2024 AFL Round 21 Betting Predictions
Only a few weeks left until the AFL finals so Round 21 is massive for the top 8. It starts with a huge clash between the red-hot Doggies and the desperate Demons at Marvel on Friday night footy.
Western Bulldogs (8th) vs Melbourne Demons (11th)
The Bulldogs have finally made it back into the top eight for the first time since round six, thanks to winning 8 out of their last 11 games. They're looking strong, especially after their first three-game winning streak of the season, and have a well-rounded team that could be a big threat in the finals.
Melbourne gave GWS a bit of a scare towards the end, but they were outplayed for most of the game, leaving them a win and a significant percentage outside the top eight. The Demons' chances of making the finals are pretty slim now, but if they can quickly turn things around, they could at least match the Dogs on points.
The Doggies are on fire but the Dees are desperate for a win. So I like the Over, which is 6-0 in this matchup.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Melbourne are 5-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 3-1 (1 draw) against the Bulldogs in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles (16th) vs Gold Coast Suns (13th)
West Coast made an early statement against their rival Fremantle but got overwhelmed in the second half, marking their ninth straight loss. Now, the Eagles are hoping to challenge the Suns, who haven't won an away game yet this season, with coach Jarrad Schofield running out of time to secure his first win.
Gold Coast just faced their first home defeat in the Q-Clash, losing to their arch-rival Brisbane late in the game. Now, they need to bounce back on the road to keep their slim finals hopes alive. The Suns don't have much room for error but have a friendlier schedule coming up, with games against the struggling Bombers, Demons and Tigers.
The Suns have struggled on the road but I think they finally get a win. They smashed the Eagles last time at this venue and have a good record against them.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue. Gold Coast are 2-3 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Suns are 4-1 against the Eagles in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
North Melbourne Kangaroos (17th) vs Richmond Tigers (18th)
North Melbourne had some good moments against Geelong, especially with their fast start, but ultimately the difference between the finals contenders and the rest became clear. This week, the Kangaroos are up against a team more on their level, in a game that could determine this year's wooden spoon. Alastair Clarkson's side is also aiming to avoid finishing in the bottom two for the fifth year in a row.
Richmond managed to avoid getting blown away by the reigning premiers, Collingwood, and even showed some promise with a strong finish. However, the Tigers need to play well for the whole game this week and push for a win to leapfrog the Roos and get out of the bottom spot, even though they haven't won at this venue since 2021.
The battle for the spoon should be a tight contest and I like the Under, it's 6-1 when these two sides meet.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue. Richmond are 2-7 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Tigers are 4-2 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (6th) vs Adelaide Crows (15th)
Geelong did what they needed to do to brush aside North Melbourne and boost their finals hopes with their fourth win in five matches. The Cats might not be as dominant as they were earlier in the season, but they can still push for a top-four finish with upcoming games against the Crows, Saints, and Eagles, who are mostly playing for pride.
Adelaide looked like they might shake up the finals spots even after falling out of contention, but a poor performance against Hawthorn last week hurt their chances. The Crows still have a chance to influence the top eight with four more games against hopefuls, starting with the Cats, but it's at a venue where they've lost 13 in a row since 2004.
The Cats are 13-0 against the Crows at the Cattery and it's hard to trust the Crows at the moment.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Adelaide are 0-2 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Cats hold a 4-1 record against the Crows.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power (7th) vs Sydney Swans (1st)
Port Adelaide has bounced back from a mini-slump to win four of their last five games and now sits just outside the top four on percentage. With the competition at the top being so tight, the Power need to beat the ladder-leading Sydney for the eighth time in a row to hold onto their spot in the eight.
Sydney looked unstoppable with a 13-1 record, but warning bells are ringing after losing four of their last five matches, including a heavy loss to the Western Bulldogs last week. The Swans have been hit hard by injuries to key players, but they could secure a top-four finish with their first win over the Power since 2016.
The Under is 4-0 in this matchup and I think it will be a defensive grind.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 6-4 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at the Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Power are 6-0 against the Swans.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies (12th) vs Carlton Blues (4th)
Collingwood broke their four-match losing streak under coach Craig McRae with a better performance against bottom-placed Richmond, keeping their finals hopes alive. Now, the Magpies need to build on that to challenge the Blues and disrupt their old rivals' top-four hopes while celebrating their former skipper's milestone match in style.
Carlton has been struggling lately, losing three of their last four matches to finals contenders, exposing their lack of midfield depth. However, the Blues will aim to match their arch-rivals in the midfield and take advantage of playing at a venue where they have won 11 of their last 13 games.
Should be a tough clash as always and the Over is 9-1 in the Blues last 10 so I like the chances of a high-scoring affair.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 2-3 in their last 5 games at the MCG. Carlton are 8-2 in their last 10 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Magpies hold an 8-2 record.
Best Bet
GWS Giants (5th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (9th)
GWS is on the brink of the top four after four consecutive wins, even though they were inconsistent against Melbourne last week. The Giants face a tough road ahead with matches against the in-form Hawks, Lions, Dockers, and Bulldogs, making it a challenging path to secure a finals spot.
Hawthorn has completely turned their season around with 11 wins from their last 14 matches, hitting top form in recent weeks. Back-to-back 11-goal victories over the Magpies and Crows have boosted their percentage, and another big win this week could see coach Sam Mitchell's side finally break into the top eight.
Both sides are in winning form so I can see both forward lines having a good day. The Over is also 5-1 in the Giants last 6 games.
Stadium Record
GWS are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Giants are 3-2 against the Hawks in the last 5.
Best Bet
Essendon Bombers (10th) vs Fremantle Dockers (3rd)
Essendon has fallen out of the top eight for the first time since round five after losing six of their last eight matches and now has little time to turn things around. However, a win over the Dockers could give the struggling Bombers' finals hopes a much-needed boost, especially with tough games against the Swans and Lions still to come.
Fremantle is pushing hard for a top-four finish with five wins in their last six matches and might start aiming for a home final. The Dockers shouldn't be too worried about facing the out-of-sorts Bombers at the MCG, where they've won three of their four matches since the start of last year.
Freo are the form team in this matchup and hold a 10-1 ATS record against the Bombers.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. Fremantle are 3-2 in their last 5 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
The Bombers are 5-3 against the Dockers since 2018.
Best Bet
St Kilda Saints (14th) vs Brisbane Lions (2nd)
St Kilda has found some late-season form with three wins in their last four matches, including a big victory over Essendon last week. The Saints have started scoring heavily, passing the 100 mark in consecutive weeks after doing so only twice earlier this season. This change of fortunes might be as frustrating as it is exciting for their fans.
Brisbane has cemented itself as a serious flag contender with eight consecutive victories, climbing from as low as 13th place just six weeks ago. The Lions' aggressive style suits the dry conditions on their home turf and under the roof at this venue, where they've won eight of their last 10 matches since the start of 2021.
The Saints are showing some last-season form and have kicked 100+ pts in 2 straight so I think this will be high-scoring against the Lions. The Over is 8-3 in their last 11.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Lions are 7-2 against the Saints.
Best Bet
