NRL Round 17 Preview
With only one month left of the regular season the race for a spot in the top four is heating up and could potentially be decided after this round with three huge matches between sides in the top 8. Read on as we cast our eye round over what looks a more enticing round with a number of tighter matches.
Brisbane Broncos ($9.50) vs Penrith Panthers ($1.06)
Thursday, 3rd September 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium
Round 17 kicks off with a clash between the ladder leaders the Penrith Panthers and the 15th placed Brisbane Broncos at Suncorp Stadium. Both sides come into the contest in strikingly different form as the Panthers remain on top of the ladder thanks to an 11 game winning streak whilst the Broncos remain dangerously close to the wooden spoon after just one win in their last 14 matches. For the Panthers their streak continued last week with a 30-6 demolition of the Wests Tigers despite missing two of their key players in Apisai Koroisau and Viliame Kikau. Both of these players are back in the squad this week and they will be hoping that they can help them earn their first win against the Broncos since 2016, as they currently sit on a four game losing streak to them. Unfortunately for Broncos fans the side who earned this streak is much different to the younger side that they have today and this was evident in their 58-12 loss to the Roosters last week. Thankfully for the Broncos they will be given some hope in the form of Payne Haas, Corey Oates and Isaac Luke, who all return to the side for this week’s clash. As a result Corey Paix is shifted to the bench and Jordan Kahu, Brodie Croft & Joe Ofahengaue all drop out of the side. For the Panthers Kikau is back in the starting 17 as Isaah Yeo is out with a head knock, which forces James Fisher-Harris to lock & Moses Leota to the front row whilst Kurt Capewell returns from injury on the bench in place of Billy Burns. Despite Brisbane’s dominant record against the Panthers it’s hard to find much value in any area for them this week. To make matters worse for the Broncos the Panthers have some key attacking players back and have looked dominant in recent weeks by covering the line in their last two victories as well as having won 3 of their last 5 by more than this week's line. As a result we’re confident in taking Panthers with the line this week against the competition's worst defence in the Broncos as they struggle to show us any reason to back them with confidence.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers -22.5 $2.00
Newcastle Knights ($1.83) vs Cronulla Sharks ($1.98)
Friday, 4th September 6:00pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
The first of two huge top 8 clashes on Friday sees the Newcastle Knights take on the Cronulla Sharks at McDonald Jones Stadium in what should be a cracking contest. With both sides currently sitting 7th and 8th on the ladder they will be desperate for a win to keep their hopes of a home final in week one alive as well as keeping their four point gap that they have on the 9th placed Warriors. This becomes even more interesting when you consider the fact that the Warriors demolished the Knights 36-6 last week as the Knights were completely outmuscled in the forwards, running for over 800m less than the Warriors, making 11 errors and missing 30 tackles in an embarrassing loss. The Knights will be desperate to bounce back from this loss as they look to add to their victory against the Sharks from their last meeting in 2019. For the Sharks they overcame an early scare from the Cowboys to run away with a 28-12 victory that was largely on the back of a dominant first half where they controlled possession & field position as well as another strong performance from their forwards. This week sees both sides make a couple of changes. For the Knights their changes come on the bench as Phoenix Crossland & Brodie Jones come into the side for Chris Randall and Pasami Saulo. For the Sharks they welcome back star halfback Chad Townsend from injury as Connor Tracey reverts to the bench and Andrew Fifita drops out of the 17. In recent history the Sharks have the slight edge in winning four of the last five encounters, although they lost their most recent meeting. Where there does appear to be a bit of value is in the total points market for this week. In three of their last four encounters the total score has been 44 points or more and with both sides averaging over 20 points per game in 2020 then we are leaning towards another high scoring match between the two sides.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 42.5 $1.90
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($2.40) vs Melbourne Storm ($1.58)
Friday, 4th September 7:55pm, ANZ Stadium
The second top 8 clash of the evening sees the red hot South Sydney Rabbitohs take on the Melbourne Storm at ANZ Stadium. The Rabbitohs will be brimming with confidence after completely picking apart an Eels side that kept the Storm scoreless just the previous week. In this 38-0 victory the Rabbitohs played with confidence as they moved the ball around from all positions of the field and exposed a number of holes in the Eels left edge defence. On the other hand the Storm bounced back from their 14-0 loss to the Eels with a convincing 30-6 victory over the Sea Eagles that was spearheaded by a two try performance from Josh Addo-Carr and the return of three key playmakers in Cameron Smith, Cameron Munster & Jahrome Hughes. This week sees the Storm forced into a couple more changes as a result of injuries. Marion Seve & Nelson Asofa-Solomona both miss out with injury meaning that Brenko Lee comes into the centres whilst Chris Lewis comes into the back row, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui starts at lock and Ryley Jacks joins the bench. Similarly the Rabbitohs will lose Latrell Mitchell to a season ending hamstring injury as he is replaced by Alex Johnston at fullback and Dane Gagai returns from injury in the centres in place of Steven Marsters. In recent history the Storm have dominated this fixture in winning nine of their last ten meetings, including a 22-8 victory in round four of this season. This encounter was marred by a huge 31 errors between the sides and both coaches will be hoping for much better ball control. When looking at the market there appears to be a clear favouritism towards the Storm, largely due to their impressive record against the Rabbitohs but we believe the market may be being a little generous towards the Storm. A large portion of their record has come from victories in Melbourne (six of their wins) and with the Storm coming off a five day turnaround as well as missing a few key starting forwards then we are thinking the market should be a little closer than what it is. As a result we’re going to take Souths with the line, in hope that they continue their good form of covering their last two lines.
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs +4.5 $1.80
Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.00) vs Gold Coast Titans ($1.82)
Saturday, 5th September 3:00pm, ANZ Stadium
Two sides with plenty to play for clash in Saturday’s first game as the Canterbury Bulldogs take on the Gold Coast Titans at ANZ Stadium. For the Titans they will be looking to notch back to back wins for the first time in 2020 after a confidence building come from behind win against the Dragons last week. In this 14-10 victory they trailed 10-4 with just seven minutes to go but managed to run in two late tries as they overcame a huge possession deficit and numerous Dragons attacks in a hard earned victory. For the Bulldogs this match could potentially be their last chance to leapfrog the 15th placed Brisbane Broncos and away from the dreaded wooden spoon as they face a couple of top 8 teams in their run home. If the Bulldogs can play anything like their opening 40 minutes from the last two weeks, where they have led against both the Warriors & the Raiders, then they look every chance of earning this victory. This week will see the Bulldogs welcome back some big players too as Luke Thompson & Jake Averillo come onto the bench for Sione Katoa & Dean Britt. For the Titans they welcome back one of their strongest forwards all year in Moeiaki Fotuaika who takes Jai Whitbread's bench spot whilst Jai Arrow is named on the extended bench as he looks to return from a shoulder injury. In recent history the Bulldogs have been the better team in winning four of their last five encounters, with their most recent meeting ending in a 22-16 victory in 2019. Despite this the Titans have been installed as minor favourites but with not much value between the two sides again we will look towards the total points market. In the last three weeks the six games that these sides have played in have resulted in the overs triumphing in four of them and with this in mind we will happily look at the overs in this fixture.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 42.5 $1.90
Manly Sea Eagles ($1.55) vs Wests Tigers ($2.45)
Saturday, 5th September 5:30pm, Lottoland
Two teams who many tipped to feature in the finals this year in the Manly Sea Eagles & the Wests Tigers come together at Lottoland in Saturday’s second game. Unfortunately for both sides this expectation of playing finals seems a distant dream now with both sides languishing out of the eight thanks to both injuries and bad form. For the Tigers their season has derailed as they have won just three from their last ten matches and currently sit on a two game losing streak. In these two games they have conceded 68 points to the Roosters & the Panthers whilst only scoring 22 as their slimsy defence was exposed and their lack of control in the halves was highlighted. For the Sea Eagles they have fallen from looking like a top four threat to 12th position after just two wins in their last ten matches, including a current 5 game losing streak. Throughout this streak the Sea Eagles have conceded 180 points, an average of 36 points per game, whilst scoring only 80 points, at an average of 16 points per game. This fall has brought huge concerns for Sea Eagles fans and with injuries to Joel Thompson and Reuben Garrick their season is going from bad to worse. As a result of these injuries Abbas Miski is called up onto the wing and Jack Gosiewski starts in the back row with Corey Waddell joining the interchange. For the Tigers Adam Douehi has been moved from fullback to centre as Moses Mbye takes his fullback spot whilst the error prone Tommy Talau is dropped for AJ Kepaoa and Josh Aloiai returns at prop with Matt Eisenhuth dropping to the bench and Shawn Blore out of the side. Despite the Sea Eagles winning their most recent encounter from last year the Tigers have been the dominant force in winning their previous four matches. Surprisingly, the Sea Eagles have been installed as favourites for this one but with their mammoth injury toll only getting worse and their defensive frailties that were highlighted earlier then we are happy to take them on by going with the Tigers line in this one.
Recommended Bet: Wests Tigers +4.5 $1.80
Canberra Raiders ($2.70) vs Sydney Roosters ($1.47)
Saturday, 5th September 7:35pm, GIO Stadium
Arguably the game of the round sees a replay of the 2019 grand final as the Canberra Raiders take on the Sydney Roosters at their home ground GIO Stadium. Both sides come into the game in formidable form and with the two sides sitting level on points, with only points differential separating them, this shapes as the match to decide who makes the top four. The Roosters come in off a two game winning streak as they have dismantled both the Tigers & the Broncos thanks to a free flowing attacking style that wielded them 96 points whilst only conceding 28 points. On the other hand the Raiders are on a three game winning streak thanks to 106 points scored in attack whilst only 44 points conceded in defence in wins against the Broncos, Titans & Bulldogs. This week is a much bigger step up for both sides in terms of opposition and the Raiders will be confident after their 24-20 victory against the Roosters from round 10 this year, where they came from 20-12 down to win. Unfortunately for the Raiders the Roosters welcome back two massive names into their 17 in the form of five eight Luke Keary & forward Sonny Bill Williams. As a result Drew Hutchison & Poasa Faamausili drop to the reserves with Nat Butcher swapping from starting back row to interchange with Boyd Cordner. For the Raiders Corey Harawira-Nawa returns to the bench in place of Matt Timoko whilst Josh Papalii and Siliva Havili return to the starting side with Dunamis Lui and Tom Starling reverting to the bench. With the Roosters nearing a return to full strength this game looks set to be played in a finals-like atmosphere and we are liking the Roosters after what was a shaky performance from the Raiders against the last placed team last week. Add to the fact that you don’t see the Roosters lose two games in a row to the same side very often then we are confident they can prevail in what should be a close encounter. For a little bit extra value their last six encounters have been decided by eight points or less and with that in mind we will take the Roosters by 1-12.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 1-12 $2.80
New Zealand Warriors ($3.05) vs Parramatta Eels ($1.38)
Sunday, 6th September 4:05pm, Central Coast Stadium
Sunday’s first game is a huge fixture in terms of both teams' respective top 8 and top 4 aspirations as the New Zealand Warriors take on the Parramatta Eels at Central Coast Stadium. As it stands the Warriors look like the only team with a chance of sneaking into the top 8 as they have won four of their last five matches including a hugely impressive victory against the 7th placed Knights side. In this victory the Warriors put together a controlled performance as they completed at 89% and ran for 800m more than the Knights in a 36-6 thumping of them. On the other hand the Eels put in their worst performance of the year as they failed to fire a shot in a 38-0 loss to the Rabbitohs last Thursday night. This loss was summed up by a 70% completion rate and 41 missed tackles as the Rabbitohs completely exposed their shaky right edge defence. To make matters worse for the Eels is the fact that they have lost five-eight Dylan Brown to an ankle injury for potentially the season as Jai Field is brought in to replace him. Thankfully they can welcome back forward Marata Niukore from suspension as he takes the place of Andrew Davey on the bench. For the Warriors they will lose two Eels loan players in George Jennings & Daniel Alvaro as well as Eliesa Katoa as Gerard Beale comes onto the wing, Jack Murchie starts in the back row and Josh Curran & Isaiah Papali’i join the bench. In recent history these two sides have been relatively even in winning two a piece from their last four and despite the Eels embarrassing loss last week and their injury losses they have been installed as confident favourites. As a result we’re quite happy to take the Eels on as the Warriors have matched it with some of the competitions best in recent weeks and with their season on the line we are confident in them keeping this close and covering the line, a feat they have done in their last three matches.
Recommended Bet: New Zealand Warriors +6.5 $1.90
North Queensland Cowboys ($2.35) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.60)
Sunday, 6th September 6:30pm, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
The final game of the round sees two teams dwelling in the bottom eight in the North Queensland Cowboys & the St. George Illawarra Dragons clash at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. With both sides' finals aspirations over for the year they are playing for their pride, their future and the chance to impress their new coaches for next year. Both sides are yet to find out who their new coach is set to be but with the Cowboys sitting on a nine game losing streak and the Dragons coming off a shock loss to the Titans there’s still plenty to play for here. For the Dragons their loss to the Titans was the result of a capitulation in the last 10 minutes and their failure to close out a game where they dominated possession and completed at 91% will frustrate fans. On the other hand the Cowboys were cruelled by another injury as Michael Morgan went down early and they lost the battle in the forwards without Jason Taumalolo. As a result the Sharks were able to spend the majority of the match in the Cowboys half and when the Cowboys did get the ball back they often lost it by making 16 errors. As a result of their injuries Jake Clifford is recalled into the halves as he is joined by Scott Drinkwater who moves from fullback as a result of Valentine Holmes shifting to the back. Esan Marsters is also recalled in the centres for Connelly Lumuelu and Gavin Cooper comes into the starting side with Coen Hess out suspended. For the Dragons their only change is the return of Tyrell Fuimaono from suspension as he replaces Trent Merrin on the pine. With these key outs the Dragons have been installed as slight favourites and rightfully so after earning four of the last five wins against the Cowboys. In these matches they have generally been quite close, with three of them being decided by 12 points or less and as a result we will take the Dragons to win by 1-12 in the last match of the round.
Recommended Bet: St. George Illawarra Dragons 1-12 $3.00
