Horse Racing Bets – All Star Mile Moonee Valley – Matt Shean’s Racing Preview 2021

ALL-STAR MILE PREVIEW

WFA

1600M

RAIL - TRUE

TRACK - GOOD 4

OVERVIEW
The All-Star Mile heads to Moonee Valley for the first time this Saturday in what will be the third running of Melbourne’s newly introduced Autumn feature. The 2021 edition could possibly be the strongest yet, with a crack line-up of fifteen gallopers, nine of which are already Group 1 winners, set to do battle over the mile (1600m). The WA juggernaut that is Bob Peters, along with the team of Grant & Alana Williams, will be aiming to go back-to-back in the race having claimed the 2020 edition with Regal Power. They saddle up the early favourite in this year’s race in Arcadia Queen, who currently sits atop the market at $3.40 with BlueBet. With the rail in the true, horses on speed are generally advantaged however with the prospect of rain, we could see that alleviated. At the time of writing, 8-20mm was forecast for race day so expect to be playing on a rain affected track.

SPEED

Speed in the race looks genuine with a few noted on-pace runners likely to set a good gallop. STREETS OF AVALON and GREYSFUL GLAMOUR look the likely pair to take it up crossing across from wide draws to join SHOUT THE BAR who will be prominent. BEHEMOTH can position up from the inside alley, as can RUSSIAN CAMELOT and THE HARROVIAN. ARCADIA QUEEN next midfield with REGALO DI GAETANO and LUNAR FOX who may be able to settle a little closer. PROBABEEL just off them with MUGATOO, STILL A STAR and STAR OF THE SEAS. SIR DRAGONET’S been ridden prominently at the trials but probably heads back here? MR QUICKIE the big loser at the barrier draw and will also likely look to settle at the rear at the field.

KEY RUNNERS

RUSSIAN CAMELOT ($6.00) Damien Oliver/Danny O’Brien

He looks a big price here Russian Camelot and I want to be on him. Attacks this race 1^st up for Danny O’Brien after a strong Spring campaign, that saw him claim his 2^nd Group 1 and run very commendable races in both the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup. On resumption last prep over 1600m he ran a huge race when deep the entire only to be pipped late by Fierce Impact. The market was in love with him that day, as they were 2^nd up when he made a mess of his rivals (including Arcadia Queen) in the Underwood (1800m). He SP’ed $1.55 that day vs AQ $5.50. On that alone the gap between them looks too big here. Started a hard favourite in the Cox Plate next where his run was outstanding sitting on pace in a brutally run race, again beating home key rivals AQ, Probabeel and Mugatoo. The word out of the camp is that this horse has improved again, and I’ve loved the way he’s worked in readiness for this long-range target. The Flemington jump out, the Werribee trial, and work at Moonee Valley this week have all been top class and he looks revved up to run a big race. I think they have to use the draw to settle midfield at worst, and the prospect of rain only increases his chances. He loves any sting out of the ground. Add that with the fact that we get Damien Oliver, he looks a sensational bet at $8.

ARCADIA QUEEN ($3.90) William Pike/Grant & Alana Williams

Markets telling you that Arcadia Queen is a fantastic chance in this race, and it is hard to argue. The three-time Group 1 winner was very good resuming in the Futurity (1400m) behind Probabeel where she went back from the wide draw, covered ground, and hit the line hard recording race best closing sectionals. Tuned up with a strong gallop at Bendigo since and should be ready to go 2^nd up. The market will love her set up, especially with the draw she’s been afforded. Personally, I want to take her on. I think she is better suited at 2000m and on softer tempos, when she gets the ability to showcase her big turn of foot. Looking at her form since coming from WA, she has only won one race at 1600m or below, and that was in a fairly weak Theo Marks at Rosehill when she was being trained for an Everest. The key negative also is the ground. She loves bone dry tracks, so with the arrival of any rain, expect the market to react and for her to drift. Not sure that she was completely at home either at Moonee Valley the only time she saw it in the Cox Plate. No doubting her credentials, and she is proven at WFA, but considering these factors, she’s too short for mine and happy to bet around her at this early stage.

PROBABEEL ($4.20) Damian Lane/Jamie Richards

Absolutely flying is this Kiwi mare who has returned better than ever with two very strong wins in both the Bellmaine (1200m) and the Futurity (1400m). Both rated highly overall, and she looks the other main chance in Saturday’s All-Star Mile. The ticks are endless. Her record at 1600m is great, having claimed the Epsom Handicap in the Spring. She is better suited on good tracks but she handles wet tracks fine so I wouldn’t treat that as a negative. Has SP profile over Arcadia Queen from last start ($3.50 v $4.60) so that’s a tick in her favour and I think she actually was holding AQ through the line at Caulfield. Comes up with a slightly tricky draw, but she is versatile so with the services of a flying Damian Lane, you’d expect her to be able to find a spot and be afforded every opportunity. Have marked her favourite just longer than the current price. Huge chance.

STRATEGY

RUSSIAN CAMELOT

Bet in the race for mine is Russian Camelot. Word out of the camp is strong and I think he’ll be ready 1^st up. The market has long told us that this is a good horse with his SP profile so at $8 I think he has to firm. Has drawn well to sit close to the speed and the expected forecast of showers only enhances his chances. Probabeel his biggest threat in career best form. Honourable mention to Mugatoo who I think will relish a fast run mile. Against Arcadia Queen at the price.

GOOD LUCK PUNTERS!