ROSEHILL GUINEAS PREVIEW
GROUP 1
3YO
2000M
HEAVY 8
RAIL +3M ENTIRE
OVERVIEW
Derby hopefuls will put their credentials on the line on Saturday with the running of the Rosehill Guineas for three-year-olds over 2000m. A decent line-up of progressive staying types are set to line up with Montefilia the lone filly amongst the other fourteen colts and geldings. The Annabel Neasham trained Mo’unga has been found by early price assessors and currently sits atop the market at $2.70 with BlueBet. At the time of writing the track was rated a HEAVY 8 and on the improve after the big wet in Sydney last week. The rail goes out 3 metres for the entire circuit. Expecting jockeys to get off the rail and use a fair bit of this track.
SPEED
Speed looks more genuine now with GRANDSLAM accepting. Expect him to find the top and set a good gallop with HERE TO SHOCK and KOBESTAR both expected to push into forward positions with WHEELHOUSE not far away. THE CULLINAN next in company with LUNAR FOX, MONTEFILIA and the NZ horse MILFORD. They'll have to make a decision with LIONS ROAR on whether they push the button or perhaps ride cold like they did to effect in the Randwick Guineas. THE ELANORA just worse than midfield with MO’UNGA. BUCHAREST and the Melbourne visitor KHOEKHOE the expected back markers alongside EXPLOSIVE JACK and SKY LAB.
KEY RUNNERS
- MO’UNGA ($2.70) Tommy Berry/Annabel Neasham (6)
Was really a tragedy beaten in the Randwick Guineas, strung up for runs along the fence basically the entirety of the straight only to get out with a furlong to go. When he did, he absolutely savaged the line, his last 200m split of 11.36 over a length quicker than anything else in the race. The blinkers were applied there for the first time so they may just be the making of this horse after showing real early promise. Gets onto a wet track which he has only seen once in his career on debut but on type he should be well suited to the sting out. The only real knock is the price. Looks unders at the current quote due to the flashing light run last start so happy to bet around at the early price.
- SKY LAB ($11) Damian Lane/Paul Perry (15)
This is the horse I want to make a strong case for. Looks a natural staying type who collected his first two runs this preparation over unsuitable trips before racing without luck last start in a BM88 (2000m) against the older horses. The market was in love with him late there and I love the set-up, giving him the runs against the older horses to really season him and toughen him up before advancing back to his own age. He’s also the only horse coming here with a 2000m lead-up which I think will hold him in good stead especially on the testing track. Has won on Heavy before so I don’t see that as an issue and he will be strong late. The further they go the better. He’ll likely spot them a start, but like I said I think he has the grounding to be able to get over the top of this lot and we also get the services of James McDonald. Overs at $11.
- MONTEFILIA ($5) Jason Collett/David Payne (10)
Sole filly of the field who looks to have a great chance stepping straight to 2000m after a solid return against her own sex in the Surround (1400m). Obviously a trip short of her best, she hit the line hard recording the 2nd fastest last 200m of the race signaling that she really is looking for that extra ground. Knocked over Lions Roar in the Spring Champion Stakes at the back end of last year SP’ing $2.70 versus his $18 which is interesting to note. Has a strong record on rain affected going so she looks suited in that sense. Just whether or not she’s going to be a run short stepping sharply in trip 2nd up will be the question mark with her, especially now that she is 4 weeks between runs, but her class will also take her a long way.
STRATEGY
SKY LAB
Happy to back Sky Lab each way here. Think he is a progressive stayer who has been well set-up to run well having had the 2000m lead-up against the older horses. Shouldn’t be deterred by any cut in the ground and we get J Mac. He’ll do me.
GOOD LUCK PUNTERS!
