AFL Round 10
Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers, Gabba, May 21st 7.50pm
Match of the round to kick off Round 10. The Tigers had a great come-from-behind performance last weekend against the Giants and you can thank Dustin Martin for that win. Bagged four and was vital in the last quarter. He will need to lead them this weekend if they are a chance of knocking off the Lions on their home deck. The Lions beat the Tigers in the first final last year and will take a lot of confidence from that performance into Friday night's game. Tom Lynch is also a big key for the Tigers and Darcy Gardiner for the Lions is out with a shoulder injury, so Lynch will be licking his lips for a bag of goals. This will be a close game but the Tigers thrive on these games and I believe the win bet and line bet are very good value. Tigers by 10
Head 2 Head
Tigers have won the last three games vs the Lions
Best bet
Tigers win $2.90
Tigers +16.5 $1.90
Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks, MCG, 22nd May 1.45pm
Big game for the Blues this weekend. They were good against the Dogs two weeks ago and were ever better against the Demons last weekend, but they keep falling short come that fourth quarter. The Hawks are in no-mans land. They say they aren’t in a rebuilding stage but after losing to the Kangaroos, I can’t see them doing anything else other than rebuilding. Omera came here for a flag but in my eyes he is so far off a flag it isn’t funny. Tom Mitchell racks up the footy but doesn’t impact games of footy. I expect the Blues to use the run out of the backline with Saad and Williams and hit up Mckay if he is fit to play. Blues by 20+. If it rains, expect Hawks to play a very defensive brand of football.
Head 2 Head
Hawks have won two of the last three games vs Blues
Best bet
Carlton 1-39 $2
Geelong Cats vs Gold Coast Suns, GMHBA, 22nd May 2.10pm
If I am Suns fan, I am planning to play golf at this time on Saturday. They Cats are going to smash them. I am expecting a cricket score to be posted. The Suns are losing troops left, right and centre. They're also going to a place where no one wins. The Cats are in serious form and their forward line looks very in sync with Cameron and Hawkins playing for each other. Hawkins is laying off goals to Cameron which you wouldn’t have seen big Tommy doing last year. I expect the Cats midfield to be too strong for the young Suns mids, with Duncan and Selwood running riot. Cats by 40+
Head 2 Head
Cats have won last three games vs the Suns
Best bet
Cats -44.5 $1.90
Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons, Adelaide Oval 22nd May 4.35pm
Great chance for the Crows to cause one of the upsets of the year against the Demons this weekend on their home deck. Taylor Walker is back and that will add some spark to the Crows. They were competitive last weekend versus the Eagles and were in the game for most of it 'til' three-quarter where their young side couldn’t match the run and carry of the Eagles. Can’t say a bad word about the Demons at the moment. Forward line killing it, midfield on fire and defence strong as a wall. If they play like they did last weekend against the Blues, they will win and move on with their quest for that flag they have been chasing for since, well, forever. The Demons will get first use out of the ruck with Max Gawn giving first use to his mids. Crows in it with the line.
Head 2 Head
Demons have won two last three games vs the Crows
Best bet
Crows win $5.20
Crows +32.5 $1.90
Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda Saints, Marvel Stadium, 22nd May 7.25pm
Interesting game here, between the Saints and the Dogs. The Saints haven’t lost to the Dogs in the last three games and that includes last year's elimination final, where they destroyed the Bulldogs. But, that is last year and this year the Dogs look like a real flag fancy. They are strong around the ground including their forward line led by Naughton and Bruce - they look unstoppable down there. The Dogs midfield will be too strong for the Saints and if Bont gets off the chain, it could be a 60+ point win for the Dogs. The Saints need to find an easier way to goal with the team horrible in front of the big sticks. Tipping a big win for the Dogs here in front of their home fans.
Head 2 Head
Saints have won the last three games vs the Dogs
Best bet
Dogs -25.5 $1.90
Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans, Optus Oval 22nd May 7.40pm
My bet of the round here. The Swans are silly money at $1.95. They are a top four side coming up against a Fremantle side who are battling to stay out of the bottom four. The Swans have Lance Franklin up forward and it is his first game back in his home state since round 1 2018, when he kicked eight against the Eagles in a dominate performance. The Swans will look for him up forward and if he kicks a bag, this game will be put to bed early. You could say the Dockers were unlucky last weekend against the Bombers but in my eyes, they are a real nothing side at the moment and really need to pull something out of the hat to beat the Swans. Papley is another gun player and if he gets off the chain, he can pop up and kick a bag which will also mean lights out for the Dockers. Fyfe is the only player that can really help Fremantle win this game.
Head 2 Head
Freo have won two of the last three games vs the Swans
Best bet
Swans win $1.95
GWS Giants vs West Coast Eagles, Giants Stadium, 23rd May 1.10pm
Big game Sunday afternoon between these two sides. The Eagles are flying high from a big win last weekend against the Crows and will look to get another win away to shut up the media from the east. The Eagles tall timber should be too strong for this young Giants side. Darling and Allen are in great form and if they kick a bag, it will be lights out early for GWS. Huge out for the Giants with Toby Greene to miss four weeks with a shoulder injury. Giants really lose their way when he doesn’t play. I am tipping an Eagles win as they will be too strong in the middle and the Giants' ground really suits the Eagles as it is a lot like Optus Stadium. Eagles firing out of the middle with Nic Nat and Kelly. Eagles by 10+
Head 2 Head
Eagles have won the last three games vs the Giants
Best bet
Eagles win $1.70
Collingwood Magpies vs Port Adelaide, MCG, 23rd May 3.20pm
Danger game here for the Pies on Sunday afternoon in front of their passionate fans. Nathan Buckley is looking down the barrel of another defeat and if it is by a big score, the pressure will mount in him being coach of this side. They were good last weekend versus the Swans but had no options when going forward. A lot falls on De Goey and if he doesn’t kick a bag, they barely look like kicking a score. He kicked two last weekend and they were in with a sniff but the Swans shut him down and they looked toothless. The Power will know this and will try shut him down early. Port need to win this after losing to the Bulldogs last weekend in a game they should have won in front of their home fans. They are playing poorly against the top four sides but should get the win this weekend and press on for a top four finish. Power by 20+
Head 2 Head
Pies have won two the last three games vs the Power
Best bet
Pies +18.5 $1.90
Pies win $3.20
Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos, Marvel Stadium, May 23rd 4.40pm
Back in the day this game would have packed out the MCG but now it will struggle to get 20k on a Sunday afternoon under the roof. The Kangaroos are riding high after getting the big W last weekend versus the Hawks in Tassie. It is always good to get a win away from home and especially your first in over 15 games of football. They beat the Hawks with their skills and dash out of the back line. Aaron Hall was very impressive and the Kangaroos need to get the football in his hands as he is elite by foot. The Bombers got out of jail last weekend against the Dockers and will need to produce that form to beat the Kangaroos. Merrett and Heppell out of the midfield down the throat of Stringer will be a site to watch. Game will be a lot closer then people think. Take the Kangaroos line.
Head 2 Head
Bombers have won the last three games vs the Kangaroos
Best bet
North +21.5 $1.90
