AFL Finals week 1
Port Adelaide vs Geelong Cats, Adelaide Oval, Aug 27th, 7.50pm
Cracking match to kick off the finals series between two teams that play very fast footy. The Cats last weekend blew a chance to finish on top of the ladder losing to Melbourne after the siren, in a game they were leading by 40+ points at one stage. Positive for the Cats here is that they beat the Power a few weeks ago at this venue and they welcome back Mitch Duncan. The Power are flying, knocking off the Dogs last weekend to finish in the top two. They are a serious side that are in form, and they look the team to beat heading into September. Many will be surprised with my tip of the Cats but Tom Hawkins' 300th game, this side will lift. I don’t think it will matter that Port have the home ground advantage, Cats will be up for it. Cats by 10+
Head 2 Head
Cats have won two of the last three games vs the Power
Best bet
Cats win $2.15
Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants, UTS, Aug 28th 3.20pm
A Sydney Derby in a final, it has happened before, and it was a cracker. The Giants are heading into this final series with a bit of form and will look to knock big brother off in a final again. From memory, the ledger is 2-0 to the Giants. Toby Greene will be at his absolute best and if the Swans can stop him, they will most likely win this contest. The Swans had a training run last weekend versus the Suns and the big Budwa looks in serious touch. Needs 8 goals to kick 1000 and it would be great to see him do it in a final but that will be the furthest thing from the Swans' minds. They are a disciplined side and work well together. The game will be very hot in the midfield. Swans have some injuries worries with Mills and Kennedy sore, and you never play sore players in a final… watch this space. I am tipping the Swans and they will win by a reasonable margin. Swans by 25+
Head 2 Head
Swans have won two of the last three vs the Giants
Best bet
Swans win $1.65
Swans -6.5 $1.90
Melbourne Demons vs Brisbane Lions, Adelaide Oval, Aug 28th, 7.30pm
The Demons finished on top of the AFL ladder and it sets themselves up for their best chance to win a grand-final since 2000. They come up against a red hot Brisbane side who got out of jail last weekend against the Eagles and snuck in for a top four finish. The Demons had a great win against the Cats, coming from 6 goals down to win after the siren thanks, to some Max Gawn brilliance. I really like the Demons at that price and am a little surprised at it. Get on now. The Demons don’t have the home ground advantage but they have proven week in week out they can win anywhere in the comp. Oliver and Petracca are the match winners and if the forward line gels, they win by 5 goals. Daniher the key for the Lions if he has a big day, they could cause an upset.
Head 2 Head
Lions have won two of the last three games vs the Demons
Best bet
Melbourne $1.74
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers, UTS, Aug 28th 3.20pm
One side is flying, one side has limped into the finals, but all is forgotten in the regular season the serious starts now. The Dogs have had a month from hell, losing games and losing key players, they come into this game in a serious form slump but they will respond and this game looks a cracker. The Dons are up and about and have had an incredible month of footy. The side looks finals set. Peter Wright is a serious threat up forward and if you throw in Stringer and Smith, they can cause some serious headaches for the Bulldogs this weekend. The Dogs need to get a big game from Aaron Naughton this weekend or it will be tough for them to kick a score. The Dons have the midfield power to match the Dogs and it will be physical in there. I am tipping the Dons to win their first final since 2004. Dons by 15+
Head 2 Head
Dogs have won two of the last three games vs the Bombers
Best Bet
Bombers $2.40
Bombers +9.5 $1.90
