West Coast Eagles vs Essendon Bombers
September 5th (Thursday 6.10pm) Optus Stadium
The finals kicks off in the wild west for a mouth watering clash between two old rivals. Kevin Sheedy famously waved his jacket in celebration when the Bombers beat the Eagles in a final and the Eagle fans have not forgotten. This time around though it is an Eagles great that could become villain on Thursday night with John Worsfold coaching against his old side. The Bombers have snuck into the eight after having an up and down year where they looked like a top 4 side one week then a bottom 4 side the week after. The bye last week has been good to the Bombers as they were able to rest a few of their stars in Heppell, Fantazia, Stringer and Hurley. Michael Hurley badly hurt his shoulder two weeks ago against the Pies and will have a tough task this week up against Darling and Kennedy. The Eagles welcome back their biggest weapon in Nic Naitanui who has recovered from his foot problem and it could be the Eagles secret weapon as he could explode on Thursday night and get the Eagles over the line. The Eagles have lost their last two games and that cost them a top 4 spot but I believe they are the only team that can win the comp from outside the top 4. Key match ups on Thursday that will decide this game. Brad Sheppard on Anthony Tipungwuti could be vital for an Eagles win; if Tipungwuti kicks goals the Bombers usually win. Hurley on Kennedy - if Hurley stops Kennedy the Bombers will back themselves in. The Dons mids vs the Eagles mids - two elite midfields that will decide this game. It is going to be a cracker on Thursday night tipping the Eagles in a close one.
H2H
Eagles have won three of the past five games versus the Dons. The Eagles have never beaten the Bombers in a final. Last time they played in a final was 2002 Bombers won by 35 points.
Best Bet
Bombers +28.5 $1.90
Geelong Cats vs Collingwood Magpies
September 6th (Friday 7.50pm) MCG
The much talked about Friday night fixture. The Cats coach Chris Scott for weeks has labelled this fixture unfair due to his side finishing above Collingwood and having to play their home final at the MCG. The rules have been there since day dot so move on Chris and worry about a final. The Pies welcome back De Goey, Stephenson and Sidebottom who are all match winners and can turn this game on its head. The Cats all week had to deny rumours that Tim Kelly has chosen the Eagles for his intended destination when trade period starts. Not a great way to go into a final knowing your star player is talking to other clubs about a potential trade. This game will be won in the middle and in my eyes I can’t see the Cats stopping Brodie Grundy a freak around the ground much like Dean Cox at his prime. If the Cats have any chance of winning this game they need to stop Grundy as he is a running machine. Scott Pendlebury's 300th game will get the Pies up and about as well. He is a champion and has more time then the early settlers; a lot of the Pies run and carry goes through him so a tag might be the way to go for the Cats. Dangerfield, Selwood, Ablett and Kelly are the engine room for the Cats and if they get on top of the Pies midfield expect Tom Hawkins to be kicking a bag. This game is going to be tough and gritty from the opening bounce but I think with the Pies going so close last year they will be more hungry. Pies in a close one for me
H2H
Geelong have won three of the past five matches vs the Pies
Best Bet
Pies win $2.05
Pies +4.5 $1.90
GWS Giants vs Western Bulldogs
September 7th (Saturday 3.20pm) Giants
These two sides played three weeks ago with the Bulldogs smashing the Giants by 60 points and not letting them score a goal after half time. That will change this weekend the Giants rested their stars last weekend and they will be hungry and ready to go. Toby Greene is back along with Deledio while Tomlinson has been dropped (he might be on the move to another club). The Giants have been up and down all year but a home final and the memories from 2016 this side will respond. The Dogs on the other hand have come from the clouds to be likened to their 2016 season where they finished 7th and went on to win the Grand Final. Their stars are playing great footy and we can expect them to bring a lot of pressure and hunger in this game. Unlike the Pies and Cats game this match will be won in defence. Both sides set up their attack from defence the running power of Williams and Whitfield from defence can open up the Dogs on the counter but then the Dogs have the kicking specialist in Matt Suckling who can kick 60m without even trying to open up the Giants defence. It is going to be hot in the kitchen early in this one but I think the class of the Giants will get them over the line. Giants by 20+
H2H
Giants have won three of the past 5 games vs the Dogs
Best Bet
GWS win $2.00
GWS +2.5 1.90
Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers
September 7th (Friday 7.25pm) Gabba
These two sides played in round 23 and the Tigers got the chocolates, they were unstoppable that game and showed why they are flag favs. The Lions are the fairytale story of season 2019 and get that valuable home final and will want to cement themselves early in this game calm the nerves as it is a lot of their players first ever final. Charlie Cameron was held last time these two sides played but expect him to fire up this game and try to make a stand against grimes who wore him like a glove in round 23. The Tigers mids led by Martin, Prestia and Cotchin will try and bully the Lions early as the pressure will be on but if the Lions can match them with their intensity they will get on top. Home ground is a massive thing in finals football and the Gabba will be loud. Tom Lynch plays his first final and ironic it’s in the state where he started his AFL career. Christensen is back for the Lions and Nankervis is back for the Tigers. Lions have gone with a speed side while the Tigers have gone with a medium to tall size to try and open the Lions on the counter. This game is going to be awfully close and I expect the Lions to get over the Lion in a game that could set them up with a Grand Final finish. What a run they’ve been on and the fairytale will continue.
H2H
Tigers have won the last five games vs the Lions
Best Bet
Lions win $2.20
Lions +5.5 $1.90
