NRL Round 12 Preview
Round 11 saw the last placed team cause a massive upset to a team in the top 8 as well as some close fought games between a number of teams in what was a decent week in terms of tips. Read on as we preview this year’s Indigenous round and look to find some value in what looks like a couple of tricky betting games.
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($2.45) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.55)
Thursday, 30th July 7:50pm, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
Round 12 kicks off with a largely important clash between two teams sitting just outside the top 8 as the 10th placed South Sydney Rabbitohs travel to Netstrata Jubilee Stadium to take on the 11th placed St. George Illawarra Dragons. Last week both teams suffered agonising losses as they went down in games that they feel they could have won. For the Rabbitohs it was much the same story as their season so far with another loss to a top 8 team as they went down 18-12 to the Raiders. This loss was characterised by their inability to take control of the game despite winning the forward battle in terms of running metres as they failed to score a point in the second half of the game. On the other hand the Dragons will feel hard done by as they went down 28-24 to the Sharks despite a hugely controversial call from the bunker on one of the Sharks tries, a call that the NRL has openly admitted was wrong. Despite this the Dragons can hold their heads high with their 85% completion rate and only 18 missed tackles through the match. Unfortunately for the Dragons they lose a couple of key players as halfback Adam Clune & forward Trent Merrin are both out due to HIA protocols and are replaced by Ben Hunt & Jackson Ford as Cameron McInnes shifts to hooker. The Dragons can take confidence in the fact that origin forward Tariq Sims returns on the bench with Tyrell Fuimaono dropping off the bench as youngster Tristan Sailor also joins the pine and Jordan Pereira replaces Jason Saab on the wing. For the Rabbitohs they welcome back star fullback Latrell Mitchell as Alex Johnston shifts to the wing & Corey Allan drops out of the side as well as Liam Knight & Patrick Mago on the bench with Jack Johns & Hame Sele missing out. In recent history the Bunnies have dominated this contest in winning the last 4 against the Dragons and with a couple key outs for the Dragons as well as the return of Mitchell for Souths then we are leaning towards a 5th straight win for them. The Dragons should have enough about them to keep it relatively close although and with Souths winning 2 of their last 3 against the Dragons by 1-12 then we are leaning towards another tight victory for the Rabbitohs
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs 1-12 $2.80
Wests Tigers ($1.15) vs New Zealand Warriors ($5.50)
Friday, 31st July 6:00pm, Sydney Cricket Ground
Two teams coming off hard-fought losses in the Wests Tigers & the New Zealand Warriors clash at the Sydney Cricket Ground in the first of two Friday matches. Last week the Tigers put up a gallant performance in their 26-16 loss to the 2nd placed Eels and coach Michael Maguire will be proud of their effort after losing a couple of players to injury early on and having to withstand a bulk of possession from the Eels in the second half. Despite this they were unable to register a much needed win against a top 8 side and they will be desperate to get back on track as they take on a Warriors side who sit on a 3 game losing streak. To the Warriors credit their performance against the defending premiers last week was a huge improvement from their previous 2 losses. Leading 10-6 at halftime the Warriors went very close to an upset and if it wasn’t for a bit of Luke Keary magic then they may have just done so. Unfortunately for the Warriors this week they lose a few players who are returning to New Zealand to spend time with their family. These players include star wingers David Fusitua & Ken Maumalo who are replaced by Patrick Herbert & Eels loanee George Jennings on the wings. Their other Eels loan player, Daniel Alvaro, takes the place of Isaiah Papali’i on the bench as Wayde Egan also returns from injury to take Chanel Harris-Tavita’s bench spot. For the Tigers they welcome back two star forwards in Alex Twal & Luke Garner as Oliver Clark shifts to prop for the suspended Russell Packer, Michael Chee-Kam is out with a head knock, Sam McIntyre moves to the bench and Thomas Mikaele takes Matt Eisenhuth’s spot on the bench. In recent history the Tigers have dominated this contest in winning 5 of the last 6 between the two sides and have done so in convincing fashion. Across their last 5 victories against the Warriors they have scored 28 points or over in every win and they have an average winning margin of just over 18 points per match. With the Warriors losing a couple of key players this week and their abysmal 0-5 record on the road this year then we are leaning towards a dominant Tigers win.
Recommended Bet: Wests Tigers 13+ $1.82
Brisbane Broncos ($2.55) vs Cronulla Sharks ($1.52)
Friday, 31st July 7:55pm, Suncorp Stadium
Friday’s second game sees the 15th placed Brisbane Broncos take on a 7th placed Cronulla Sharks side who are on a two game winning streak and full of confidence after scoring 72 points across their last two meetings. This stat looks concerning for a Broncos side that has conceded 46 & 48 points in their last two outings and they will need to put together an 80 minute performance if they are to extend their winning streak of 6 consecutive wins against the Sharks, which dates back to 2017. This streak includes having not lost at Suncorp to the Sharks since 2014 but the Sharks will take confidence in their surprisingly strong away form of 4 wins & 2 losses from this year. The Sharks will also welcome back Josh Dugan for his 200th game as he takes Bryson Goodwin’s spot in the centres, Briton Nikora returns from suspension in the back row as Siosifa Talakai moves back to the bench, Toby Rudolf switches with Jack Williams from the bench to lock and halfback Chad Townsend is replaced by Connor Tracey due to a calf injury. Similarly the Broncos have a bulk of changes from last week's team, with a number of them forced changes due to injuries. Brodie Croft is replaced by Anthony Milford at five eight as Darius Boyd shifts back to fullback, Herbie Farnworth takes Boyd’s centre spot with Richie Kennar being the new face on the wing, Jake Turpin returns at hooker as Isaac Luke & Ethan Bullemor return on the bench for Corey Paix, Jamil Hopoate and Tyson Gamble. With the bulk of the changes for the Broncos it is hard to see how their already struggling defensive structures will benefit from so many new faces in one go. Add to that the fact the Sharks attack has been super impressive in averaging 25 points per game, currently 2nd best in the competition, then we are leaning towards what looks a relatively small Sharks line in this one.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks -5.5 $1.90
Sydney Roosters ($1.05) vs Gold Coast Titans ($10.00)
Saturday, 1st August 3:00pm, Sydney Cricket Ground
The defending premiers, the Sydney Roosters, survived an almighty scare last week as they trailed the 13th placed Warriors by 4 points at halftime only to just secure victory and they will be looking for a much improved performance this week as they take on the 14th placed Gold Coast Titans. In this victory the Roosters uncharacteristically dropped the ball when in commanding positions and failed to take control of a game that many expected them to win by much more. To their credit they were still able to find a way to win and they will be hoping to continue their winning ways against the Titans, a team they have not lost to since 2016. The Titans will also be hoping that they can continue with a similar level of effort as they had in their 22-14 loss to the ladder leaders the Panthers. In this loss the Titans will take confidence in the fact that they had to endure 13 more sets than the Panthers in defence and were still able to keep the 4th best attacking team to only 22 points. This week sees minimal changes for both sides. For the Titans they regain Keegan Hipgrave & Sam Lisone as they replace Sam Stone & Jai Whitbread respectively. For the Roosters they lose Brett Morris to a back injury as he is replaced by Ryan Hall on the wing. When looking more in depth at the history between these two sides it was a surprise to see that, bar their only meeting last year, the Titans have managed to keep these games relatively close. In fact in 4 of the last 5 meetings that the Roosters have won the Titans have been able to cover the line that is set for this week's game. With the Roosters seemingly going through a minor transition phase as they become used to playing without a number of key players then we are leaning towards the Titans to cover the line in this week's meeting.
Recommended Bet: Gold Coast Titans +21.5 $1.90
North Queensland Cowboys ($3.15) vs Canberra Raiders ($1.36)
Saturday, 1st August 5:30pm, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Two teams in quite polarising form clash in Saturday’s second game as the North Queensland Cowboys welcome the Canberra Raiders to Queensland Country Bank Stadium. For the Cowboys they now sit with the worst losing streak in the competition as they lost their fourth in a row last week to the Sea Eagles in going down 24 points to 12. New Cowboys coach Josh Hannay was proud of his team's effort and resilience after going down 12-0 early on but he will be ruing the 12 errors they made and the 33 missed tackles in a game where they had their fair share of chances. On the other hand the Raiders continue to find a way to win despite their mammoth injury list as they downed the previously top 8 Rabbitohs side 18-12. This win was largely on the back of another masterclass from Jack Wighton as he put on 2 try assists and they will be leaning on him again this week as fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad becomes the newest Raiders member to be out with injury. As a result Jordan Rapana shifts to fullback with Curtis Scott coming into the centres & Nick Cotric moves out to the wing. Thankfully for the Raiders they also welcome back some big names in their forward pack with John Bateman returning in the second row as Hudson Young moves to lock and Kai O’Donnell reverts to the bench whilst Corey Harawira-Naera comes straight into the 17 to make his club debut as Harley Smith-Shields is the unlucky man to miss out. For the Cowboys they welcome back captain Jordan McLean into the front row as well as Connelly Lemuelu in the centres as Mitch Dunn & Francis Molo drop to the bench and Ben Hampton & Reuben Cotter drop out of the side. In recent history the Raiders have come out on top against the Cowboys with 3 wins from the last 4, including the last 2 wins up in Townsville. With the Cowboys still lacking leadership in their spine and the Raiders also lacking a couple of key attacking players in their spine then we are leaning towards a potentially low scoring clash between the two sides. Add to the fact that both teams are averaging below 20 points per game in attack this season and that they have been in close, low scoring games in recent weeks then we are happy to look at the unders for this one.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 41.5 $1.88
Manly Sea Eagles ($2.45) vs Penrith Panthers ($1.55)
Saturday, 1st August 7:35pm, Lottoland
One of two huge clashes between top 8 sides is brought to us on Saturday night as the resilient Manly Sea Eagles take on the top of the table Penrith Panthers at Lottoland. The Panthers have been the most impressive team over recent weeks as they have strung together 6 consecutive wins and remain alone at the top of the table. Last week their streak continued by defeating the Titans 22-14 despite missing a host of big name players as they showed their depth and character in what was their first game away on the road. Similarly, the Sea Eagles have overcome a massive injury list to secure 2 consecutive wins as they have reentered the top 8 after momentarily dropping out of it. Last week they triumphed over the Cowboys by 24 points to 12 on the back of an impressive showing from young Cade Cust and the experienced Daly Cherry-Evans and they will be looking to cause a major upset by breaking the Panthers 2020 winning streak and their 2 game winning streak against them from the last two years. If the Sea Eagles are to break this streak then they will be sweating on the fitness of five eight Dylan Walker as he is named on the extended bench for this week's clash. The only other change that the Sea Eagles have made has been Sean Keppie taking Jack Gosiewski’s place on the bench. For the Panthers star back rower Viliame Kikau returns as Tyrone May moves back to the bench & Matt Burton drops out of the side whilst hooker Api Koroisau is named on the extended bench as he looks to return from an elbow injury. With both teams priding themselves on their defence this year, averaging 14 & 17 points conceded per game, then we are leaning towards another low scoring affair between the two sides. To add to this is the fact that in 3 of the last 4 meetings between the sides it has gone under this week's line and with that in mind the unders looks the play in this one.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 36.5 $1.88
Canterbury Bulldogs ($6.00) vs Parramatta Eels ($1.13)
Sunday, 2nd August 2:00pm, ANZ Stadium
Sunday’s first game sees a huge Western Sydney derby between the 16th placed Canterbury Bulldogs and the 2nd placed Parramatta Eels in what is the first game at ANZ Stadium since the competition restart. Both teams are coming off wins too and will be looking to gain some momentum as we enter the back half of the season in what is the second time that these two sides have met in 2020. The first time was back in round 1, the season opener, in what was a rusty game for both sides where the Eels ran out 8-2 winners, a win that cemented their 3rd win from their last 4 matches against the Dogs. This time round the Dogs are coming off an upset 18-12 win against the Knights that was on the back of a 91% completion rate and a much more controlled performance than what we’ve seen from the Dogs so far this year. For the Eels they will come off a 10 day turnaround after their 26-16 win against the Tigers, a game that was dominated by their forwards as their starting front row pair combined for a huge 465 metres. This week sees the Eels go from strength to strength too, with two big bench forwards in Kane Evans & Oregon Kaufusi returning in the place of Brad Takairangi and Stefano Utoikamanu. For the Bulldogs mid-season recruit Tim Lafai will come into the centres in place of Kerrod Holland as well as Jack Cogger & Sauaso Sue joining the interchange in the place of Brandon Wakeham and Renouf To’omaga. Despite the Eels holding a dominant record against the Bulldogs the nature of their games have traditionally been relatively close. With only one game out of their last five being won by a margin of more than 8 then the Bulldogs line for this one looks quite large and with their return to ANZ Stadium as well as their spirited performance this week then we will take them with the line for this one.
Recommended Bet: Canterbury Bulldogs +16.5 $1.90
Melbourne Storm ($1.18) vs Newcastle Knights ($4.85)
Sunday, 2nd August 4:05pm, Sunshine Coast Stadium
The final game of the round sees the high flying Melbourne Storm take on the struggling Newcastle Knights in what is a huge match for both sides top four and top eight aspirations. The Storm have been quietly flying under the radar in recent weeks as they have won their last five and find themselves sitting in second place. Last week they dismantled a struggling Broncos side in the second half in a 46-8 demolition job where Cameron Smith turned back the clock to prove why he is considered one of the best players of all time. On the other hand the Knights were shocked by the last placed Bulldogs in a 18-12 loss where they lost both starting hooker Andrew McCullough and bench utility Connor Watson to serious injuries. These injuries leave a serious hole in the Knights middle third and they will be up against it as the Storm already boast a 26-12 win against them from round 5 of this year, which was their 8th consecutive win against the Knights. On the back of these injuries the Knights have been forced into recalling Chris Randall at hooker for his second NRL game whilst they also lose Sione Mata’utai to injury as Aidan Guerra starts in the back row and Josh King & Phoenix Crossland join the bench. For the Storm they will be without a couple of backs due to injuries as Brenko Lee is replaced in the centres by Marion Seve and Paul Momirovski is replaced on the bench by Tom Eisenhuth. As we mentioned before the Storm have quite a record against the Knights and it’s hard to see anything but a Storm victory in this one with the weight of injuries that the Knights have. To add some extra value the Storm have covered this week's line in each of their last 6 victories against the Knights and we are confident that they can do so against an understrength Knights side.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm -12.5 $1.90
