NRL Round 4 Preview
A tough first round back saw four teams keep their undefeated status, whilst another four teams remained without a win and a number of teams looked to find their feet with some impressive performances. Read on as we preview the round 4 matchups, which are spread across 5 days with the reintroduction of Monday night football and analyse the chances of each team in respect to the betting market.
Brisbane Broncos ($3.50) vs Sydney Roosters ($1.31)
Thursday, 4th June 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium
Brisbane’s second game in a row at Suncorp Stadium sees them welcome the Sydney Roosters as they hope for a much improved performance from last week’s embarrassing loss to the Eels. This loss saw the Broncos lose their first game of the season as they were humiliated 34-6 on the back of the Eels running for a whopping 2316 metres in comparison to the Broncos 1309 metres, a stat highlighting their seriously depleted forward pack. On the other hand the Roosters notched their first win of the season as they put in a clinical performance to down archrivals the Rabbitohs by 28 points to 12. The Roosters will be hoping that this win provides the platform for their 2nd successive premiership defence as well as giving them the confidence to knock off a Suncorp Stadium hoodoo that has been hanging over their heads for almost 6 years. Since 2014 the Roosters have failed to win a game against Brisbane in Brisbane as they have fallen to 6 losses in that period. The Broncos will be using this as confidence but they will still be against the odds with Kotoni Staggs & Alex Glenn joining David Fifita & Tevita Pangai-Junior on the sidelines as youngsters Herbie Farnworth and Ethan Bullemor come into the side. On the other hand the Roosters have named an unchanged 17 from last week but will have to sweat on the result of Victor Radley’s judiciary and the fitness of Mitch Aubosson and Siosiua Taukeiaho who are on the extended bench. Despite the Broncos impressive record against the Roosters in Brisbane their loss last week highlighted their lack of forward power and experience, two areas which the Roosters are rich in, and for that reason we are predicting a comfortable Roosters win to break their 6 year hoodoo.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters -8.5 $1.85
Penrith Panthers ($1.45) vs New Zealand Warriors ($2.75)
Friday, 5th June 6:00pm, Campbelltown Stadium
Everyone’s second favourite team in the New Zealand Warriors, fresh off notching up their first win of 2020, take on the Penrith Panthers at their makeshift home of Campbelltown Stadium in Friday nights 6:00pm game. Arguably the feelgood story of round 3 was the Warriors putting together a near perfect performance in completing 46 of a possible 48 sets on their way to an 18-0 victory over the Dragons. This sort of efficiency from the Warriors is something that their fans have been striving for for countless years and they will need to channel every bit of it again this week as they look to hand the Panthers their first loss of 2020. For the Panthers they will be hoping for an 80 minute performance this week as they squandered a 14-0 lead and a number of field goal opportunities to draw 14 all with an injury depleted Knights side at the end of extra time. Coach Ivan Cleary will be rueing their missed chances and will be hoping that they can add to their 5 wins from their last 7 meetings against the Warriors from 2017. This week sees the Panthers make one change with Liam Martin replacing Billy Burns on the bench as Nathan Cleary is still suspended. For the Warriors they have been forced into two changes with Peta Hiku and Agnatius Paasi missing out due to injury and suspension respectively with Karl Lawton and Roosters loan signing Poasa Faamausili taking their places. With the Panthers unconvincing performance and the Warriors much improved performance from last week we have decided to look towards the total points market. In the last 7 meetings between the sides they have met the total points line in 6 of these times, with the only time they missed being by 0.5 of a point. Add this to the number of botched chances in attack from both sides last week and we’re confident in the overs this week.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 37.5 Points $1.87
Melbourne Storm ($1.40) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs ($3.00)
Friday, 5th June 7:55pm, AAMI Park
Possibly one of the most intriguing matchups of the round sees two heavyweight sides coming off disappointing losses in the Melbourne Storm and the South Sydney Rabbitohs meet at AAMI Park in Friday’s second game. Both coaches were furious after last week's losses as the Storm slumped to their 3rd successive defeat to the Raiders at AAMI Park whilst the Rabbitohs lost their second consecutive game to archrivals the Roosters. Of more concern for both coaches were the manners of both defeats. The Storm uncharacteristically completed at 68%, scored only 6 points and made 14 errors including a number of dropped balls & pushed passes at critical points of the match. For the Rabbitohs they were simply outclassed by the Roosters whose experience showed as they lost the battle in the halves and were unable to capitalise on their chances despite having more possession of the ball, albeit in their own half. To make matters worse this week for the Rabbitohs the Storm are one of the sides that they haven’t been able to get a handle on over recent years. Despite a 30-20 win over them at ANZ Stadium in 2018 they haven’t beaten the Storm since 2013 and haven’t won at AAMI park in over 10 years. To break this Wayne Bennett will be hoping that his forwards can outmuscle a Storm side that will be without representative star Nelson Asofa-Solomona who is replaced by Christian Welch in the starting pack and halfback Ryley Jacks comes onto the bench. On the other hand Bennett has made only one change of his own with Patrick Mago joining the bench in the place of Tom Amone as Cody Walker is still suspended and James Roberts is on the extended bench. With these outs it’s hard to see the South’s turning around their performance at a ground that they have a terrible history at and we’re leaning towards the Storm, albeit in a close one. The reasoning behind this is based on 6 of the Storm’s last 7 wins against the Rabbitohs being by 10 points or less so we feel there’s a bit of extra value at them 1-12.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 1-12 $2.70
Parramatta Eels ($1.67) vs Manly Sea Eagles ($2.20)
Saturday, 6th June 5:30pm, Bankwest Stadium
Without a doubt the game that I’m looking forward to the most this round is the clash of the top of the table Parramatta Eels against their Sydney rivals the Manly Sea Eagles at Bankwest Stadium. Both teams are coming off resounding performances as the Eels dismantled the previously undefeated Broncos by 28 points away from home in Brisbane whilst the Sea Eagles downed the Bulldogs by 26 points at home. So far the Eels have looked almost unstoppable with their forwards providing the platform for what is an incredibly slick backline but in the Sea Eagles they come up against a team that has conceded just over 10 points per game so far and boasts an equally impressive forward pack. Unsurprisingly, both teams are also unchanged from their round 3 wins as they look to announce themselves as one of the competition heavyweights with victory. In recent history between the two sides they have been relatively even with 2 wins a piece from their last 4 matches. Interestingly, of these last 4 meetings the lowest winning teams score was 32 points and the average points per game between both sides sits at a whopping 54 points. To add this to the fact that both teams scored 34 and 32 points last round we were quite surprised to see that the total points line was a mere 40.5 points and for that reason we are quite confidently looking at the overs for this game.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 40.5 Points $1.90
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.67) vs Cronulla Sharks ($2.20)
Saturday, 6th June 7:35pm, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Saturday’s prime time game sees the Cronulla Sharks travel up to Townsville to take on the North Queensland Cowboys as they search for their first win for season 2020. For the second consecutive time the Sharks squandered a half time lead as the Tigers ran out 28-16 winners, with the Sharks failing to score a single point in the second half amidst missing a whopping 54 tackles. On the other hand the Cowboys looked to have found their mojo in attack as they completed a 36-6 trouncing of the Titans on the back of an inspiring performance from former Sharks player Valentine Holmes who led the way with 3 try assists and 12 points. Thankfully for the Sharks they will take confidence in their current 3 match winning streak against the Cowboys but they will have to do without Chad Townsend who misses due to a hamstring injury and is replaced by Matt Moylan whilst halfback Connor Tracey comes onto the bench along with Siosifa Talakai in place of Billy Magouilas. The big news for the Cowboys is that star forward Jason Taumalolo is out due to bone bruising on his knee and is replaced by Josh McGuire at lock, with Francis Molo starting at prop and Gavin Cooper & Tom Gilbert joining the bench, the latter making his debut. This news seemed to shake the market as the Sharks were winded in as a result and sit narrow outsiders at the time of writing. Without Taumalolo it takes away a lot of confidence in the Cowboys and for this reason we are looking a little outside the box, with not much value elsewhere in the market, by going for a Sharks lead at halftime and Cowboys at full time. Now hear us out before you skip to the next game as the Sharks have already squandered two half time leads this season and average just over 5 points in the second half in comparison to the Cowboys 12 points in 2020. More interestingly these two teams have a history of second half comebacks with the leading team at halftime going onto lose in 3 of their last 5 encounters and with this in mind hopefully we’ve found a bit of value for you on your Saturday night.
Recommended Bet: Half Time/Full Time: Cronulla Sharks/North Queensland Cowboys $7.00
Canberra Raiders ($1.38) vs Newcastle Knights ($3.10)
Sunday, 7th June 4:05pm, Campbelltown Stadium
Sunday’s first game sees second play third as two undefeated teams in the Canberra Raiders and the Newcastle Knights come together at Campbelltown Stadium. Both sides have been equally impressive across the opening 3 rounds of the season but it was the Raiders who put in arguably the performance of the season in knocking off the Storm by 22 points to 6 away from home last round. Not to go astray though was the Knights performance who despite missing Kalyn Ponga & Lachlan Fitzgibbon and losing Mitchell Pearce & Connor Watson to injury within the first 10 minutes were able to come from 14-0 down to draw 14 all with the Panthers at the end of extratime. Thankfully for the Knights Pearce has escaped serious injury and Kalynn Ponga returns whilst Andrew McCullough makes his club debut at hooker as Watson’s injury sees him out for 6-8 weeks. For the Raiders they have made just the one change with Bailey Simonnson returning on the wing as Jordan Rapana moves to the bench and Michael Oldfield drops out of the 17. When looking at the history of these teams over the last 3 years they have played 4 times with the spoils being shared at 2 wins a piece. It’s pretty hard to go past the Raiders form at the moment but the Knights will take plenty of confidence from their last round and we think they’ve got enough about them to make this a close contest that will go narrowly the way of the Raiders. With the last 2 meetings between the sides being decided by 7 points or less we are predicting a narrow Raiders win in what should be an interesting contest.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders 1-12 $2.80
Gold Coast Titans ($3.00) vs Wests Tigers ($1.40)
Sunday, 7th June 6:30pm, Suncorp Stadium
The penultimate game of the round sees the winless Gold Coast Titans welcome the Wests Tigers to Suncorp Stadium in what looks a potentially one sided contest unless there are some drastic changes at the Titans. So far the Titans have been disappointing under new coach Justin Holbrook as they have averaged just 6 points per game in attack whilst leaking just over 35 points per game in the same period. Holbrook will be hoping that the dropping of former origin players Nathan Peats & Jarrod Wallace as well as Jai Whitbred and Jonus Pearson will be the sort of drastic change that the Titans require. In their places Tyrone Roberts, Erin Clark, Tanah Boyd, Jaimin Joliffe, Bryce Cartwright and Young Tonumaipea all join the 17. On the other hand the Tigers have found no need to change a side who came from 16-10 down at halftime to run out 28-16 winners over the Sharks led by Luke Brooks and new signing Harry Grant, who was very impressive at hooker. For the Titans they will take confidence that the Tigers are one side who they have had okay form against as they have won 5 of their last 7 meetings against them, although they lost their most recent meeting in 2019. Despite this form it’s hard to lean towards a Titans side that has 6 new players in their side and have lost by an average of just over 29 points per game in 2020. With this statistic in mind as well as the Tigers last two wins against the Titans being by 16 & 22 points, then the Tigers line looks a great play this week and we are happy to go with that with quite a bit of confidence.
Recommended Bet: Wests Tigers -6.5 $1.90
Canterbury Bulldogs ($1.90) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.90)
Monday, 8th June, 4:05pm, Bankwest Stadium
The first Monday game for the season sees two teams currently without a win in the Canterbury Bulldogs and the St. George Illawarra Dragons clash at Bankwest Stadium. Both teams will be feeling the pressure coming into their round 4 meeting after coming off humiliating losses where the Bulldogs managed just 6 points in a 26 point loss to the Sea Eagles whilst the Dragons lost 18-0 to an injury depleted Warriors. To make matters worse for the Dragons is the fact that they have won just 2 of their last 13 games and with those two wins coming against a Gold Coast side that haven’t won in almost a full calendar year then you can bet that the pressure is mounting on coach Paul McGregor. For the Bulldogs their resurgent end of season form from 2019 is a thing of the distant past as they are averaging just 8 points per game throughout 2020 with a young and inexperienced halves combination. To make matters worse is the fact that the Dragons beat them by a combined total of 60 points in their two meetings from last year and Bulldogs coach Dean Pay will be hoping that the return of Kieran Foran, in place of the young Jack Cogger, will reignite their attack. For the Dragons McGregor has moved Corey Norman to fullback with Matt Dufty dropping to reserves, Ben Hunt moves to five eight as Adam Clune comes into halfback to make his debut whilst Josh Kerr comes into the starting pack and Trent Merrin, Korbin Sims and Isaac Luke join the bench. Despite the Dragons abysmal performance the week before we are going to give them one more chance here on the basis of their dominant performances against the Bulldogs from last year and we are happy to take them with the line.
Recommended Bet: St. George Illawarra Dragons -1.5 $2.00
