NRL Round 18 Preview
With the Origin period over, we can get back to a full round of games and with all games shifted to Queensland this round, hopefully we are in for a big week as the race toward the finals heats up.
Gold Coast Titans ($2.55) v Parramatta Eels ($1.51)
Friday 16th July, 6:00PM, Cbus Super Stadium
The Eels stumbled in their last game before the bye, going down the Panthers 13-12 but their defence was of particular note against a strong Penrith outfit even without star halfback Nathan Cleary. The Titans have named their Origin representatives on the quick back up, along with Mitch Moses for the Eels, whilst Junior Paulo will be rested. The Titans have conceded at least 30 points in six of their last ten games and the Eels have the firepower to put up a big score if they feel like it, however were impressive in their victory over the Raiders and seem to continually suck me in this season such is the talent across the park for them. History favours the Eels with the last four meetings between these sides ending in a resounding Parramatta victory and I’m going with them to kick off the weekend in good style for us.
Recommended Bet: Eels -4.5 $1.90
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles ($1.16) v St George Illawarra Dragons ($5.50)
Friday 16th July, 7:55PM, Cbus Super Stadium
Manly were brought back to Earth with a loss against the Raiders last round and will once agains be without Tom Trbojevic after Origin while the Dragons have gone through their own turmoil with their COVID-19 breaches after their 1 point victory over the Sharks and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back from the intense criticism surrounding the club. The Dragons surprisingly have one of the better defences in the competition and with Turbo out for Manly their attack lacks its penetration and hence I’m confident this game will go under the total points.
Recommended Bet: Under 49.5 $1.80
Canberra Raiders ($2.05) v Cronulla Sharks ($1.77)
Saturday 17th July, 3:00PM, Cbus Super Stadium
Despite a loss two rounds back against the struggling Broncos, the Sharks appear to have found their feet under Josh Hannay and are finding form at the right time having won five of their last six to get themselves back into the top eight. Shaun Johnson is coming into supreme form, with his control around the park last week arguably the performance of the round, while Connor Tracey continues to take leaps and bounds and is one of the form players in the competition at the moment. Last week’s surprise win over the undermanned Sea Eagles notwithstanding, the Raiders have been largely awful in recent weeks with just three wins from their last 12 games. Not to mention that when the Raiders lose, they tend to lose by a lot in recent weeks, three of their last four defeats have been by at least 24 points and I’m with the Sharks here in one of the best bets this round.
Recommended Bet: Sharks -1.5 $1.90
North Queensland Cowboys ($3.00) v Sydney Roosters ($1.38)
Saturday 17th July, 5:30PM, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Whatever momentum the Cowboys were building heading into June well and truly ran out once the calendar ticked over with four defeats, three of which were by at least 28 points. As for the Roosters, the Origin period has been rough as expected however they should start to get things back on track this weekend and they would have been very disappointed with their performance against the Bulldogs last round. Young half Sam Walker was heavily criticised by some for running out the clock, in what I felt was not only smart, but also a hilarious almost Benny Hilly like moment, particularly when the camera panned to the stoic face of Trent Robinson against a giggling Luke Keary. In saying that, I’m backing Walker to come out and put on a dominant display against a tired looking Cowboys side.
Recommended Bet: Roosters 13+ $2.10
Melbourne Storm ($1.10) v Newcastle Knights ($7.00)
Saturday 17th July, 7:35PM, AAMI Park
Both sides will be high on confidence due to their respective white washes in round 16 with the Knights 38-0 shutout of the Cowboys their most impressive win of the season, led by fullback Kalyn Ponga scoring 2 tries and laying on a further 2 for his team mates. The Storm meanwhile continue to roll on and are building one of the most dominant seasons in NRL history, winning 10 games by more than 30 points and it’s a scary thought for opposition with dynamic fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen still to return and yet still the Knights defenders will be on high alert for the departing Nicho Hynes, with 20 line break assists this year, second only to Cody Walker. While the Knights are much improved with Ponga and Pearce back in recent weeks, it is too difficult to go against the Storm in 2021.
Recommended Bet: Storm -17.5 $1.90
New Zealand Warriors v Penrith Panthers
Sunday 18th July, 1:50PM, Suncorp Stadium
In what should be a terrific afternoon of football at Suncorp Stadium, part one of a double header kicks off with the Warriors hosting the Panthers. A rough two years for the Warriors just got even tougher with the club not only losing out on its homecoming and now being forced to relocate to Queensland for the foreseeable future. Despite this and the allure of what was supposed to be a homecoming in Auckland at the back end of the year the Warriors have continued to plug away with minimal fuss. Meanwhile the Panthers found a way to grind out a 13-12 win over the Eels last week and will rely on a stout defence to get them over the line, however are very much struggling without the guidance of Nathan Cleary, who’s immense value was also seen in the Blues loss on Wednesday night. With both sides scoring on the lower end of the scale in recent weeks I’m looking to go with the unders on total points.
Recommended Bet: Under 48.5 $1.90
Brisbane Broncos ($1.62) v Wests Tigers ($2.30)
Sunday 18th July, 4:00PM, Suncorp Stadium
Brisbane has been presented with an excellent opportunity to win consecutive games for the first time since Rounds 1 & 2 of the 2020 season, which for this Broncos fan may as well have been when Lockyear and Webcke were still running around it feels that long ago. While its fair to say 2021 has not gone to plan, there is still plenty to play for at Red Hill over the next eight weeks and the Tigers are a side that Brisbane should fancy its chances against, especially as they should be able to take a multitude of positives out of their win over the Sharks last start. Defensively Wests have been nothing short of horrendous over the last few weeks and Brisbane does have the team to score if given the opportunity, but the Tigers have made a name for themselves in recent years when being counted out and it would not surprise me if they put on a performance like they did over Penrith early in the season. I’ll back the Broncos to get the job done here in a tight one, but with little confidence.
Recommended Bet: Broncos 1-12 $2.90
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.03) v Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs ($12)
Sunday 18th July, 6:15PM, Cbus Super Stadium
The Bulldogs gave the Roosters all they could handle last week, can they back it up against the red hot Rabbitohs who welcome back Latrell Mitchell? I don’t think so. The Rabbitohs attack, particularly down the left edge somehow gets better, and the race between Alex Johnston and Josh Addo-Carr will add further storyline to the upcoming rounds. A slow day at the office for Souths would be scoring in the mid-20’s but given the Bulldogs general struggles keeping good teams under 30 points, this one could be over and done with early. As I have noted in recent weeks, such is the ability of the top teams to pile on points, backing them at these wide lines would once have seemed silly, but we have profited several times throughout the year, and I’m going with that formula again to end the round.
Recommended Bet: Rabbitohs -25.5 $1.90
