Horse Racing Bets – G1 Victoria Derby 2020 – Runner By Runner Preview | BlueBet

2020 VICTORIA DERBY RUNNER BY RUNNER PREVIEW

FLEMINGTON RACE 7 – 15:45 AEDT

3 OPEN G1
Aami Victoria Derby
15:45 | 2500m | AUD $2,000,000

OVERVIEW

The three year-olds take centre stage on Saturday with the running of the time honoured Victoria Derby set to kick off a huge Melbourne Cup Carnival. A field of 14 stayers have assembled this year all vying for classic glory over the grueling 2500m test at Flemington. For the first time in a long time, the field is made up purely of Melbourne trained horses. While perhaps not a vintage year, this year’s race still holds an immense amount of intrigue and certainly provides some wagering angles. The rail is in the true position and with a clear forecast, expect to be racing on a good track.

SPEED MAP

Speed looks below average in this year’s Derby, with Let’s Karaka Deal likely to take up the running from the low draw having led last start in the Caulfield Classic. Born To Succeed, Cetshwayo and potentially Kenzan all push into prominent positions. Pre-post favourite Young Werther has drawn well and should get a cozy run in transit midfield. Wertheimer and Token Spirit midfield from Albarado and Wisaka. Tour Of Duty and Hit The Shot just worse than midfield. Redwood Shadow, Johnny Get Angry and Cherry Tortoni draw wide and look to drift back in the early stages.

1 .CHERRY TORTONI ($4.20) Billy Egan/Patrick Payne

The Patrick Payne trained galloper makes his way into the Derby field on the quick back-up having claimed the Moonee Valley Vase (2040m) last week on Cox Plate day. Showed he could run out a strong 2000m there after some doubts were cast on him at the trip when he failed in a fast run Spring Champion in Sydney prior. Interesting to note that Young Werther was accepted to run last week in the Vase before being scratched on race day due to the deteriorating track. Before being withdrawn Young Werther was $2.00 vs Cherry Tortoni $4.50, yet now suddenly they are almost the same price? If this is a truly run Derby, I think this horse will be found out as he’s shown that he performs much better on a sit sprint tempo. I’ve also still got a little niggle on him seeing out the 2500m. He didn’t exactly savage the line last start at the end of 2000m even though he had to make a long sustained run. Think he may be too brilliant and better suited as a miler/2000 horse, which his figures back up. Add in the fact that he will likely have to go all the way back from the wide gate, and he looks set a task here to round them all up. Happy to risk.

2. ALBARADO ($7.50) Mark Zahra/Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young

The Busuttin and Young trained son of Savabeel lines up in the Derby having claimed the traditional lead-up, the Caulfield Classic/Norman Robinson Stakes (the race Warning came out of to win last year’s Derby). Beat a number of key rivals there that he meets again on Saturday in what was a tight driving finish and a perfectly timed ride by Mark Zahra. In what was a slowly run race (4.5 lengths below benchmark to the 600), this bloke made a long sustained run around the field and showed good fighting qualities to stick his head out right on the wire. Prior to that he ran a very good third in the Super Impose (1800m) when beaten by Khoekhoe and Young Werther, so he’s easy to tie in. That said, relative SP’s do make it hard to come into him at the current price and he just might simply be outclassed by a few here. Runs well and definitely has the ability to fill a hole but looking elsewhere.

3. JOHNNY GET ANGRY ($23) Lachlan King/Denis Pagan

What a story it would be if Johnny Get Angry could salute in the Derby for former AFL coach turned trainer Denis Pagan. The colt by Tavistock, who is still a maiden, has appreciated getting out to a trip in his last two running a grinding fourth in the Super Impose (SP $41) before running third in last week’s Vase (SP $13), albeit beaten 7 lengths by Cherry Tortoni. Gets blinkers on here and looks like he’ll stay all day, just whether or not he’ll be able to do it quicker than the others, you’d have to say unlikely.

4. LET’S KARAKA DEEL ($10) John Allen/Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Still in his first prep, Let’s Karaka Deal was the runner many punters wanted to take out of the Derby trial (1800m) last month at Flemington when he basically barrier trialed in going to the line untested. SP’ed $5 there shorter than the likes of Hit The Shot, Cetshwayo, Tour Of Duty and Werthheimer. Punters were keen to go again in the Caulfield Classic where he was sent out the $4.40 favourite, and after sitting on speed at a slow tempo was only just collared late by Albarado. Not sure what to make of that run. He looked gone at the top of the straight and seemed to float until horses went past him, only to come again on the line. Perhaps might be ridden better with a sit but that doesn’t look like the set-up he’ll get here. That said, you can’t doubt the camp who are just freak grand final trainers. Top 4 chance.

5. YOUNG WERTHER ($4.00) Damien Oliver/Danny O’Brien

What a training performance it would be from Danny O’Brien to have Young Werther win the Derby at just his third start of his first racing preparation. Controversial decision to scratch from last week’s Vase to avoid the heavy track and go in 4 weeks between runs, jumping 1800-2500m. As we touched on earlier he was heavily backed there, with most expecting him to just win. If he had what price does he turn up here? $2.50? Shorter? His two runs to date have been ultra-impressive, winning on debut at Geelong over 1500m where he was going away from them (ran 5^th Q L200 of the meeting) and then had no luck in the Super Impose when he found dead-ends all the way up the straight (1800m). The money for him that day was also huge, crunched from $3.30-$2.60 in the final 5 minutes of betting which showcases that the big teams were in his corner. Attacked the line when out (11.64 last 200 Q of race) and that was off a fast tempo so he added that string to his bow as well. Simply put, he could just be better than them and has the potential to rate right up on what he’s done so far. In a Derby that looks somewhat below average, he may be able to overcome the factors against him. Maps great from the low draw to just switch off midfield in the run, winkers go on, and gets the services of Damien Oliver. Has a bit of a feel of when we look back at this race we may ask how did they bet that price. $4 certainly looks acceptable to find out. Tipping starts shorter. On top.

6.HIT THE SHOT ($7.00) Fred Kersley/ Matt Cumani

Matt Cumani is looking to land his maiden Group 1 with Hit The Shot in Saturday’s Derby and for mine he looks to have a great chance, presenting as the main danger to Young Werther. Warmed up late in the Derby trial to finish 4^th behind Cetshwayo without a whole lot of galloping room. Then was super the other day in the Classic when he got back on a slow tempo (4.5 lengths slow to 600), hit a flat spot on the bend but really picked up the last furlong to record a strong last sectional of 12.36 (race best). Was clearly the best closer of the race in a race that didn’t suit. Apart from Young Werther, he looks the one that will really appreciate getting out to 2500m and if there are any chinks in the favourite’s armor, he may be the one to pounce.

7. CETSHWAYO ($16) Jamie Kah/Danny O’Brien

The second of Danny O’Brien’s three runners, Cetshwayo is not without claims here after winning the Derby trial then started on the third line of betting at $6.00 in the Caulfield Classis. Not overly suited there, raced wide for a section and then got shuffled back in the run. When balanced I thought his work through the line wasn’t too bad and recorded the 2^nd quickest last 200m sectional of the race, even despite the fact that I thought that Jamie Kah was kind to him through the line. The draw is slightly tricky, with such a short run to the first bend Kah will need to be good to try and slot in and find a spot early. Can improve on last start and although I think he lacks the class of a few others, can finish top 6 for sure.

8. REDWOOD SHADOW ($16) Jye McNeil/Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr

Strong run last start in the Caulfield Classic when kept safe by the market at $10. As we’ve touched on, was a slowly run race so those settling off pace were disadvantaged by the race shape. Redwood Shadow was another who had to make a long sustained run, clocking the fastest 8-6, 6-4, and 4-2 sectionals of the race before slightly peaking on the run late so he did well to finish so close. Figures are a fair way behind what is needed to win this race, however like so many being so lightly raced there’s nothing to say that he can’t make that progression. Untested on a fast tempo so he’s a question mark at a strong 2500, and may also be better off with a little bit of sting out of the ground. Nevertheless, he’s another that runs well and is a must for exotic players.

9. WERTHEIMER ($34) Hugh Bowman/Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young

Started $9 in the Derby trial before heading north to Sydney to run in the Spring Champion where he was given little hope Sp’ing $26. That Spring Champion was a brutally run affair (race run 8 lengths fast for the class to the 600m) and Wertheimer simply didn’t handle it. Sat back off the speed and attempted to loop them but gave in fairly weakly it must be said eventually getting beaten 15 lengths. Not the run of a coming Derby winner I would have thought.

10. TOUR OF DUTY ($29) James McDonald/Mike Moroney

Five start maiden who has been consistent in recent runs, running 2^nd in the Derby trial and then beaten less than a length last time out in the Caulfield Classic. Started $31 and $17 in both of those so hard to really make a case for him and he did look to have every possible last start despite not being beaten far. Don’t think he’ll feature.

11. TOKEN SPIRIT ($67) Damian Lane/Robbie Griffiths

Brings a different form line having come through the Geelong Classic over the 2200m. Settled just worse than midfield and battled into 4^th but never really looked like challenging the winner. Not sure that that is the right form line for a Derby and looks tested here.

12. BORN TO SUCCEED ($81) Michael Walker/Saab Hasan

SP’ed $201 against the likes of Young Werther when finishing right down the track in the Super Impose. Won a maiden at Wodonga over 2050 since but making up the numbers here.

13. WISAKA ($61) Ben Melham/Mike Moroney

Very dour stayer who also comes out of the Geelong Classic over the 2200m, finishing 5^th behind Confrontational. Started $21 there so hard to make a case. Outclassed.

14. KENZAN ($67) Daniel Moor/Danny O’Brien

Four start maiden for Danny O’Brien who finished 7^th in the Geelong Classic. Slightly held up for a run there but got to the line just fairly all the same. Not in the equation.

PICKS

1. YOUNG WERTHER

2. HIT THE SHOT

3. CETSHWAYO

4. LET’S KARAKA DEEL

Has to defy history here but gee Young Werther looks awfully hard to beat amongst a bunch of stayers who look to have found there level. Will trust the combination of Danny O’Brien and Damien Oliver to have this bloke right, and from the perfect gate, expecting him to get a lovely run in transit and simply be too good for his rivals. Think the $4 is more than acceptable. Suggest the market gravitates towards him. Hit The Shot the biggest danger coming out the Caulfield Classic. Bunched finish means that there probably isn’t much between them but he hit the line hard in a race which wasn’t run to suit. Saving. Cetshwayo and Let’s Karaka Deel both honest and can run decent races to fill minors.

Backing Young Werther, Save Hit The Shot

Words: Matt Shean

Good Luck Punters!