NRL Round 20 Preview
The penultimate month of regular season NRL is upon us and if last rounds games are anything to go by then we’re in for an enthralling finish to the season with there theoretically still being 12 teams in the race to make the top 8. Read on as we preview round 20 of the NRL season.
Wests Tigers ($1.60) vs North Queensland Cowboys ($2.35)
Thursday, 1st August 7:50pm, Leichhardt Oval
The first game of the round sees two teams with faint hopes of still making the top 8 come together in what should end in a season defining or season ending result for either the Wests Tigers or the North Queensland Cowboys. Both teams are coming off agonisingly close games too, with the Cowboys failing to close out a match that they led by 10 with 20 minutes to as they lost 16-14 to the Sharks whilst the Tigers impressed to come from 12-0 down to win 28-26 in a shootout away from home against the Knights. The last time that these two teams met their game was also agonisingly close as the Tigers scraped a 27-26 win in golden point thanks to a classy field goal from veteran Benji Marshall. This win solidified a streak of 5 wins from their past 6 games against the Cowboys and it doesn’t look any easier for the men from Townsville as they have lost their last 2 at Leichhardt Oval as well. Thankfully for the Cowboys they welcome back skipper Michael Morgan into the halves after his concussion from state of origin as John Asiata moves to the bench and Corey Jensen drops to the reserves. For the Tigers they have named the same 17 that downed the Knights last week and coach Michael Maguire will be hoping that they can notch another win in their late bid to play finals in 2019. For us the interesting stat of this matchup is that of the Tigers last 5 wins against the Cowboys, none of them have been by more than 12 points so we are leaning towards another close game that goes the way of the home side.
Recommended Bet: Wests Tigers 1-12 $2.80
New Zealand Warriors ($2.30) vs Canberra Raiders ($1.62)
Friday, 2nd August 6:00pm, Mt Smart Stadium
Last week brought mixed emotions for both of the teams featuring in the Friday’s 6pm game as the Raiders stamped their premiership credentials with a victory against the Panthers, who were on a 7 game winning streak, whilst the Warriors went down to the Eels in controversial circumstances at Bankwest Stadium. This 24-22 loss for the Warriors proved a tough pill to swallow for many Warriors fans as they showed glimpses of their best throughout the game but struggled defensively as they missed 24 tackles and made 9 errors as the game slipped away for them. Coach Stephen Kearney will be hoping for a much more controlled performance back at home this week and he will be pleased to have named star half Kodi Nikorima, who returns from an ankle injury, as Chanel Harris-Tevita shifts to the bench and Adam Keighran drops to the reserves. For the Raiders, coach Ricky Stuart has named the same 17 that has seen his team fly on a 3 game winning streak as NSW blues winger Nick Cotric is still one week away from returning from his suspension. In recent history between these two teams the Warriors have a slight advantage by winning their last two meetings but the Raiders have won 2 of their last 3 in New Zealand and have shown impressive form on the road this year in winning 6 of a possible 9 matches whilst the Warriors have only won 4 of a possible 9 matches at home. With this in mind and the convincing form of the Raiders we are confident in the Raiders securing a narrow victory away from home.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders 1-12 $2.80
Brisbane Broncos ($2.65) vs Melbourne Storm ($1.48)
Friday, 2nd August 7:55pm, Suncorp Stadium
Friday’s prime time game brings together two of the biggest clubs in the competition as the Melbourne Storm travel to Suncorp Stadium as they look to avenge their first loss in over 2 months against a Brisbane Broncos side who are riding a 2 game winning streak and find themselves in the top 8 for the first time in over 3 months. This match has every bit of a blockbuster written all over it as Melbourne coach Craig Bellamy and his players will be eager to avenge their 1 point loss to the Sea Eagles whilst the Broncos will be fighting to hold onto 8th spot as a number of teams breathe down their neck. The Broncos will also be boosted by the return of Matt Gillett and Thomas Flegler to the forward pack but they will be without Tevita Pangai Junior who drops out with suspension. For the Storm they will also receive reinforcements as strike winger Suliasi Vunivalu returns from suspension in place of Sandor Earl. The Storm can also take confidence in their recent history against the Broncos. Not only did Storm defeat the Broncos 22-12 in round one of this year but they also hold a 6 game winning streak against the Broncos, which dates back to 2016 and to make matters worse they haven’t lost to the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium in over 8 years. It’s hard to see the Storm losing 2 in a row as they haven’t done that all year and the line looks quite generous for the Storm considering that they have covered that in their last 5 victories against the Broncos so we are leaning towards a Storm victory on the line.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm -5.5 Line $1.85
Manly Sea Eagles ($1.44) vs Newcastle Knights ($2.80)
Saturday, 3rd August 3:00pm, Lottoland
The Des Hasler led Manly Sea Eagles continue to shock about everyone who has followed their season so far as they secured an upset 11-10 victory over the Melbourne Storm who were on a 10 game winning streak and were by far the best team in the competition over recent months. This win continued their march towards the top 4 as they now sit only 2 points outside of the top 4 and they will be hoping that a win against the Knights in this match will see them mount the pressure on the teams ahead of them. For their opponents, the Newcastle Knights, they have dropped outside of the top 8 for the first time in 2 months as they are currently sliding down the table thanks to a 4 game losing streak. This losing streak has forced coach Nathan Brown into a major reshuffle as Jesse Ramien is dropped with Hymel Hunt moving into the centres and Kurt Mann shifting from five-eight to wing, with Mason Lino taking his spot in the halves. Connor Watson also moves into the starting hooker role as Danny Levi is dropped completely, Lachlan Fitzgibbon pushes Sione Mata’utia to the bench and Jacob Saifiti takes Jamie Burher’s spot on the bench. On the other hand the Sea Eagles have kept the same 17 from recent weeks and they will be hoping that they can continue to exploit a Newcastle defence that has conceded 76 points in their last 2 games. To make matters worse for the Knights, the Sea Eagles have an impeccable home record of 6 wins from 9 games and the Sea Eagles already boast a 26-18 victory against them from round 5 of this season. With this in mind it is hard to look past Manly this week and we are confident that they can win in convincing fashion too.
Recommended Bet: Manly Sea Eagles -6.5 Line $1.90
Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.80) vs Penrith Panthers ($1.44)
Saturday, 3rd August 5:30pm, Bankwest Stadium
Saturday’s 5:30pm game will see the Canterbury Bulldogs with their first chance to play at the stadium they will call home from the second half of next season in Bankwest Stadium as they welcome the Penrith Panthers in what looks to be an intriguing match for both sides. For the Panthers coach Ivan Cleary will be looking for a response from his players as they suffered their first loss in 7 weeks in what was a brutal wake up to the quality and consistency of football that they need to play if they want to feature in this years finals. On the other hand the Bulldogs were gallant in defeat to the defending premiers last week and with such a young side coach Dean Pay will be hoping that they can adopt a nothing to lose attitude over the last few weeks of their season in a bid to upset a few of the top sides. To do this coach Dean Pay has stuck strong with the same 17 from last weeks loss and Panthers coach Ivan Cleary has followed suit by giving the same 17 the opportunity to redeem themselves in light of their 30-18 loss to the Raiders. In recent history this matchup has been dominated by the Panthers as they have won 5 of their last 6 matches and we are predicting them to continue this streak but in a much closer fashion than what most people are expecting.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers 1-12 $3.00
Cronulla Sharks ($2.10) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.74)
Saturday, 3rd August 7:35pm, PointsBet Stadium
Arguably one of the games of the round is brought to us in the prime time slot of Saturday night as the Cronulla Sharks look to fight for their season against the second placed South Sydney Rabbitohs, who continue to find a way to win despite being seriously depleted by injuries. Both teams will be confident after scoring come from behind wins last round with the Sharks coming from 10 down to win by 2 points against the Cowboys whilst the Rabbitohs scored a try on the siren to down the Dragons by 4 points. To further boost the confidence of both teams is the return of a number of big names with the Sharks naming Wade Graham to return from a hamstring injury as Kurt Capewell drops to the bench, Matt Moylan returns at fullback as Josh Dugan shifts to the wing and Andrew Fifita is named to return from suspension on the bench. As a result of this Ronaldo Mulitalo, Blayke Brailey and Billy Magoulias drop to the reserves. For the Rabbitohs Sam Burgess is named to return from an infection from his shoulder surgery as Ethan Lowe moves to the bench and Liam Knight is named to return from suspension on the bench as Dean Britt and Jayden Su’A drop to the reserves. In recent history these two teams have shared the spoils with 2 wins each in the last 4 games but it is interesting to note that the Rabbitohs haven't won at PointsBet stadium since 2014. With this in mind and the return of some big stars for the Sharks we are tipping an upset win, albeit in a close encounter.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks 1-12 $3.25
Sydney Roosters ($1.10) vs Gold Coast Titans ($7.00)
Sunday, 4th August 2:00pm, Sydney Cricket Ground
The defending premiers in the Sydney Roosters take on the current bottom of the table in the Gold Coast Titans in the penultimate game of the round in what should be a much closer game than anticipated. The reason for this is the large injury toll that the Roosters are currently going through with Ryan Hall, Jake Friend, Boyd Cordner, Jared Warea-Hargreaves and Siosiua Taukeiaho all missing from the Roosters 17 this week due to a mixture of injury and suspension. As a result Isaac Liu, Zane Tetevano and Angus Crichton move into the starting side as Nat Butcher, Lindsay Collins and Poasa Faamausili come onto the bench. For the Titans they aren’t injury free themselves as both AJ Brimson and Dale Copley are out with injury as Brian Kelly comes back into the centres and Riley Jacks into the halves. The interesting thing to note is that Ashley Taylor has been named on the extended bench as he looks to play his first game since round 12 due to personal reasons. Taylor's inclusion could help swing this contest but it would be a mammoth effort for the Titans to pull of an upset victory here as they are currently on a 5 game losing streak, have lost their last 4 against the Roosters and they haven’t beaten the Roosters in Sydney since 2013. Despite this the Roosters have been a bit shaky in terms of their form and with some big outs in their forward pack we feel this game will be a lot closer than the current market suggests and we are happy to take the Titans with the handicap start.
Recommended Bet: Gold Coast Titans +16.5 $1.90
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.85) vs Parramatta Eels ($1.95)
Sunday, 4th August 4:05pm, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
The finals game of the round sees the Parramatta Eels travel to Netstrata Jubilee Stadium to take on the St. George Illawarra Dragons as they look to dispel many pundits doubts on their ability to play away from home in 2019. Both sides are coming off close games last week with the Dragons getting beaten on the buzzer by the second placed Rabbitohs in a much improved performance in Gareth Widdop’s first game back whilst the Eels held on against the Warriors in a 2 point victory at Bankwest Stadium. This week sees both teams make a couple of changes from last weeks sides with Dragons coach Paul McGregor dropping Matt Dufty and Josh Kerr from the bench in place of Jeremy Latimore and Patrick Kaufusi but other than that his starting 13 remains the same. For the Eels they welcome back Michael Jennings into the centres, which forces Brad Takairangi to the wing and Ethan Parry to the reserves whilst Shaun Lane comes back into the starting side as Marata Niukore goes to the bench and Oregon Kaufusi drops out. The last time that these two teams met was back in round 8 where the Eels defeated the Dragons 32-18 as they scored the last 14 points of the match in a performance inspired by 2 tries from Maika Sivo. This win solidified a dominant period for the Eels over the Dragons as they have won 9 of the last 10 meetings between the two sides. With this dominance in mind and the added bonus of a late surge towards a top 4 spot we are predicting that the market has got it wrong and that it will be an Eels victory.
Recommended Bet: Parramatta Eels $1.95
