NRL Round 14 Preview
Round 13 saw the top four continue to stretch their gap from the chasing pack as well as a couple of interesting results to teams hovering around the 8 and two demoralising losses for the two biggest clubs in Queensland. Read on as we preview round 14, which includes a replay of the 2018 grand final and a couple of Sydney rivals clashing.
Sydney Roosters ($1.45) vs Melbourne Storm ($2.75)
Thursday, 13th August 7:50pm, Sydney Cricket Ground
Round 14 kicks off with a replay of the 2018 NRL Grand Final as the Sydney Roosters welcome the Melbourne Storm to Sydney Cricket Ground in what is another edition of one of the great modern day rivalries. Over recent years both teams have played in some of the great clashes with 4 wins a piece from their last 8 meetings, with an average winning margin of just over 4 points during this period. This trend of close encounters is becoming quite the tradition for these two sides and if their clash in round 8 is anything to go by, which the Storm won by 2 points in extra time, then we are set for another thrilling match come Thursday. Both sides will be confident in their chances too as the Roosters sit on a 3 game winning streak after an 8 point win against the Dragons whilst the Storm are on a 7 game winning streak with their last win being a 31 point victory against the Bulldogs. Unfortunately this week both sides are heavily depleted as a result of a number of injuries. For the Storm they will still be without Cameron Munster & Cameron Smith as Ryley Jacks takes Munster’s halves spot from last week, Ryan Papenhuyzen returns at fullback and Dale Finucane comes back into the lock position with Nicho Hynes & Tino Faasuamaleaui reverting to the bench. On the other hand the Roosters welcome back Josh Morris into the centres as Mitch Aubusson moves to the back row and Nat Butcher reverts to the bench in their only change. With both teams showing their ability to find a way to win over recent weeks this game looks a tough one to pick on paper but with the two massive outs of arguably the Storm’s two best players in Smith & Munster we are leaning towards the Roosters in this one. For a little bit of value we lean towards the aforementioned trend of close encounters between the side and we will tip the Roosters to get over the line by 1-12 and square up their encounters with the Storm this year to 1-1.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 1-12 $2.65
New Zealand Warriors ($6.50) vs Penrith Panthers ($1.11)
Friday, 14th August 6:00pm, Central Coast Stadium
Friday’s first game sees the top of the table Penrith Panthers take on a spirited New Zealand Warriors side at Central Coast Stadium. The Warriors have been one of the most inspiring teams of 2020 as despite a number of challenges including relocating to Australia to live, train & play, losing their coach and also a number of players they have continued to turn up each week and they notched their 5th win of the season last week. In this win they defeated a Manly side who many had tipped for a top 8 spot and did so on the back of a 85% completion rate across 80 minutes in what was an impressive all round performance. Unfortunately for them they take on a Penrith side who are without a doubt the form team of the competition after 8 consecutive wins. During this period the Panthers have cruised through on the back of half Nathan Cleary, who again was pivotal in their 28-12 win against last year's grand finalist and 5th placed team the Canberra Raiders. As a result of this win and the Panthers consistent form across recent months coach Ivan Cleary has named the same 17 from last week’s victory for this week's game. For the Warriors they lose Penrith loaned prop Jack Hetherington to suspension as Lachlan Burr moves into the starting side and Isaiah Papali’i joins the bench. In recent history the Panthers have dominated this contest in winning 3 of their last 4 meetings, including a 26-0 thumping of the Warriors from round 4 of this year. With this streak and the Panthers red hot form it is hard to see this being anything but another Panthers win. Where there appears to be a little bit of value is in the line market. With the Panthers putting on 70 points in their last two outings whilst only conceding 24 points as well as having covered the line in these matches too then we are leaning towards a repeat of their round 4 thumping of the Warriors, covering the line in the process.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers -17.5 $1.90
Parramatta Eels ($1.24) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons ($4.05)
Friday, 14th August 7:55pm, Bankwest Stadium
Friday’s prime time game sees the a clash between two Sydney sides in the Parramatta Eels and the St. George Illawarra Dragons as they meet at Bankwest Stadium. Both sides will be eager for wins for different reasons as the Eels look to maintain pace with the top of the table whilst the Dragons will likely have to win all of their remaining games if they’re to be any chance of playing finals footy this year. Last week the Eels scraped through against the Sharks in a 2 point victory that was marred by wet weather as the Eels made 15 mistakes. For the Dragons they were defeated by a severely undermanned Roosters side as they went down 24-16 and failed to make a dent in the Roosters defence. This loss will concern coach Paul McGregor as his side had all the momentum coming into halftime at 10-10 but came back and looked worrying under the high ball and lost in attack. As a result McGregor has recalled Corey Norman into the halves, allowing Ben Hunt to shift to hooker & Cameron McInnes to lock as Jackson Ford is suspended and Tyrell Fuimaono starts in the back row for the injured Tariq Sims. For the Eels they welcome back star back rower Ryan Matterson from concussion as Marata Niukore drops to the bench and Andrew Davey misses out. Matterson’s inclusion could prove a big tipping point in this contest and with the Eels boasting 9 wins from their last 10 meetings against the Dragons then they are deserved favourites for this one. When looking more closely at these 9 wins, 6 of them have been by 12 points or more and for this reason we are happy to take the Eels line against what looks a depleted Dragons side.
Recommended Bet: Parramatta Eels -11.5 $1.90
Cronulla Sharks ($1.27) vs Gold Coast Titans ($3.80)
Saturday, 15th August 3:00pm, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
Saturday footy kicks off with the 8th placed Cronulla Sharks taking on the 13th placed Gold Coast Titans at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium. Last week the Titans earned their first win in 5 weeks as they downed the North Queensland Cowboys 30 points to 10 on the back of a dominant showing from their forward pack where they ran for over 500m more than the Cowboys. This win moved them up to 13th on the ladder and they will be looking to earn their first win against the Sharks since 2017, a streak of 4 losses. For the Sharks they will feel hard done by as they went down to the Eels 14-12 in a game that was filled with missed opportunity and controversy. Their missed opportunities was largely due to the fact that they missed all 3 conversions, a trait that haunted them last year, and they will be desperate to bounce back with a win against a Titans side who they beat 40-10 in round 8 of this year. As a result of both sides' spirited showings last week there has been minimal changes to their starting sides. For the Sharks the only change that they have made has been recalling Jack Williams, who was a late withdrawal from last week's game, as he takes the place of Teig Wilton. The Titans remain unchanged from last week's victory. As we mentioned previously the Sharks have a dominant record against the Titans and with the match being in Sydney, where the Titans haven’t won all season, then we are leaning towards another Sharks victory come Saturday. For a little bit of extra value the Sharks have beaten the Titans by 10 points or more in 2 of their last 3 meetings and we are tipping them to make light work of the Titans again this week.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks -9.5 $1.90
North Queensland Cowboys ($3.10) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.37)
Saturday, 15th August 5:30pm, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Things continue to go from bad to worse for the North Queensland Cowboys as they slumped to their 6th consecutive loss against the Titans last week and it doesn’t get any easier this week as they take on a South Sydney Rabbitohs side who are on a 2 game winning streak. The Cowboys have arguably been one of the biggest disappointments of the year as their inconsistent performances has seen them fall to 14th on the ladder and with a relatively tough run to finish off the year they’ll be desperate for a win soon. Last week their performance was riddled with errors as they made 15 of them and missed a whopping 34 tackles and interim coach Josh Hannay has been critical of their performance in the public. Whether this will get the reaction that he is after remains to be seen as they look to overcome a 4 game losing streak against the Rabbitohs. For the Rabbitohs they will be brimming with confidence after two strong wins against the Dragons & the Broncos where they have piled on 60 points in attack and now find themselves in 7th place on the ladder. As a result of their strong performances the only change that Souths have made for this week has been the return of Jaydn Su’a in the back row from suspension as Liam Knight shifts to the bench and Jack Johns drops out. For the Cowboys Scott Drinkwater will return at fullback as Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow moves out to the wing to take Justin O’Neil’s place and John Asiata takes the bench spot of Tom Gilbert. Despite these changes it’s hard to see the Cowboys improving enough, against a side who are top 8 quality, in order to earn a win but they should have enough about them at home to stay in the fight in this one. In the last 4 meetings between the sides the Rabbitohs have won by 12 points or less in 3 of their wins and with that in mind we will lean towards the Rabbitohs by 1-12 as they continue their march up the table.
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs 1-12 $2.85
Canberra Raiders ($1.13) vs Brisbane Broncos ($6.00)
Saturday, 15th August 7:35pm, GIO Stadium
Saturday’s prime time game sees the struggling Brisbane Broncos travel south to take on the Canberra Raiders at GIO Stadium. Both teams are coming off frustrating losses from last week and with the Broncos enduring a week from hell in the media then you can bet there will be plenty on the line come Saturday. For the Raiders they were blown off the park by the ladder leaders the Panthers as they trailed 24-0 at half time only to come back and lose 28-12 as they lost the battle in the forwards and were outclassed in attack. For the Broncos they put in a frustrating performance as their middle forwards were completely outclassed and missed crucial tackles in the defence that resulted in 2 of Souths tries. To make matters worse for the Broncos is that this week they will be without Tevita Pangai-Junior due to breaching of covid protocols as Ben Teo comes into the starting side and Jordan Riki comes onto the bench for his debut and Isaac Luke is also dropped for Corey Paix on the bench. On the other hand Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has stuck faith with the same 17 from last week as hooker Siliva Havili has overcome a tricep scare to start. Despite the Broncos having won 6 from their last 7 meetings against the Raiders it’s hard to go near them with their form in 2020 and with the Raiders strong home form this season, where their only loss has been a narrow one to the Storm, then we are leaning towards them in this one. Unfortunately the market hasn’t missed the Raiders in this one as they have been heavily backed in and the line is set well into the double digits, representing not much value in our opinion. Where there does appear to be a bit of value is in the total points market as both sides attack have been an area of weakness so far this year. The Raiders are averaging just 18 points in attack with a highest score of 24 all season and an average of 14 in the last 3 weeks, whilst the Broncos are averaging 13 points in attack with a highest score of 28 and an average of 14 in the last 3 weeks. With this in mind and the total points line set relatively high we will look for the unders in what should be a dominant win for the Raiders.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 39.5 $1.93
Newcastle Knights ($1.38) vs Manly Sea Eagles ($3.05)
Sunday, 16th August 2:00pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
A massive game in terms of the makeup of the top 8 is brought to us in Sunday’s first game as the 6th placed Newcastle Knights take on the 9th placed Manly Sea Eagles at McDonald Jones Stadium. With 3 points separating the two sides on the ladder and the Sea Eagles in danger of losing touch with the top 8 this game could have a huge effect on who plays finals this year. Both sides have been in relatively inconsistent form of late too, with both teams winning just 2 of their last 5 matches. Thankfully for the Knights one of their wins came last week when they dismantled the Tigers by 44 points to 4 thanks to 20 points from star fullback Kalyn Ponga. On the other hand the Sea Eagles suffered their second consecutive loss as they went down 26-22 to the Warriors in a performance that was riddled by errors, as they made 11 of them, and another slow start where they trailed 16-0 after just 18 minutes. Thankfully for Sea Eagles coach Des Hasler he has been able to recall a number of stars for this week's clash. Both starting back rowers, Joel Thompson & Curtis Sironen, return from injury as Haumole Olakau’atu & Corey Waddell drop to the interchange whilst Brad Parker returns in the centres and Taniela Paseka takes the spot of the injured Addin Fonua-Blake. For the Knights they welcome back origin forward Daniel Saifiti as his brother Jacob drops to the bench and Brodie Jones drops out. In recent history these two teams have been relatively even with 2 wins a piece from their last 4 although their most recent encounter came back in round 8 where the Knights won 14-12 at Lottoland. This win was on the back of another fast start against the Sea Eagles and if they are to have any chance of making finals then they need to change that quickly. With the Sea Eagles still lacking the flair of Tom Trbojevic and having lost Fonua-Blake against a Knights side who have strengthened from last week then we are leaning towards the Knights in this one. Add to the fact that they already boast one win against the Sea Eagles from earlier this year and we are happy to take them 1-12, a margin they have won by in their last 3 against the men from Manly.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights 1-12 $2.80
Wests Tigers ($1.41) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.90)
Sunday, 16th August 4:05pm, Bankwest Stadium
The final game of the round sees a Western Sydney derby between the Wests Tigers & the Canterbury Bulldogs at Bankwest Stadium. Both teams will be reeling in disappointment from last week's games as both sides conceded over 40 points in embarrassing losses. The Tigers loss came to 6th placed Newcastle Knights as they capitulated in both attack and defence with 15 errors, 65% completion rate and 31 missed tackles. This was their third consecutive loss in a row, with their last two being particularly poor in terms of effort and they will need a much improved performance if they are to add to their win against the Bulldogs from round 7 of this year. For the Bulldogs their 41-10 loss against the Storm was a step in the wrong direction from their two spirited efforts against the Knights & the Eels and interim coach Steve Georgallis will know that another lapse in concentration could prove costly against a team who can score points quickly, such as the Tigers. To make matters worse for the Bulldogs is the loss of Lachlan Lewis in the halves, who is suspended and replaced by Jack Cogger as well as Jake Averillo going down with a hip injury and is replaced by Kerrod Holland in the centres. For the Tigers they welcome back Jacob Liddle at hooker as Moses Mbye moves back to the centres & Tommy Talau to the wing whilst Luke Garner is recalled in the back row with Chris Lawrence moving to the bench and Josh Reynolds joins the bench after Billy Walters season ending injury. As we mentioned previously the Tigers already boast a win against the Bulldogs from earlier this year, a 34-6 demolition of the Bulldogs, and with the Tigers gaining a couple key players back as well as the Bulldogs losing a couple then we can see it going this way again. It’s hard to see the Tigers losing 4 straight and we are tipping them to bounce back in style and cover this week’s relatively small line in style.
Recommended Bet: Wests Tigers -7.5 $1.90
