NRL Round 25 Preview
The final round of the 2019 NRL regular season is upon us and with a tight battle for both the top four and the top eight still alive as well as a Sydney derby there are plenty of reasons to tune in to the final game for many teams. Read on as we cast our eye over what’s at stake for each team and how we think each team will perform.
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($2.40) vs Sydney Roosters ($1.58)
Thursday, 5th September 7:50pm, ANZ Stadium
What a way to start the round with not only second versus fourth but also the eastern Sydney derby as the South Sydney Rabbitohs taken on arch-rivals the Sydney Roosters with a spot in the top four on the line. Both teams will be eager to finish their regular season on a high as the Roosters look to extend their winning streak to 8 as well as avenging their 26-16 loss to the Rabbitohs from round 1 of this year whilst the Rabbitohs will be hoping to hold off Manly from stealing their spot in the top four. For the Rabbitohs to do this they must win or not lose by a large margin as the Sea Eagles sit 1 win and 32 points behind them on the ladder. As a result coach Wayne Bennett has only made the one change to his side from last weeks 31-10 win over the Warriors with Kyle Turner out with a quadricep injury and is replaced by Tom Amone on the bench. On the other hand the Roosters have two big inclusions with Cooper Cronk named to return from an eye injury in the halves as well as Boyd Cordner returning to the starting side for the first time in over a month as Angus Crichton reverts to the bench. These inclusions spell concern for the Rabbitohs who despite improving over recent weeks are still not performing in the same vein of form that saw them dominate the Roosters forwards in their last meeting. To add to the Rabbitohs concern is the fact that the Roosters haven’t lost 2 in a row to the Rabbitohs since 2016, which was the last time they missed the finals, and with this in mind we are tipping the Roosters to get one back on their arch rivals and extend their winning streak to 8 with finals just around the corner.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 1-12 $2.85
Parramatta Eels ($1.55) vs Manly Sea Eagles ($2.45)
Friday, 6th September 6:00pm, Bankwest Stadium
A finals warm up for both the 5th placed Manly Sea Eagles and 6th placed Parramatta Eels who are assured of their spots in the finals and will be desperate to avenge their respective one and two loss streaks from recent weeks. For the Eels this is particularly important as they have gone down to two teams below them in the Broncos and the Bulldogs and their attack has struggled to find it’s feet as they have managed just 22 points across the last 2 weeks. On the other hand the Sea Eagles were flying high after a big win against the Raiders but were struck down by injury as Tom Trbojevic, Morgan Boyle and Jack Gosiewski all went down in a 36-6 loss to ladder leaders the Melbourne Storm. As a result the Sea Eagles have been forced into a major reshuffle with Brendan Elliot coming in at fullback for Trbojevic, Corey Waddell moves into Gosiewski’s starting spot and Lloyd Perret and debutant Sean Keppie come onto the bench. Likewise, the Eels have also had a personnel shuffle with Tepai Moeroa and Ray Stone being recalled to the bench in place of Peni Terepo and David Gower whilst Marata Niukore moves into the starting lock position in place of Daniel Alvaro, who joins the bench. The last time these two teams met it was an absolute shootout with Manly running out 36-24 victors at Lottoland but this game will be a different story as the Eels will be desperate not to lose consecutive home games at Bankwest Stadium for the first time in the stadiums history. We are confident that the Eels can ensure this doesn’t happen but we also believe there is value in the total points market for this weeks game. In their last 3 meetings there has been an average of 56 points between the two sides and with the total points line set well below this we are predicting another high scoring affair, despite the recent offensive concerns of both sides.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 38.5 $1.88
Melbourne Storm ($1.13) vs North Queensland Cowboys ($5.90)
Friday, 6th September 7:50pm, AAMI Park
Melbourne Storm have blown away almost everything in front of them this year as they have wrapped up the minor premiership and currently stand to better a record that has stood since 1963 with a win against the North Queensland Cowboys in the Friday night prime time game. This record is the total sum of their losses in a season, which currently sits at 8 points across their four losses, and is better than the 10 points set by the Dragons 46 years ago. If the Storm are to better this record it will go down as one of the greatest seasons in history, after many pundits wrote them off at the start of the year, and if their 36-6 win last week over the 5th placed Sea Eagles is anything to go by then the Cowboys will have a tough battle on their hands. For the Cowboys they will be hoping to finish their season off on a high as they have won their last 2 games thanks to an all round improved defensive effort. As a result of this the only change the Cowboys have made has been the inclusion of representative forward Josh McGuire from a 3 week suspension who takes the place of handy utility Reuben Cotter. On the other hand, the Storm have made a number of changes with the minor premiership all sewn up and they have rested Cameron Munster, Josh Addo-Carr and Brandon Smith who are replaced by Brodie Croft, Sandor Earl and Tui Kamikamica. Despite these changes for the Storm they will still be confident in beating a side who they currently boast the last 9 victories over and with the Cowboys last victory at AAMI Park coming in 2015 in a preliminary final before they won the grand final we are leaning towards a Storm victory, albeit in a closer margin than what the market suggests.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 1-12 $3.15
Canberra Raiders ($1.28) vs New Zealand Warriors ($3.75)
Saturday, 7th September 3:00pm, GIO Stadium
The Canberra Raiders bounced back in clinical fashion last week as they knocked off the 8th placed Cronulla Sharks in golden point to solidify their spot in the top four. This week they come up against the New Zealand Warriors, a side they knocked off by 34 points in round 20, who will be desperate to not only avenge this loss but also stop a concerning 3 game losing streak that has seen them fall from the brink of the top 8 to 14th on the ladder. Amongst these losses the Warriors defence has gone out the window as they have conceded 115 points at an average of 38 points and under pressure coach Stephen Kearney will be hoping for a much improved effort to finish off the season. To do this he has named a new centre pairing in Adam Pompey and Blake Ayshford whilst Bunty Afoa and Adam Keighran also join the bench. For the Raiders, coach Ricky Stuart has eared on the side of caution with his side practically guaranteed of a spot in the top four and has rested Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Jordan Rapana, Iosia Soliola and John Bateman for this weeks clash. This means that Bailey Simonsson moves to fullback, Michael Oldfield comes onto the wing, Hudson Young starts and Emre Guler & JJ Collins come onto the bench. Despite these changes the Raiders still look the much stronger side and with their impressive record of 5 wins from their last 7 against the Warriors as well as the motivation to not lose 3 in a row at home for the first time all year we are predicting a comfortable Raiders victory.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders 13+ $2.10
Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.45) vs Brisbane Broncos ($1.55)
Saturday, 7th September 5:30pm, ANZ Stadium
With the Canterbury Bulldogs season officially over after their heartbreaking 15-8 loss to the Cowboys last week it will be interesting to see the level of motivation behind this side as they take on the 7th placed Brisbane Broncos, who are assured of a spot in the finals with their 1 point victory over the Eels. In this win the Broncos silenced a lot of critics by withstanding 5 more sets from the Eels and holding their nerve to win a game that many had tipped the Eels to win. This week coach Anthony Seibold will be hoping for more of the same and will be delighted to recall impressive makeshift halfback Jake Turpin in place of Sean O’Sullivan as well as replacing Gehamat Shibasaki with Izaia Perese on the bench. For the Bulldogs an opportunity has opened for Morgan Harper who is set to make his debut in the centres as Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is out with a shoulder injury whilst Reimis Smith returns from suspension in the centres in place of Kerrod Holland. In recent history it may appear the Broncos have dominated this contest by winning 3 of the last 4 but it is interesting to note that Canterbury have won the last 3 matches at ANZ Stadium by a combined total of 43 points. With the Broncos having not won there against Canterbury since 2015 and coming off a mentally draining golden point win over the Eels we are leaning towards Canterbury covering the line for this weeks match.
Recommended Bet: Canterbury Bulldogs +4 Line $1.90
Gold Coast Titans ($2.20) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.67)
Saturday, 7th September 7:35pm, Cbus Super Stadium
Saturday’s prime time game is a dead rubber as the 16th placed Gold Coast Titans welcome the 15th placed St. George Illawarra Dragons with neither side being able to move up or down the ladder. Both sides have been terribly disappointing this season as the Titans are on an embarrassing 10 game losing streak whilst the Dragons, a team many tipped to make the top four, have failed to fire a shot as they sit on a 3 game losing streak of their own. Funnily enough the last time the Dragons won was actually against the Titans in a 40-28 shootout back in round 21 and they will be hoping for another performance like that to finish their season on a high. To help the Dragons cause is the recall of star fullback Corey Norman into the fullback role as he is one of 5 changes that the Dragons have made. The others include Tristan Sailor coming onto the wing for Zac Lomax, Reece Robson starting at hooker as Cameron McInness is out with a broken leg, Blake Lawrie comes into the starting side and Jeremy Latimore comes onto the bench in his last game before retirement. For the Titans they have dropped English signing Kallum Watkins with Tyrone Peachey moving to the centres and AJ Brimson coming into the halves whilst Mitch Rein starts at hooker with Nathan Peats moving to lock and Jai Arrow joining the front row. With the wide scale changes for both sides it is hard to see either side being defensively sound and with 4 of their last 5 meetings exceeding the total points market set for this weeks game then we are confident of another shootout to finish off their 2019 season.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 43.5 $1.86
Wests Tigers ($2.06) vs Cronulla Sharks ($1.76)
Sunday, 8th September 2:00pm, Leichhardt Oval
Arguably the game of the round with what’s on the line for both teams as the 8th placed Cronulla Sharks travel to Leichhardt Oval to take on the 9th placed Wests Tigers, with the winner guaranteed a spot in the 2019 finals series. To add to the spice of the game is the fact that two one club legends in Paul Gallen and Robbie Farah could potentially be playing the last game of their career with their impending retirements at the end of the season. If this doesn’t put pressure on either of the sides then their contrasting form lines certainly will. The Sharks, for the fourth time this year, scored more tries than their opposition but still lost as they missed 3 conversions in a 1 point loss to the Raiders and they will be ruing their missed chances with the situation it now has them in. On the other hand the Tigers have scored 88 points and conceded 18 points in their last 2 victories and look one of the form teams of the competition thanks to a resurgent Benji Marshall. To add to the quality of these wins has been the fact that club captain Moses Mbye and veteran Robbie Farah have been on the sidelines with injury and it will be interesting to watch the team sheets for the Tigers this week as both have been named on an extended bench. Likewise to the Tigers the Sharks will be sweating on the fitness of a couple of big names after Shaun Johnson missed last weeks clash with a quadricep injury, but is named this week, and Matt Moylan who has also been named on an extended bench as he looks to return from a hamstring injury. The inclusion of any of these players for either side could be the defining factor in this clash and with this being the first meeting between the sides in 2019 it is hard to know how they will match up come kickoff on Sunday. Although the one stat that we do know is that the Sharks boast a 5 game winning streak against the Tigers, with the Tigers last win against the Sharks coming back in 2014. In 4 of these 5 clashes the Sharks have won by a margin of 8 points or under and we are leaning towards the Sharks in a close one that they will finally end up on the right side of.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks 1-12 $3.00
Penrith Panthers ($1.73) vs Newcastle Knights ($2.10)
Sunday, 8th September 4:05pm, Panthers Stadium
The final game of the 2019 regular season sees the Newcastle Knights travel to Panthers Stadium to take on the Penrith Panthers with both teams finals hopes extinguished thanks to some poor patches of form throughout the year. Both teams will be equally disappointed with their end of season form as they were both entrenched in the 8 coming into the last two months of the season but faltered when it mattered most. For the Knights they have struggled with off field drama as they won only 2 of their last 8 games and will miss the finals for the 6th year running. Likewise, the Panthers have struggled with off field issues and managed only 3 wins from their last 8 and have bowed out of the finals despite being considered a genuine premiership chance in 2019. Despite finals being out of reach for both sides they have remained relatively unchanged from recent weeks. The Panthers have dropped Sione Katoa to reserves in place of Wayde Egan, Jarome Luai has come onto the bench and Josh Mansour is among the extended reserves as he looks to return from a back injury. For the Knights, Lachlan Fitzgibbon takes Aiden Guerra’s place in the starting side whilst Kurt Mann comes onto the bench in place of Jacob Saifiti. In recent history the Panthers have dominated this contest by winning 6 of the last 7, including a 16-14 victory over the Knights from round 2 of this year but their attacking form over recent weeks has been close to embarrassing. With just 28 points scored in their last 3 outings we are leaning towards a Knights upset and with this being the last game of the regular season we’re predicting a large finish to it too with a dominant Knights victory.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights 13+ $5.25
