NRL Round 23
Round 22 saw a number of teams flexing their muscles with 4 teams winning by 20 points or more whilst we also saw the ladder leaders shocked at home. Read on as we preview this weeks games and look at some of the important clashes regarding the last 2 spots in the top 8 that are still up for grabs.
Parramatta Eels ($1.36) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($3.15)
Thursday, 22nd August 7:50pm, Bankwest Stadium
Th first game of the round is a battle of the west as the Canterbury Bulldogs travel out to their 2020 home ground in Bankwest Stadium to take on the Parramatta Eels in a Thursday night blockbuster. Both teams will be full of confidence too as the Eels are riding a 4 game winning streak and the Bulldogs are on a 3 game winning streak, including having won 5 of their last 7 games against teams who were all in the top 8 at the time of the game. This resurgent Bulldogs are seriously shaking up the top 8 and there is serious thought that the market still has them overpriced for this weeks match despite their 36-16 loss to the Eels in round 2 of this year. To help the Bulldogs cause is the fact that coach Dean Pay has named the same 17 from last weeks victory as he looks to continue their late-season charge up the table. For the Eels they welcome back Junior Paulo from a rolled ankle, which sees Daniel Alvaro shift to the bench and rugby union bound Tepai Moeroa drop to the reserves. In recent history, the Eels have dominated this contest in winning 5 of the last 6 and they will be confident with their impressive home record of this year, which has seen them win 8 from a possible 10 games whilst the Bulldogs have won just 4 of their 10 away games for 2019. Despite the Bulldogs poor away record we have seen enough to be convinced that the market has them priced over the odds and we are confident they can continue their resurgent form and cover the line for Thursday nights game.
Recommended Bet: Canterbury Bulldogs +7.5 $1.95
North Queensland Cowboys ($2.05) vs Penrith Panthers ($1.75)
Friday, 23rd August 6:00pm, 1300SMILES Stadium
Friday’s 6pm game sees a team whose finals aspirations are on the line, in the Penrith Panthers, come up against a side whose season is over in the North Queensland Cowboys after a string of heavy losses. For the Cowboys they will be simply be playing for pride after last weeks capitulation against the Knights which saw them let in 4 tries to their none in the last 22 minutes. On the other hand the Panthers have everything to play for as they sit in 9th spot on the ladder and are only outside of the top 8 on points differential. If the Panthers are to make the 8 then a win here is an absolute must and they will have to do so without winger Josh Mansour who is out with a back injury and is replaced by Stephen Crichton whilst Jerome Luai returns from injury and comes onto the bench in place of Sione Katoa. For the Cowboys they will be without Matt Scott after he suffered a stroke on Sunday, meaning Scott Bolton has been named to start, Coen Hess moves to the bench and Murray Taulagi starts on the wing, with Jordan Kahu moving to centre. Unfortunately for the Cowboys there is still no sign of Jason Taumalolo as they desperately need his spark in the forward pack after running for over 400m less than the Knights in last weeks loss. Without this go forward the Cowboys are struggling to score points and this has been noted not just over the course of the last few weeks but over the season as they rank 15th in the league for points scored. Interestingly the Panthers rank 13th for points scored as they have struggled to find cohesion in their spine and with this in mind we are predicting a low scoring affair between two sides who have struggled in attack over the course of 2019.
Recommended Bet: Total Match Points Under 38.5 $1.88
Brisbane Broncos ($2.00) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.78)
Friday, 23rd August 7:55pm, Suncorp Stadium
This could be billed as one of the matches of the round due to the numerous story lines and the rewards that are on the table for both teams. For the Broncos and ex Souths coach Anthony Seibold he will be desperate to avenge their round 8 embarrassment at the hands of his former club as well as helping maintain the Broncos spot within the top 8. On the other hand South Sydney coach Wayne Bennett will have to wake up a side who have now lost their last 3 and have dropped out of the top 4 for the first time since round 1. To make matters worse for South Sydney is the fact that they have lost centre Braidon Burns to a hamstring injury as he is replaced by Kyle Turner as well as prop Tom Burgess who is replaced by Liam Knight in the starting side, with Mark Nicholls coming onto the bench. For the Broncos they have some welcome returns with Matt Gillett coming into the side at the expense of Tevita Pangai, who is suspended, Alex Glenn returns in place of Gehaman Shibasaki and Jake Turpin is suspended and replaced by Sean O’Sullivan in the halves. In recent times Suncorp Stadium hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for the Rabbitohs as they have lost their last 3 there and the Broncos will be looking to extend this record through another controlled performance led by their halves kicking game. If the Broncos are able to control the middle and nullify the early ball that the Rabbitohs halves get then this will go a long way towards them coming out on top and with the weakened South Sydney side we are predicting them to do just that and avenge their round 8 loss.
Recommended Bet: Brisbane Broncos 1-12 $3.20
Cronulla Sharks ($1.40) vs New Zealand Warriors ($3.00)
Saturday, 24th August 3:00pm, PointsBet Stadium
The first game of Saturday sees the New Zealand Warriors travel to PointsBet Stadium to take on a Cronulla Sharks outfit who are hanging on by the skin of their teeth to their top 8 spot. The Sharks may have won last week against their arch nemesis in the Dragons but their performance was far from convincing as they completed at just 71% thanks to a whopping 16 errors and another performance like this would see them bundled out of the finals in no time flat. Unfortunately, the Warriors weren’t too much better as they were trounced 42-6 by the Roosters despite having 55% of possession and it will be interesting to see which team can improve on last weeks effort the most. This week sees the Sharks move Josh Dugan to fullback as Matt Moylan is injured with Ronaldo Mulitalo coming onto the wing whilst Andrew Fifita returns from a knee injury on the bench with Billy Magoulias dropping out. For the Warriors strike winger David Fusitu’a returns in place of Adam Pompey whilst Patrick Herbert replaces Gerard Beale and Isaac Luke starts at hooker with Jazz Tevaga moving to lock and Lachlan Burr reverting to the bench. The last time these two teams met was just over a month ago where the Warriors pulled off a 19-18 victory thanks to a 75th minute field goal from Blake Green and the Sharks will be ruing that loss after leading 18-10 with 20 minutes to go. Thankfully for the Sharks they return home this week where boast an impressive 7-3 record and the Warriors hold a poor 1 win from their last 4 matches against the Sharks at their home ground. With this in mind we are confident of a Sharks victory, albeit in a close match as 6 of the last 7 fixtures between these two sides have been decided by 4 points or less.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks 1-12 $2.90
Wests Tigers ($2.15) vs Newcastle Knights ($1.70)
Saturday, 24th August 5:30pm, Campbelltown Stadium
10th comes up against 11th here as the Newcastle Knights travel to Campbelltown Stadium to take on the Wests Tigers in a match that will surely end the season for the loser of this match. With both sides sitting 2 points outside of the 8 a win is an absolute must for both teams and it should be an enthralling game, especially if their round 19 clash is anything to go by. The Knights will be desperate to avenge their 26-28 loss to the Tigers from just 4 weeks ago and coach Nathan Brown will be stressing the importance of maintaining momentum, an area they couldn’t control in their last match. This week sees a number of injuries influencing the makeup of both sides with Jacob Liddle out for the season with a knee injury with Josh Reynolds taking his place at hooker, Chris McQueen has been dropped to the reserves with Luke Garner returning from suspension and youngster Tommy Talau has been dropped in place of Robert Jennings as Paul Momirovski moves into the centres. For the Knights hooker Connor Watson is replaced by Danny Levi thanks to a knee injury and Hymel Hunt has shifted into the centres with Sione Mata’utia moving to the wing. With the shaky form of both sides as well as the importance of this game it is hard to know which side will turn up for both teams but it is interesting to note that in the last four games between these sides the total points has exceeded the line that is set for this week and with this in mind we are predicting another high scoring affair between the two sides that could go either way.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 38.5 Points $1.88
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($5.00) vs Sydney Roosters ($1.18)
Saturday, 24th August 7:35pm, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
A replay of the classic ANZAC day clash sees the Sydney Roosters travel out to Netstrata Jubilee Stadium to take on the St. George Illawarra Dragons, who will be looking to avenge their 20-10 loss from their round 7 meeting earlier this year. In this game the Roosters dominated the middle by running for an extra 400 metres in what has turned out to be a common theme for the Dragons this year. Unfortunately for the Dragons things don’t get any easier as they have already lost Tariq Sims for the year and Ben Hunt & Tyson Frizzel will have to pass concussion protocol tests to feature this week. Dragons coach Paul McGregor has also called in Jonus Pearson for Mikaele Ravalawa as well as promoting Jackson Ford into the back row in a move to bolster up their depleted forward pack. For the Roosters they are flying high without a number of stars at the moment as they won 42-6 against the Warriors thanks to a James Tedesco and Luke Keary masterclass. This week sees the return of one of the Roosters best forwards for 2019 in Siosiua Taukeiaho as he returns from a calf injury at the expense of Sitili Tupouniua whilst there is still no sign of NSW Blues captain Boyd Cordner who remains on the sidelines. It’s hard to see the Dragons standing much of a chance here as they have lost 4 of their last 5 against the Roosters and with the Roosters on a 5 game winning streak, where 3 of those wins have been by over 20 points, we are confident in another Roosters demolition job as they march towards the finals.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 13+ $1.90
Melbourne Storm ($1.06) vs Gold Coast Titans ($9.00)
Sunday, 25th August 2:00pm, AAMI Park
First versus last as the desperate Gold Coast Titans take on the Melbourne Storm, who will be eager to bounce back from a shock 22-18 loss to the Raiders after leading 18-0 after 30 minutes of the game. This loss will have struck a chord with the Craig Bellamy led Storm and it could be just what they need coming into the finals and it poses a scary threat for a Titans side who are currently on an 8 game losing streak and have struggled to show any signs of reverting their form before the end of the season. As a result of their concerning form there has been a number of changes at the Titans with Michael Gordon returning at fullback & AJ Brimson moving to the bench, Jarrod Wallace returning to the bench at the expense of Bryce Cartwright, Jai Arrow moving to prop and Nathan Peats to lock. On the other hand the Storm have made just the one change with Brandon Smith returning from an ankle injury to take Tino Faasuamaleuai’s spot on the bench, Curtis Scott has also been named amongst the extended reserves as he pushes for his return from a foot injury. Needless to say that the storm have dominated this fixture by winning the last 3, including a 38-18 victory against the Titans from round 18 and with the Storm yet to lose 2 in a row in 2019 we are confident that they can cover the line for this weeks match.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm -19.5 $1.90
Canberra Raiders ($1.55) vs Manly Sea Eagles ($2.45)
Sunday, 25th August 4:05pm, GIO Stadium
The final game of the round is a clash of two top four sides as the fourth placed Manly Sea Eagles travel down to GIO Stadium to take on the third placed Canberra Raiders in what could be a heated and intense finish to the round. Both teams will be full of confidence as the Sea Eagles have flown into the top four for the first time all season with their 32-12 win over the Tigers whilst the Raiders scored one of the biggest wins in the clubs history by coming from 18-0 down to defeat the top of the table Storm away from home. As a result there is only one change between the two sides as Des Hasler has kept the same 17 from last weeks victory whilst the Raiders only change has been a forced one with Joseph Tapine out with a rib injury, which means that Ryan Sutton has moved into the starting lock spot and Hudson Young comes onto the bench. The last time these two teams met was back in round 7 where the Sea Eagles scored a 24-20 victory after being down 14-6 at one stage and they will be confident that they can continue an impressive streak of 4 wins from their last 5 games against the Raiders. Both sides have relatively even home & away records with the Raiders boasting a 6-4 record at home whilst the Sea Eagles have a 5-5 record on the road but the interesting point is the total points scored between these sides in recent history. Of their last 11 meetings the total points scored in 10 of these has exceeded the total points line for this weeks game and with both teams ranking at 4th and 5th for points scored in 2019 we are confident of another high scoring thriller to end round 23.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 40.5 $1.88
