RANDWICK GUINEAS PREVIEW
GROUP 1
1600M
RAIL +3M ENTIRE
GOOD 4
OVERVIEW
The Sydney Autumn Carnival has begun and on Saturday the Group 1 Randwick Guineas will headline
a fantastic card of racing from Royal Randwick. The three-year-old’s are set to do battle over the
famous Randwick mile and it’s the boom Kiwi gelding Aegon who they’ll all be chasing, having kept
his unbeaten record intact with a booming win in his Australian debut. The forecast is looking good
so expect them to be racing on a good track and with the rail at +3M, running line and middle lanes
in the straight look advantageous.
SPEED
Predicting above average tempo here with the likes of MARSANNAY and PELTZER, who has drawn
wide, working forward to find prominent positions. HARMONY ROSE, the sole filly in the race should
follow Peltzer across with the likes of HERE TO SHOCK, BUCHAREST and WHEELHOUSE searching for
spots. NORTH PACIFIC will be right there and should get run of the race. LIONS ROAR midfield or just
worse in company with race fancies MO’UNGA and AEGON. PRIME STAR may be forced to go back
from the gate or they may go forward and hope for luck. KINGS LEGACY and THE ELANORA look to
see them all.
KEY RUNNERS
7. MO’UNGA ($6.50) (Tommy Berry/Annabel Neasham)
I’m in the corner of Mo’unga here at the price. Showed he was a horse of considerable talent in the
Spring claiming the Dulcify before lining up in the Caulfield Guineas where he SP $7. Failed there but
I think it just came a little bit too soon for him. Showed first up in the CS Hayes at Flemington that
he’d returned well when sitting much closer to the speed and grinding hard to the line to finish third
to Tagaloa in a really fast run race (14 lengths above Benchmark overall). That’s a nice platform
heading to the mile now and I love the set up with the three weeks between runs. Gets the blinkers
on for the first time which is a positive gear change and from the low draw, the fact that he showed
some tactical speed first up may allow T Berry to be a little closer in the run. Aegon is hard to topple
but at the early prices I was happy to side with this bloke on an each-way basis.
1. AEGON ($2.20) (Hugh Bowman/Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman)
There was talk that our three-year-old crop was fairly weak and this horse Aegon may have
confirmed that with his win on debut in Australian in the Hobartville (1400m) when he gave North
Pacific and co a hiding. Now unbeaten in 5 starts, he puts that record on the line again on Saturday
and he again looks hard to topple. The step to the mile is a positive for sure having won previously
over the trip in NZ. Some will say that going from a rain affected track to a dry track may pull him up
but the majority of his runs in NZ were also on good tracks so I think he handles all surfaces.
Dissecting his win in the Hobartville, it was a very slowly run race. Of three 1400m races run on that
day the Hobartville was the slowest overall time. Is it all hollow form? I would lean to saying no, as
Aegon’s closing splits were very strong and he did certainly look to have something in hand when
crossing the line. He did come up the best part of the track but I’d be hard pressed to back anything
behind him that day to turn the tables. Will get back but it’s a good draw for him to be able to find
clear air in the straight and to work through his gears. Hard to beat but short enough.
3. NORTH PACIFIC ($7.50) (James McDonald/Team Hawkes)
The only other chance in the race for mine looks to be North Pacific if he could recapture some of his
form from the Spring. He has looked much more dour this preparation so the step to the mile might
be what he is looking for now. Hard to see him turning the tables on Aegon from the Hobartville but
he did SP shorter on that occasion and perhaps wasn’t in the best part of the track in the straight.
Should be afforded every opportunity here from the gate but I’d need $10+ to back him.
STRATEGY
Cheering Mo’unga in the Randwick Guineas and hoping that Annabel Neasham might be able to land
her first Group 1 winner. As mentioned, I like the set up for this horse with the three weeks between
runs after a strong showing in the CS Hayes. His improved tactical speed was a huge positive on that
occasion which may allow him to be closer to the speed on Saturday. We get Blinkers first time and
with a genuine speed expected, he should get his chance to finish over the top.
GOOD LUCK PUNTERS!
