NRL Round 13 Preview
Round 12 proved an interesting round in the race for a top 8 spot as a number of teams lost players to injuries whilst others look to be going through a mid season slump as they scraped through against lesser teams. Read on as we look at the fixtures in round 13, which include some classic grudge matches and grand final rematches.
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($4.10) vs Sydney Roosters ($1.24)
Thursday, 6th August 7:50pm, WIN Stadium
Round 13 kicks off with a Sydney grudge match between longtime rivals and 2010 grand finalists the St. George Illawarra Dragons and the Sydney Roosters at WIN Stadium. Both teams are currently going through what appears to be a mid-season slump, which is largely the result of injuries forcing a couple of changes to their normal sides. Despite this midseason slump the difference between the two sides has been that the Roosters have continued to find a way to win, albeit in ugly fashion, whilst the Dragons have found a way to lose over the last couple weeks. For the Roosters their wins may have come against lesser opposition in the Warriors & the Titans but they can take confidence that despite lacking the same execution in attack, their defence has still been a highlight in conceding just 22 points in these games. If there is a game where their attack could benefit from then it may be this one against the Dragons too. Over the last two weeks the Dragons have conceded 60 points in their losses to the Sharks & the Rabbitohs and they look a shadow of the team that held Manly to 4 points just a month ago. If the Dragons are to prevail with anything from this match then they will be hoping that the return of Adam Clune adds some direction to their attack and Trent Merrin adds some punch off the bench as they take the places of Corey Norman and Jacob Host for this week respectively. For the Roosters they welcome back Josh Morris into the centres as Sitili Tupouniua moves to the back row but they lose Kyle Flanagan as Lachlan Lam starts in the halves and Drew Hutchison joins the bench. When looking at recent history between the two sides the Roosters already boast a win over the Dragons from this year as they prevailed by 26 points to 12 in round 7, a victory that saw both Victor Radley & Sam Verrills go down with ACL injuries early on. This victory was the Roosters fourth consecutive against the Dragons and with the Dragons going through a rough patch in terms of their defence we are tipping the Roosters to bounce back to form by winning by 13+, a margin that they have done so in 3 of their last 4 victories against the Dragons.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 13+ $2.00
Manly Sea Eagles ($1.22) vs New Zealand Warriors ($4.35)
Friday, 7th August 6:00pm, Lottoland
A replay of the 2011 grand final sees the Manly Sea Eagles welcome the New Zealand Warriors to Lottoland in the first game on Friday in what is a huge game for both sides. For the Sea Eagles they will be desperate for a win after being embarrassed by competition leaders the Panthers 42-12 last week and dropped out of the top 8 after only just reentering it the week before. In this loss the Sea Eagles showed some concerning signs with their lack of effort and intent in defence late in the game and they will need to improve drastically this week against a Warrior's side who will be looking to make it back-to-back wins for the first time in 2020. Last week the Warriors pulled off arguably the upset of the round when they showed their resilience to come from 14-8 down at halftime to overcome the Tigers 26-20 on the back of a 279 metre effort from captain Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. Unfortunately for the Warriors this week they will be without veteran half Blake Green who has moved to the Knights in a mid-season transfer and he is replaced by young gun Chanel Harris-Tavita in the starting side. For the Sea Eagles they have lost two of their star backline members to injury as Brad Parker is replaced by Tevita Funa in the centres and Cade Cust takes Dylan Walker’s spot in the halves. Without both of these players the Sea Eagles attack has suffered in recent times and they will be looking to bounce back after losing their last fixture against the Warriors by 8 points last year. Despite this loss both sides are relatively even with 2 wins a piece in the last 2 years but it is the margin of these wins where there appears to be a bit of value. In 3 of the Warriors last 4 losses to the Sea Eagles the margin has been less that this week's line and with the Sea Eagles only passing this winning margin in 2 of their 6 wins all year then we are leaning towards the Warriors line in what could be a closer game than the current market suggests.
Recommended Bet: New Zealand Warriors +11.5 $2.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.27) vs Brisbane Broncos ($3.75)
Friday, 7th August 7:55pm, ANZ Stadium
Friday’s prime time game sees a clash between two teams who are not shy of hiding their disagreements as the South Sydney Rabbitohs take on the Brisbane Broncos at ANZ Stadium. Both coaches have been vocal in expressing their feelings about their coaching swap prior to the 2019 season and how it has turned out for each individual and with Wayne Bennet currently holding a 2 wins to 1 lead over Anthony Seibold since then there is plenty to play for for both sides. Add to this the fact that the Broncos are sitting dangerously close to the wooden spoon then Broncos coach Seibold knows that this may be one of his last chances to stake a claim to remain as Broncos coach. In recent weeks the Broncos have been simply outclassed in all areas and with their 36-26 loss to the Sharks last week, a match that they led 26-18 with 10 minutes to go, there is huge pressure on their experienced players to stand up. On the other hand the Rabbitohs put in a tremendous performance last week as they overcame a 16-0 deficit early on against the Dragons to run away 32-24 thanks to a scintillating performance from Cody Walker and 3 tries from Alex Johnston. This result was made even more impressive by the fact that Adam Reynolds went down after just 10 minutes and they will be boosted by his return as they have named the same 17 from last week. For the Broncos they will be without Anthony Milford who is out with a hamstring injury and is replaced by Brodie Croft but they welcome back star backrower David Fifita who slots straight into the starting back row with Joe Ofahengaue moving to the bench and Ethan Bullemor out of the 17. Despite the return of David Fifita and the Rabbitohs being one of the three teams that the Broncos have defeated this year there isn’t much love for the Queenslanders in the current betting market. The Rabbitohs have been heavily supported, into an almost unbackable price, and for that reason we are leaning towards the total points market for this one. In the last eight games between these two sides the total points has gone over the line that is set for this week's game and with both sides managing 26 & 32 points in attack last week as well as the return of some big attacking players then we will look towards another high scoring shootout between these two sides.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 38.5 $1.90
Melbourne Storm ($1.13) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($6.00)
Saturday, 8th August 3:00pm, Sunshine Coast Stadium
Another grand final replay is brought to us with the first game of Saturday as the 2012 grand finalists the Melbourne Storm and the Canterbury Bulldogs clash at Sunshine Coast Stadium. Unfortunately for viewers both sides aren’t at the same level that they were in 2012 as the Bulldogs are currently fighting to get off the bottom of the table whilst the Storm sit second on the table but will be without Cameron Smith for this week's clash. To the Bulldogs credit they have put together two spirited efforts in recent weeks as they downed the Knights 18-12 two weeks ago before coming from 18-0 down to lose 18-16 against the 3rd placed Eels. This level of effort is something that hasn’t been seen from the Dogs all year and they will need every bit of it if they are to come away with anything against a Storm side on a 6 game winning streak. Throughout this streak the Storm have shown their energy in attack by demolishing a number of the bottom sides whilst also coming away with tight wins against top 8 teams the Raiders & Knights. As we mentioned before although they will be without Cameron Smith as his apparent successor Brandon Smith will have the opportunity to stake his claim for the Storm number 9 jersey for years to come. To add to the Storms woes has been the loss of electric fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen who is replaced by Nicho Hynes, Marion Seve is replaced by Justin Olam in the centres and Ryley Jacks & Albert Vete join the bench. For the Bulldogs Ofahiki Ogden & Sione Katoa switch spots from the bench to the starting side with Aiden Tolman & Jeremy Marshall-King whilst Jack Cogger loses his bench spot to outside back Reimis Smith. As expected, in recent history the Storm have dominated this contest in winning their last 4 meetings but with a couple of key outs this game could be a little bit closer than expected. One area that does look appealing is the total points market again. In 7 of their last 8 meetings the total points between the two sides has been under the line set for this week's fixture and with the Storm lacking two of their key attacking players in Smith & Papenhuyzen as well as the Bulldogs renewed defensive energy then we are keen the total points going under this weeks line.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 41.5 $1.88
Newcastle Knights ($1.65) vs Wests Tigers ($2.25)
Saturday, 8th August 5:30pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
Potentially a top 8 defining clash between the Newcastle Knights and the Wests Tigers takes place in the second fixture on Saturday at McDonald Jones Stadium. For the Knights they are currently on a two game losing streak, their first since being under new coach Adam O’Brien, and they will be desperate to get back in the winners circle as they take on a Tigers team who are also on a two game losing streak and sit just outside the top 8. During the Knights’ two game losing streak they have been shocked by the Bulldogs and out performed by the Storm as their attack looks to have gone stale with the loss of three hookers to injury. On the other hand the Tigers appear to be one of the hardest teams to get a read on as their loss to the Eels two weeks ago was full of effort and desire whilst their loss to the Warriors last week showed a lack of effort and desire. To make matters worse for Tigers fans is the loss of arguably their two best players so far this year with Harry Grant & Alex Twal both out injured and are replaced by Moses Mbye & Matt Eisenhuth. Tigers coach Michael Maguire has also recalled Luke Brooks into the halves, Joey Leilua into the centres, Russell Packer into the front row, Sam McIntyre into the back row and new recruit Asu Kepaoa debuts on the wing. As a result of these mass changes Tommy Talau shifts into the centres, Chris Lawrence & Billy Walters move to the bench and Luke Garner & Oliver Clark drop out of the side. For the Knights they will welcome in mid-season signing Blake Green to five eight, which allows Kurt Mann to move to hooker whilst Bradman Best & Tautau Moga are both out and replaced by Gehamat Shibasaki & Star Toa in the backline. In recent history the Tigers have been the dominant team over the Knights in winning 3 of the last 4 but they will have their 42-24 loss to the Knights from round 2 of this year fresh in their minds. This win was highlighted by some scintillating play from Knights fullback Kalyn Ponga and with the addition of Blake Green into the Knights halves then this should take a lot of the game management responsibility away from both him and Mitchell Pearce, freeing both of them up. As a result we are quite confident in the Knights running away with this one and with the loss of both Grant & Twal for the Tigers then we are keen on taking them with the short line.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights -3.5 $1.85
Penrith Panthers ($1.50) vs Canberra Raiders ($2.60)
Saturday, 8th August 7:35pm, Panthers Stadium
Arguably the game of the round sees the top of the table Penrith Panthers take on last year's grand finalists the Canberra Raiders at Panthers Stadium. Yet again the Panthers continued to put in another complete performance as they downed the Sea Eagles 42-12 thanks to a huge 18 points and 2 try assists from halfback Nathan Cleary. This win was their 7th consecutive win and they will be hoping to make it 8 straight against a Raiders side who boast the last two wins against them from last year. For the Raiders they continued to find a way to win despite their mammoth injury toll as they downed the Cowboys 14-12 away from home. This win was on the back of the return of John Bateman who ran for 158m, picked up a try assist and looked dangerous every time he touched the ball. This week sees both sides make minimal changes with the Panthers losing boom youngster Charlie Staines to a hamstring injury as he is replaced by Malakai Watene-Zelezniak on the wing. For the Raiders they get star fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad back from injury as Jordan Rapana moves out to the wing and Semi Valemi drops out. As we mentioned before the Raiders hold the last two wins against the Panthers but with the Panthers playing the best footy that they’ve played in years then we are leaning towards them in this one. The Raiders should have enough about them to keep it relatively close and with the Panthers last seven victories against the Raiders being by 9 points or less then we are keen on the Panthers by 1-12 in what should be a cracking contest.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers 1-12 $2.85
Gold Coast Titans ($2.10) vs North Queensland Cowboys ($1.74)
Sunday, 9th August 2:00pm, Cbus Super Stadium
A Queensland derby between the Gold Coast Titans and the North Queensland Cowboys has probably never had more importance as both sides sit on three and five game losing streaks respectively. With both teams languishing towards the bottom of the table they will be desperate for a win to ease the pressure on them with time running out in 2020. For the Cowboys they fell by 2 points to the Raiders in a game where again they had their fair share of chances but failed to capitalise as they lacked leadership in their spine in pivotal moments. On the other hand the Titans pushed the defending premiers the Roosters to the brink and came within a whisker of stealing a shock win against them if it wasn’t for a super defensive effort from Joey Manu. Despite losing, both sides will take confidence from their effort to stay in the fight and they will be hoping for similar efforts this week as the Cowboys look to extend on a 10 game winning streak against the Titans. To help their cause is the return of a few players including captain Michael Morgan who takes Jake Clifford’s spot in the halves, Josh McGuire who comes into the front row with Francis Molo moving to the bench and Tom Opacic comes into the centres as Justin O’Neil moves out to the wing. Mitch Dunn also takes the place of Shane Wright in the back row whilst Jake Granville & Emry Pere come onto the bench with John Asiata and Gavin Cooper out of the side. For the Titans their only change is a minor one on the bench with Sam Lisone returning in place of Sam Stone. With the Cowboys welcoming back a couple big players and their spirited effort against a top 4 contending team in the Raiders last week then we are leaning towards them to extend their winning streak against the Titans and covering this week's small line in doing so.
Recommended Bet: North Queensland Cowboys -1.5 $1.80
Cronulla Sharks ($3.00) vs Parramatta Eels ($1.39)
Sunday, 9th August 4:05pm, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
Round 13 finishes off as it started with another Sydney grudge match, this time between the 6th placed Cronulla Sharks and the 3rd placed Parramatta Eels at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium. The Sharks showed last week why you can’t write them off as they overcame an 8 point deficit with 10 minutes to go to score a 10 point win against the Broncos up at Suncorp Stadium. This win was their 3rd consecutive win as they continue to climb up the table despite a mammoth injury list to a number of key players. On the other hand the Eels fell over the line against the Bulldogs as they almost blew an 18-0 lead against the last placed Bulldogs to win 18-16. This win was their 2nd consecutive win but they face a much tougher task this week against a Sharks side who boast 6 of the last 7 victories against them. To make matters worse for the Eels is the fact that star back rower Ryan Matterson is still out due to a concussion with their only change being Ray Stone replacing Brad Takairangi on the bench. For the Sharks they welcome back a trio of players with Josh Dugan & Jesse Ramien returning in the centres as Siosifa Talakai moves into the back row with Briton Nikora dropped and Matt Moylan returns in the halves in place of Braydon Trindall. These additions could prove pivotal for the Sharks as they add a wealth of experience & speed to their backline, areas that they lacked at times last week. Add to the fact they boast the aforementioned superior record against the Eels and the Eels have looked a little bit out of touch over recent weeks then we are keen on taking the Sharks with the line to conclude round 13.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks +6.5 $1.90
