2024 AFL Round 20 Betting Predictions
The AFL finals are just around the corner and Round 20 is a massive weekend for the top 8. It starts with a huge clash between the Blues and Power on Friday night footy at Marvel.
Carlton Blues (2nd) vs Port Adelaide Power (7th)
Carlton snapped their two-game losing streak by edging out North Melbourne, keeping their top-four hopes alive. However, they now face a streaky Port Adelaide with only a five-day break. The Blues will be without their rising ruckman Tom De Koning due to injury and will need to regain their strength at stoppages, which was key to their mid-season surge.
Port Adelaide bounced back into the finals by gradually overpowering Richmond for a crucial win. They still have a shot at a top-four spot, but there's no room for slip-ups with tough matches against the Blues and Swans next, plus a showdown and the in-form Dockers still to come.
Like the Over to kick off the round. The Blues are 9-0 against the Over and the Power have won 10 of their last 11 at the venue.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 17-11 at this venue since 2021. Port Adelaide are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Blues hold a 3-2 record against the Power.
Best Bet
North Melbourne Kangaroos (17th) vs Geelong Cats (6th)
North gave Carlton a big scare, almost pulling off an upset, but a third-quarter lapse and late mistakes cost them. The Kangaroos have shown promise since their breakthrough win in round 13, with their talented midfield starting to shine. However, they now face their bogey team, Geelong, who have won the last 12 meetings since 2016.
Geelong seemed to be back on track with three straight wins against finals contenders but struggled in muddy conditions as the Western Bulldogs exposed weaknesses at their home ground. Now, the Cats hit the road, heading to Hobart for the third time in four seasons to face the Kangaroos, having won their previous games there by an average of 40 points.
Geelong are 12-0 against the Roos and North don't play that well in Tassie.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 2-12 at this venue since 2021. Geelong are 2-0 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 12-0 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns (12th) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)
Gold Coast struggled on the road again, paying the price for poor goal-kicking in their loss to Greater Western Sydney. The Suns are unbeaten at home this season but face a tough challenge in the QClash against Brisbane. They also need to start winning away, with only one more home game left after the Lions match.
Brisbane is on a hot streak, winning seven in a row and only losing once since round seven, climbing to third place. However, the Lions won't take their local rivals lightly, especially after the Suns broke a long losing streak by winning the QClash at home last year.
Should be a high-scoring game on the Gold Coast in good conditions. The Over is also 8-0 when the Suns are at home.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Lions have won 9 games against the Suns.
Best Bet
St Kilda Saints (15th) vs Essendon Bombers (8th)
St Kilda had their biggest win since Ross Lyon’s return, scoring 17 goals to thrash West Coast last week. It was only the third time this year the Saints have scored over 100 points, and they might use a similar attacking strategy against the Bombers, who haven't kept an opponent under 80 points since round 12.
Essendon has fallen out of the top four and is in danger of missing the finals after losing five of their last seven games. They blew a three-goal lead late against the Crows last week and need to bounce back quickly against the improving Saints, especially with games against three of the current top four teams still to come.
The Saints are 10-1 against the Under at Marvel and hopefully this will be another low scoring grind.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. Essendon are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Bombers have won 3 games against the Saints.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons (10th) vs GWS Giants (5th)
Melbourne got overwhelmed by Fremantle for the second time this season, struggling at stoppages and losing the clearances 47-16. This heavy defeat knocked the Demons out of the top eight, but they still control their own fate with five matches against other finals contenders coming up.
GWS is back in top-four contention with three straight wins, including an easy home victory over Gold Coast last week. The Giants have their running game firing again and could solidify their premiership credentials with another win at the MCG ahead of a tough run home.
The last 9 games at the MCG involving the Dees have gone Under.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the MCG. GWS are 4-6 in their last 10 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 3-2 against the Giants in the last 5.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers (4th) vs West Coast Eagles (16th)
Fremantle made a big statement in round 12 by thumping Melbourne, and they proved their top-four credentials even more with a dominant display against the same side last week. The Dockers are playing to their strengths, with their ruck duo and midfield crushing the Demons 47-16 in clearances, making it the perfect tune-up for this week's Western Derby.
West Coast was at its peak when they stunned Fremantle in round six, but reality hit hard with 10 losses in their last 11 matches. The Eagles might be focusing on reviewing and developing their list, but they’d love to put a dent in their arch-rivals' top-four hopes, which would be a sweet end to a tough season.
This is like the Eagles Grand Final and I think they'll be fired up to give the Dockers a close game. They also won the first derby this year.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 6-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. West Coast are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies (13th) vs Richmond Tigers (18th)
Collingwood has lost four in a row for the first time under coach Craig McRae, putting their premiership defence in serious jeopardy even before the home and away season ends. The Magpies need to quickly turn things around and beat the Tigers to stay in the finals race, especially with the top three teams coming up next.
Richmond is looking for any signs of hope as they stumble through a tough first season under coach Adem Yze. The Tigers have lost their last five games by an average of 45 points, and at this point, their goal might be just winning a quarter for the first time since their surprising victory over the Crows in round 13.
A must win for the Pies and I think they get the job done against the rebuilding Tigers.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 4-5 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at the MCG. Richmond are 1-9 in their last 10 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the head to head is squared at 2-2 (1 draw).
Best Bet
Sydney Swans (1st) vs Western Bulldogs (9th)
Sydney is still comfortably at the top of the ladder, even though their form has dipped with three losses in their last four games, allowing the competition to catch up. Each of those defeats has been by less than a goal, but instead of worrying about close contests, the Swans are likely more concerned about their growing injury list.
The Doggies have gone from being one of the most inconsistent teams to one of the hottest, with back-to-back wins over top-four teams. However, they face an even bigger test ahead. The Dogs gave the Swans a tough match last time and seem to be catching the ladder-leaders at a good time, with Sydney's form and fitness issues exposing weaknesses.
The last 5 games at the SCG have gone Over and the Doggies travel to Sydney in great form having kicked over 90 pts in their last 2.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 8-2 in their last 10 games at the SCG. The Bulldogs are 0-2 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 4-1 against the Bulldogs in the last 5.
Best Bet
Adelaide Crows (14th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (11th)
Adelaide got a sweet dose of revenge by snatching victory with three late goals against Essendon, making it three wins in their last four games. The Crows might be out of the top eight race, but they can still impact which teams make it, with five matches against finals hopefuls coming up.
Hawthorn has been climbing the ladder with nine wins in their last 11 matches, allowing the fewest points in the competition during this hot streak, but they still haven't cracked the top eight. The Hawks might have lost their last two games at this venue, but they’re now playing with an energy and enthusiasm that makes them a tough opponent anytime, anywhere.
Tough game to split in the head to head. So I like the Over, it's 6-1 when the Crows are playing in day conditions.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 4-5 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. Hawthorn are 1-3 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 3-1 (1 draw) against the Crows in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
