NRL Round 15 Preview
Round 14 saw the top 8 separate themselves from the rest of the pack for the first time this season in a round that was characterised by close victories to teams in the top 8 as well as a couple of spirited performances from teams in the bottom 8. Read on as we preview this week's games, which include a couple of top 8 clashes and important games in the race away from the wooden spoon.
Parramatta Eels ($1.62) vs Melbourne Storm ($2.30)
Thursday, 20th August 7:50pm, Bankwest Stadium
Round 15 kicks off with a potential finals preview as the second placed Melbourne Storm take on the third placed Parramatta Eels at Bankwest Stadium. Both teams will be desperate for a win as they look to maintain pace with the runaway leaders the Panthers and with the possibility of a win securing them a home final then there’s plenty to play for. Add to the fact that the Storm hold a 4 match winning streak against the Eels and the Eels are coming off an unexpected & frustrating loss to the Dragons then you can expect a finals like atmosphere come Thursday. Last week the Eels were left shell shocked by the Dragons as they made 14 errors and missed 30 tackles in an uncharacteristic performance where their attack looked stale as they managed only 12 points in a 2 point loss. On the other hand the Storm put in one of their best performances of the season as they ran away 24-6 winners against the Roosters in a game where they completely dominated up the middle thanks to relentless pressure & line speed and did so without two of their star players in Cameron Munster & Cameron Smith. This week sees the Storm take another injury hit as Dale Finucane has been struck down with a calf injury which sees Tino Fa’asuamaleaui start at lock & Albert Vete join the bench whilst Suliasi Vunivalu is out with a broken jaw and is replaced by Sandor Earl on the wing. With both Smith & Munster on the sidelines the playmaking duties will land largely on halfback Jahrome Hughes, who is also under an injury cloud, but is confident of playing. For the Eels coach Brad Arthur has named the same 17 from last week as he gives them a chance at redemption for their poor round 14 effort. As mentioned previously the Storm hold a dominant record against the Eels and with the Eels poor performance last week then we are quite perplexed by the current market. To our surprise the Eels have been instilled as favourites and we are quite happy to take them on with the Storm line. With the Eels averaging under 15 points in attack against the Sharks, Dragons & Bulldogs; teams who haven’t been renowned for their defence, then we are confident that the league's best defence in the Storm can hold out the Eels and cover this week's line.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm +4.5 $1.85
Penrith Panthers ($1.32) vs Cronulla Sharks ($3.40)
Friday, 21st August 6:00pm, Panthers Stadium
The second top eight clash of the round sees the ladder leaders the Penrith Panthers take on the seventh placed Cronulla Shark at Panthers Stadium as they look to make it their 10th consecutive win. Along this streak the Panthers have looked convincing in almost all of their wins as they streak away at the top of the table and their 56-24 demolition of this Sharks side back in round 9 will be fresh in the minds of both teams. If the Sharks are to overturn this scoreline then it will take a mammoth turnaround in defence as they missed a huge 47 tackles last time round and struggled to hold onto the ball throughout the match. Thankfully the Sharks can take confidence in their own resurgent form that has seen them win 4 from their last 5 since this loss to the Panthers. As a result of both teams convincing form over recent weeks both sides will take the same 17 from last week's game into this week's game, with the only likely change being the gameday swap of Toby Rudolf to the bench & Jack Williams to lock, as per recent weeks. As mentioned previously the Panthers already boast one win against the Sharks this year, bringing their streak against them to two, but after losing seven consecutive games to them across the last 4 years they know the danger that the Sharks pose. Across this period a large number of these games featured a lot of points and with the Sharks apparent focus on attack this year as well as the Panthers ability to score points quickly then it is the total points market that we are attracted to here. With their last three games going over the total points line set for this week then we are happy to look at the overs again in this one.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 43.5 $1.88
Brisbane Broncos ($3.60) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.30)
Friday, 21st August 7:55pm, Suncorp Stadium
Friday’s prime time game sees two of the competitions bottom 8 teams clash as the Brisbane Broncos take on the St. George Illawarra Dragons at Suncorp Stadium. This game could prove largely important for the struggling Broncos as they sit one Bulldogs win away from being at the bottom of the table and with the Dogs taking on the Warriors this week then there is every chance that this could be the week. If the Broncos are to avoid this and secure just their second win since the competition restart then it’s going to take a huge improvement in their second half efforts. Across the last 5 weeks they have been outscored 60-0 in the final 20 minutes as they appear to lack the fitness, focus & resilience to close out games at the moment. On the other hand the Dragons put in a gallant performance for Paul McGregor's last game as coach as they downed the third placed Eels 14-12 in a spirited effort that was highlighted by their never say die attitude. As a result interim coach Dean Young has remained faithful with the same starting 13 players but has recalled Paul Vaughan after he served his Covid protocol breach as he takes Tristan Sailor’s bench spot. For the Broncos they lose a couple of big forwards as both Payne Haas & Thomas Flegler are out due to suspension & injury respectively, meaning that Joe Ofahengaue & Rhys Kennedy will form the new front row combination as Ethan Bullemor and Jamil Hopoate take their bench spots. The Broncos also lose Jake Turpin to a hand injury as Isaac Luke starts at hooker whilst Brodie Croft is dropped for Anthony Milford in the halves and Jordan Kahu takes Jesse Arthars backline spot. With the Broncos mass changes it is hard to see them fronting up against a large Dragons forward pack. Add to the fact that the Dragons boast the last 3 wins against the Broncos, including 2 up at Suncorp then we are keen on the Dragons in this one. With the Broncos losing 4 of their last 5 by more than this week's line and with the loss of the two leaders of their forward pack then we will take the Dragons line in what should be a winning start to Dean Youngs head coaching career.
Recommended Bet: St. George Illawarra Dragons -10.5 $1.85
Gold Coast Titans ($4.00) vs Canberra Raiders ($1.25)
Saturday, 22nd August 3:00pm, Cbus Super Stadium
Saturday’s first game sees the Gold Coast Titans welcome the Canberra Raiders to Cbus Super Stadium as the Raiders look to maintain touch with the top four whilst the Titans look to avenge their 24-6 loss to the Raiders from round one of this season. This loss was the Titans 3rd in a row against the Raiders and they will be hoping for an effort similar to their first 40 minutes against the Sharks from last week. In this match the Sharks prevailed 30-18 but with the scores at 12 all at halftime the Titans were right in it until they had Kevin Proctor sent off for biting. Unfortunately for the Titans they will be without Proctor this week and he will be sorely missed against a Raiders forward pack littered with international experience. Last week the Raiders put in another commanding performance as they downed the Broncos 36-8 on the back of a 2 try performance from Nick Cotric as they secured their fourth win from their last five matches. As a result the only change the Raiders have made is switching Hudson Young to start at lock with Ryan Sutton reverting to the interchange as they keep the same 17 from last week. For the Titans both wingers Anthony Don & Phillip Sami return as Young Tonumaipea shifts into the centres & Corey Thompson drops out. In the forwards Jai Arrow is out with injury as Jarrod Wallace starts & Moeaki Fotuaika shifts to lock whilst Beau Fermor takes Proctors back row position. With the Titans losing two key members of their forward pack then it will be a tough ask to front up against one of the competitions best forward packs in the Raiders and we are keen on the Raiders after their dominant attacking performance last week. To add a bit more value the Raiders have covered this week's line against the Titans in their last four victories against them and we are happy to take them on that again.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders -10.5 $1.90
Wests Tigers ($3.10) vs Sydney Roosters ($1.37)
Saturday, 22nd August 5:30pm, Leichhardt Oval
A huge match for both sides as the Wests Tigers take on the Sydney Roosters at Leichhardt Oval with both sides respective top 8 and top 4 aspirations on the line. For the Tigers they currently sit two wins outside the top 8 and with a shaky win against the last placed Bulldogs last week then the chances of them featuring in finals appear to be diminishing. In this win they led 22-6 only to find themselves down 28-22 with 10 minutes to go and were lucky to come away with a 29-28 win thanks to a Luke Brooks field goal in a performance that would have frustrated coach Michael Maguire. If they want to have any chance of playing finals then they will almost certainly have to beat a depleted Roosters side whose injuries appeared to have finally taken a toll on them as they went down 24-6 to the Storm last week. This loss was characterised by a huge 17 errors from the Roosters as they completed at only 66% in what will be a concerning sign with four teams currently within one win of their top four spot. Thankfully for the Roosters they welcome back Brett Morris & Jared Waerea-Hargreaves to the starting side as Christian Tuipulotu drops out and Nat Butcher shifts to the back row to cover for the injured Mitch Aubusson. In the halves the Roosters feature a new pairing of Kyle Flanagan & Drew Hutchison as both Luke Keary & Lachlan Lam are out with injury and Freddy Lussick starts on the bench in his debut. On the other hand the Tigers remain unchanged with their only possible change being the return of Alex Twal as he is named in jersey number 18. In recent history the Roosters have had the wood over the Tigers in winning their last three encounters and with two of these wins coming by 8 points or less then we are keen on them in another tight one this week. With the Roosters not losing two in a row since the first two rounds of this year as well as the return of a couple key players and the expected reaction from such a disappointing performance then we are leaning towards them by 1-12 for Saturday’s second game.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 1-12 $2.85
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.38) vs Manly Sea Eagles ($3.05)
Saturday, 22nd August 7:35pm, ANZ Stadium
Another largely important game for the makeup of the top eight sees the 8th placed South Sydney Rabbitohs take on the 10th placed Manly Sea Eagles at ANZ Stadium. The Sea Eagles finals aspirations are arguably on the line here as, like the Tigers, they sit 2 wins outside the top 8 & South's position and a loss to them here would leave them with an almost insurmountable gap to close with only 5 games to go. Last week the Sea Eagles suffered another frustrating loss as they blew away a 12-0 lead against the Knights to go down 26-24 on the back of some ill discipline that saw them give away 11 penalties. On the other hand the Rabbitohs managed to overcome a 30-24 deficit late in the match against the Cowboys as they ran away 31-30 winners in a highly entertaining game. Souths largely improved attack will concern the Sea Eagles as they have conceded 94 points across their last 3 games and will be hoping to overcome a 2 game losing streak against the Rabbitohs. This week sees the Rabbitohs make just the one change as Liam Knight is out suspended meaning that Bailey Sironen returns to the starting side and Jack Johns comes onto the bench. For the Sea Eagles they lose fullback Brendan Elliot to an ACL injury as Reuben Garrick shifts to fullback and Jorge Taufua comes onto the wing whilst Marty Taupau returns in the front row with Corey Waddell back to the bench and Jack Gosiewski drops out. With the Sea Eagles gaining Taupau back and Souths losing Knight the Sea Eagles seem to have the edge in the forwards coming into this one. Add to the fact that the Sea Eagles almost have to win this one and that Souths are coming off a trip up to Townsville then we are looking towards the Sea Eagles with the start in this one in what could be a game that could go either way.
Recommended Bet: Manly Sea Eagles +7.5 $1.90
Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.35) vs New Zealand Warriors ($1.60)
Sunday, 23rd August 2:00pm, ANZ Stadium
The penultimate game of round 15 sees the last placed Canterbury Bulldogs take on the 12th placed New Zealand Warriors in what may be one of their best remaining chances to secure a win that could help get them off the bottom of the table. The Bulldogs will be confident in their chances too after a much improved last month of footy, barring the Storm game, as they have beaten one top 8 team and pushed the Eels & the Tigers to the brink. During this period they have shown a resilience that hasn’t been seen in the past and they will be hoping to avenge their 34 point loss to the Warriors from last year. Like the Bulldogs the Warriors have also shown a new found resilience and character in recent weeks as they have knocked off the Tigers & Sea Eagles whilst pushing the Panthers & the Roosters in close matches. This week sees both teams make a couple of changes. For the Warriors Hayze Perham comes into the side as Adam Pompey moves to the wing & Patrick Herbert misses out whilst Eliesa Katoa is suspended meaning Isaiah Papali’i comes into the starting side and Jack Murchie onto the bench. For the Bulldogs Will Hopoate returns at fullback as Nick Meaney moves to the wing whilst Jeremy Marshall-King, Aiden Tolman & Matt Doorey come into the starting 13 as Sione Katoa & Luke Thompson move to the bench whilst Dylan Napa is suspended. In recent history both sides have been relatively even in winning two a piece from their last four and barring their most recent match their previous four have been decided by 12 points or less. We are expecting another close fixture between these two sides and with the Warriors better form line against the Panthers and wins against the Sea Eagles & Tigers then we’re happy to take the Warriors in a close one.
Recommended Bet: New Zealand Warriors 1-12 $2.95
Newcastle Knights ($1.32) vs North Queensland Cowboys ($3.40)
Sunday, 23rd August 4:05pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
The final game of the round sees the Newcastle Knights take on the North Queensland Cowboys at McDonald Jones Stadium as they look to stay in the fight for a top four spot. The Knights currently sit in sixth spot, 1 point outside the top four and with a relatively soft run to finish the season they will be hoping to push towards a double chance come finals time. Last week the Knights overcame a 12-0 deficit early on against the Sea Eagles to prevail 26-24 on the back of 2 try assists from fullback Kalyn Ponga. This win was pivotal for the Knights as they have managed just 3 wins from their last 6 and they will be hoping to avenge a 32-20 loss to the Cowboys from round 7 of this year. In this win the Cowboys caught the Knights shell shocked as they raced out to a 26-0 lead at half time and the Cowboys will be hoping for another dominant attacking performance. Last week the Cowboys squandered a 30-24 lead with 5 minutes to go to lose 31-30 to the Rabbitohs and if it wasn’t for some ill discipline & some wayward kicking then they would have come away with the 2 points. This loss infuriated interim coach Josh Hannay who has been vocal about his teams defensive effort & decision making as he hopes to notch his first win as interim coach. Despite the frustrating periods the Cowboys are going through Hannay has made just the one change with Reuben Cotter taking Jake Granville’s spot. For the Knights Daniel Saifiti has broken down with another knee injury as his brother Jacob will start at prop and Pasami Saulo comes onto the bench. With the Knights losing a key forwards member and both sides coming off tough, close encounters we are predicting this to be a close game between the two sides. The Cowboys, despite losing and barring the Titans loss, have been in with a chance in all games and with Michael Morgan improving with each game then we are happy to take them with the line after having covered 2 of their last 3 lines.
Recommended Bet: North Queensland Cowboys +8.5 $1.90
