COX PLATE 2019 PREVIEW
MOONEE VALLEY RACE 9 – 16:55 AEDT
OPEN G1
2040m
$5,000,000
GOOD 4
Rail TRUE entire
| # | Form | Horse | Trainer | Jockey (barrier) | Weight (kg) | Current Price |
| 1 | x8012 | BLACK HEART BART | L SMITH | B RAWILLER (11) | 59.0 | $27 |
| 2 | x4214 | AVILIUS | JAMES CUMMINGS | K MCEVOY (7) | 59.0 | $13 |
| 3 | 42x8x | KLUGER | T TAKANO | TOMMY BERRY (9) | 59.0 | $20 |
| 4 | x0063 | HARLEM | D & B HAYES & T DABERNIG | D DUNN (2) | 59.0 | $46 |
| 5 | 2x126 | HOMESMAN | LIAM HOWLEY | B MELHAM (16) | 59.0 | $23 |
| 6 | 0x581 | KINGS WILL DREAM | C WALLER | H BOWMAN (17) | 59.0 | $21 |
| 7 | 1x222 | TE AKAU SHARK | JAMIE RICHARDS | O P BOSSON (18) | 59.0 | $17 |
| 8 | 3141x | DANCETERIA | D MENUISIER | J P SPENCER (10) | 59.0 | $20 |
| 9 | x231x | LYS GRACIEUX | Y YAHAGI | D LANE (15) | 57.0 | $3.80 |
| 10 | 22022 | MAGIC WAND | A O'BRIEN | R L MOORE (3) | 57.0 | $15 |
| 11 | 083x1 | CAPE OF GOOD HOPE | D & B HAYES & T DABERNIG | M ZAHRA (8) | 56.5 | $15 |
| 12 | 1x125 | MYSTIC JOURNEY | ADAM TRINDER | A DARMANIN (6) | 55.5 | $7 |
| 13 | 1x941 | VERRY ELLEEGANT | C WALLER | J B MC DONALD (5) | 55.5 | $18 |
| 14 | 1x472 | CASTELVECCHIO | RICHARD LITT | C WILLIAMS (4) | 49.5 | $8 |
| 15 | x0005 | HUMIDOR | C MAHER & D EUSTACE | B SHINN (14) | 59.0 | $34 |
| 16 | 1x300 | MR QUICKIE | P STOKES | G BOSS (12) | 57.5 | $23 |
| 17 | 2x037 | GAILO CHOP | M WILLIAMS | D OLIVER (1) | 59.0 | $61 |
| 18 | 050x9 | DREAM CASTLE | S SUROOR | P J COSGRAVE (13) | 59.0 | $126 |
OVERVIEW
Sometimes dubbed the greatest 2 minutes in Australian sport, the $5 million Cox Plate looks set to again draw crowds, despite the absence of Winx (who won this race the past four years) this year. Not long ago, Mystic Journey was a red-hot favourite for this race but now after suffering two consecutive losses, the race is wide open. Japanese raider Lys Gracieux will likely jump the favourite after winning a big Group 1 in Japan in dominant fashion.
SPEED MAP
There doesn’t seem to be much speed in this race outside of Gailo Chop, who should lead them along easily from barrier 1. Homesman will also likely contest the lead from a wider barrier. The rest of the field will jostle for position and it looks like this will be the key to the race. Expecting runners to come 5-6 wide in the straight as they try to break clear from the muddling speed.
KEY RUNNERS
- BLACK HEART BART ($26)
Wound back the clock to win the Group 1 Underwood Stakes in a massive boilover. Proved last start in the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes that the run wasn’t a fluke, hitting the front near the 100m before being run down by Cape of Good Hope on the line. The 9-year-old is back in business and looks a live chance here.
- AVILIUS ($13)
Was well fancied last start (jumped $2.05F) in the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes but laid in during the straight after being forced to make a wide, sustained run. Prior to that, scored a brilliant victory in the Group 1 George Main Stakes when he was last on the turn before putting in his customary sprint to score easily by 2.3L. Can hit back from last start here.
- LYS GRACIEUX ($3.80)
Always hard to know how the overseas runners will fare but as a form reference, however Lys Gracieux easily defeated Kluger (who also lines up here), when they clashed in Japan. Kluger ran Winx to 1.5L when they met in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. More recently, Lys Gracieux defeated Kiseki by 3L in a big Group 1 race in Japan, which is very strong form for this. Looks a deserved favourite.
- MYSTIC JOURNEY ($7)
Less than two months ago, if someone had offered you $7 for Mystic Journey to win the Cox Plate you would have begged, borrowed and stole to get on. Things have changed drastically however, with the talented runner suffering two defeats in her past two starts. Her two defeats have had merit however, and with the right run here, she is more than capable of taking this race out.
BLUEY’S PICK
- AVILIUS ($13)
This race looks like a dart board job, with any number of horses having the talent to score here. Lys Gracieux brings some very strong Japanese form but it’s always hard to know how they will fare when coming to Australia. I’m giving Avilius a chance to bounce-back after a torrid run in transit last start. He draws a nice barrier here and with the right run can win this.
