after a week off. We have four exciting matchups to watch over the weekend and the action starts in Adelaide on Thursday night footy with the Power hosting the Cats.
Port Adelaide Power (2nd) vs Geelong Cats (3rd)
The Power head into the finals on a 6 game winning streak and will look to put their straight-sets exit from last year's finals behind them. They beat the Cats back in Round 10 by a goal, which was their first win in Geelong since the early 2000s. Also, Port have defeated the Cats in their last 2 qualifying finals meetings - 2021 and 2020. If they want to make the Grand Final this year, the Power must win this final at home to give them the best chance. Their backline will be a bit weaker without Dan Houston and Kane Farrell. That could see Quinton Narkle get his opportunity - against his former team.
The Cats got the job done in the last round, smashing the Eagles 168-75 and sealed up a top 4 spot in the process. Geelong will be out for revenge after losing to the Power in May at the Cattery. They also have a poor record in qualifying finals, losing 5 of their last 6. But they should get Sam De Koning and Mark O'Connor back in the lineup. Also, veterans Cam Guthrie and Tom Hawkins could make a return to the team as well, giving them even more finals experience.
The Under has saluted in 6 of the Cats last week 1 finals and the Power have allowed under 70 pts in their last 5 games.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. Geelong are 4-1 in their last 5 games at the Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
Western Bulldogs (6th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (7th)
The Dogs are coming into the finals as one of the form teams, especially in the bottom half of the top eight. They knocked off the Giants 98-61 in Ballarat in the last round and have won 6 of their last 7 games. Adam Treloar missed the last game with injury but is expected to return on Friday night footy. Jason Johannisen could get a call-up into the side after playing in the VFL. They lost against the Hawks back in Round 8 by 7 pts, so the likes of the Bont will be out to make amends.
It's hard to remember, but the Hawks were 0-5 and looking at a bottom 4 finish. But a remarkable turnaround has seen them win 14 of their last 18 games. They are super dangerous if they can beat the Dogs. There is some concern about their lead up into the finals as they played both bottom sides in Round 23 and 24. Both games were blowouts so they haven't had a tough game since Round 21 against the Giants. Will Day is also out of the side with injury and that should see Finn Maginness get a role, he's coming off 31 disposals against the Roos.
The Over looks the safest bet in this clash as the Dogs are 4-0 against the Over.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 4-4 at this venue since 2021. Hawthorn are 5-5 in their last 10 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Bulldogs are 5-4 against the Hawks.
Best Bet
Sydney Swans (1st) vs GWS Giants (4th)
The Swans are the minor premiers and will go into the Sydney derby as favourites at the SCG. After losing by over 100 pts in Round 21, the Swans bounced back to win their last 3 games against the Pies, Bombers and Crows. They also get Heeney and McCartin back after they were rested from the last round. Meanwhile, Papley and Justin McInerney should be back into the squad after missing time with injury. They beat the Giants in both meetings this season. The first was at the SCG, 98-69. Then in June, they kicked 45 pts in the 2nd quarter on their way to a 102-75 victory.
The Giants had their 7 game winning streak ended in the last round loss against the Dogs in Ballarat. However, their form against Sydney in finals looks good and I'm not too worried, they'll be fired up for this one. In the last 3 finals between the two sides, the Giants have won all 3. They should get Brent Daniels back from injury and they missed him against the Dogs. Isaac Cumming could be a good replacement for the suspended Lachie Ash. Toby Bedford is one to watch at training as he'll need to pass a fitness test.
The Swans have a 7-1 record against the Over at home and the Giants are in good scoring form too.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 8-2 in their last 10 games at the SCG. GWS are 2-2 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Swans hold a 7-3 record against the Giants.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions (5th) vs Carlton Blues (8th)
The Lions overcame the Bombers in the last round of the season by 20 pts and that was important considering they had lost their last 2 against the Giants and Pies. Their form at the Gabba this season hasn't been as good as the past, but they've still won 7 of the last 10 in Brissy. This will be a rematch of the 2023 preliminary final when the Lions rallied from a 30 pt deficit. Lachie Neale was the key in that game with 23 touches and 8 clearances. Their defence could get boosted by the return of Jack Payne and likely Brandon Starcevich as well.
The Blues scraped into the finals thanks to the Power beating the Dockers in the final game of the regular season. Carlton fans were heartbroken in Round 24 as the Saints stole victory at Marvel, winning 76-74. Coming into the finals, the Blues have been poor at the end of the season, losing 6 of their last 8. But injuries have been the real story as they've been without some big names, such as McKay, Curnow and Docherty. However, that could change on Saturday night as Docherty is expected to make a remarkable comeback from an ACL. Curnow, McKay, McGovern and Williams are expected to play as well. So I wouldn't write them off, especially after losing a close one at the Gabba in the finals last season.
The Lions are 5-1 against the 1-39 margin when they face the Blues. Carlton are a bit disjointed with injuries and form so it's hard to trust them.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Gabba. Carlton are 1-2 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 4-1 against the Blues in the last 5.
Best Bet
