2024 AFL Round 19 Betting Predictions
Round 19 should be another great weekend of AFL action, highlighted by the Swans and Lions clash on Sunday afternoon. But on Friday night, the Crows will look to keep their season alive against the Bombers on Friday night footy at Marvel.
Essendon Bombers (6th) vs Adelaide Crows (14th)
Essendon has slipped out of the top four after losing four of their last six games, but they're hoping to bounce back at a venue where they've won all five games this season. While they still need to prove themselves against the top contenders, they have a perfect record against the teams already out of finals contention, including Adelaide.
Adelaide has shown some signs of getting back on track at home recently, including a solid win over St Kilda, but they haven't won an away game since beating North Melbourne in Hobart in round seven. The Crows are looking to change that and break a seven-match losing streak against the Bombers, which included a controversial loss earlier this year.
The Crows should be desperate to win with their season on the line and the underdog has an 8-0 ATS record when the Bombers are playing at Marvel.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. Adelaide are 3-6 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Bombers are 7-0 against the Crows.
Best Bet
St Kilda Saints (15th) vs West Coast Eagles (16th)
St Kilda came from behind to beat West Coast by kicking five of the last six goals just seven weeks ago, but this time they’re hoping for an easier win on their home turf. The Saints have won two of their three home games since then, only losing by two points to the Power, but they'll need to up their scoring since they've only averaged 65 points in those games.
West Coast recently said goodbye to their premiership-winning coach Adam Simpson and started a new chapter with a brave effort against the in-form Brisbane. Despite that, the Eagles have lost seven games in a row and haven't won an away game this season. They're aiming to build some momentum from the new-coach effect before next week's Western Derby.
The Eagles have a woeful 1-26 record away from Perth and I think the Saints get the job done easily.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. West Coast are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Saints hold a 4-1 record against the Eagles.
Best Bet
GWS Giants (7th) vs Gold Coast Suns (11th)
Greater Western Sydney has finally strung together back-to-back wins for the first time since they kicked off the season with five straight victories. A third consecutive win could push them as high as fourth place. The Giants have rediscovered their groove, scoring 35 goals in the past two weeks after averaging just 10 in their previous eight matches, even though they’re still waiting for some top players to return.
Gold Coast has continued its wild streak of winning all nine home games while losing every away game, and now they’re hoping to break that pattern at a venue where they’ve never won in six tries. But there’s not much to suggest that the Suns will change their away game fortunes this week, especially against a team they've only beaten once in their last 13 meetings.
I like the Over in this one, it's 4-0 in the Giants last 4 games and the Round 4 clash saw over 200 pts.
Stadium Record
GWS are 14-9 at this venue since 2021. Gold Coast are 0-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Giants are 4-1 against the Suns in the last 5.
Best Bet
Hawthorn Hawks (13th) vs Collingwood Magpies (12th)
Hawthorn showed a glimpse of their potential when they pushed the reigning premier to within a kick the last time they played. Since then, the Hawks have won nine out of 13 matches and are now solidly in the finals race. They could jump past the Magpies and get close to the top eight.
Collingwood has lost three in a row for the first time since their slow start to the season, putting their premiership defence in serious trouble. The Magpies risk falling out of touch with the top eight, especially with tough games against Carlton, Sydney and Brisbane coming up.
I can see a tough defensive slog between these two sides and the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 3-7 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Collingwood are 5-4 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Magpies are 3-2 against the Hawks in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power (9th) vs Richmond Tigers (18th)
Port Adelaide has fallen out of the top eight for the first time this season after becoming the latest team to struggle at Gold Coast's home ground, making it four losses in their last six games. With their form slipping and tough matches against top teams Sydney and Carlton coming up, the Power have little room for error now.
Richmond fought hard against the Giants and might have come even closer if their goalkicking had been as accurate, despite having more inside 50s (53-36). The Tigers have been looking more dangerous as they find more ways to score, with Steely Green impressing with three goals in just his third game.
Port aren't in the best form so I think the Tigers can push them all the way. Richmond has a 4-0 ATS record against Port in Adelaide too.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 6-4 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. Richmond are 3-2 in their last 5 games at the Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
The Power are 6-5 against the Tigers since 2018.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (3rd) vs Western Bulldogs (10th)
Geelong is back in the top four for the first time since round 12 after pulling away from reigning premiers Collingwood and taking advantage of other finals hopefuls stumbling. A win over the Bulldogs could solidify their double chance, especially with four games against teams already out of contention coming up.
The Bulldogs are one of the most unpredictable teams but showed they could still make an impact by beating Carlton, making it six wins from their last nine matches. They ended an 11-match losing streak at Geelong's home ground last year, but they'll be cautious against a Cats side that is finding their form again.
Should be high scoring at the Cattery and the Dogs are 9-3 against the Over in their last 12.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. The Bulldogs are 1-2 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Cats hold a 7-3 record against the Bulldogs.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions (4th) vs Sydney Swans (1st)
Brisbane has climbed into the top four after being as low as 13th mid-season and now has a chance to show they're serious contenders against the top team. The Lions have turned their home ground into a stronghold, winning their last five games there, but they might want to avoid a high-scoring game against a Sydney team that has scored over 100 points 11 times this year.
Sydney bounced back after two close losses with a big win over North Melbourne, but they'll face a tougher test against last year's runner-up, Brisbane, on their home turf. The Swans need to improve their slow starts, having failed to lead by more than a goal at the first break in the last nine weeks. They can't afford to give the Lions any leeway as they aim for their seventh straight win.
Good conditions in Brissy should see both sides hit the scoreboard. The over is also 8-1 in the Lions last 9 games.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Gabba. Sydney are 1-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Lions hold a 4-1 record against the Swans.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers (5th) vs Melbourne Demons (8th)
Fremantle established themselves as top-four contenders when they crushed Melbourne by 92 points just seven weeks ago in Alice Springs. The Dockers have won three out of five games since then, but a loss to the Hawks last week has put them back in the mix, and they could drop out of the top eight with another defeat, especially with the Western Derby coming up.
Melbourne made it two wins in a row with an impressive victory over Essendon, even without their captain Max Gawn. This win put them back in the top eight for the first time since round 11. The Demons can leapfrog the Dockers and get close to the top four with their first road win since rounds four and five at Adelaide Oval.
Freo smashed the Dees last time and no Max Gawn for Melbourne will make it tough.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 6-3 in their last 10 games at the Perth Stadium. Melbourne are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers are 3-2 against the Demons in the last 5.
Best Bet
Carlton Blues (2nd) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (17th)
Carlton seemed like the top challenger to Sydney but now risks dropping out of the top four after two straight losses. Last time they played North Melbourne, Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay combined for nine goals, but this time they'll be up against a more settled Roos defence.
North Melbourne was brought back down to earth with a 79-point loss to ladder leaders Sydney after a promising month of results. Facing a tough challenge against a Carlton team eager to bounce back, the Kangaroos might fancy their chances with their emerging midfield testing the title contenders.
Carlton are 8-0 against the Over and North just conceded 138 pts last week.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. North Melbourne are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Blues are 4-1 against the Kangaroos in the last 5.
Best Bet
