NRL Round 16 Preview
Round 16 brings to us a shortened round with only four games spread across as many days due to the final game of State of Origin, read on as we analyse how each of the teams are affected by State of Origin and preview how we think they will perform.
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($2.60) vs Melbourne Storm ($1.50)
Thursday, 4th July 7:50pm, WIN Stadium
Two teams coming off impressive wins in different circumstances come together for the opening game of the round as the top of the table Melbourne Storm travel to WIN Stadium to take on the St. George Illawarra Dragons. The Dragons looked out on their feet during the first 30 minutes of their clash with the Cowboys but to the delight of their coach Paul McGregor they showed a spirited effort to come back and win 22-14 to reignite their hopes of playing finals football. This week they will need every bit of that spirit as they come up against the Melbourne Storm who are riding a 6 game winning streak and currently sit a whopping 6 points clear at the top of the table. To add to this streak is the fact that they knocked off the defending premiers and a team who had already beaten them this season in the Sydney Roosters in a tense 14-12 victory in Adelaide last start. Unfortunately for Storm fans his week sees them without a host of stars as they lose Cameron Munster, Will Chambers, Josh Addo-Carr, Dale Finucane, Felise Kaufusi and Christian Welch to origin duties and it has led coach Craig Bellamy to hand an NRL debut to Billy Walters in the halves, a club debut to Solomone Kata in the centres and recalling Sandor Earl, Jahrome Hughes and Albert Vete from injuries and form concerns. For the Dragons they will also be without a large number of players as Ben Hunt, Corey Norman, Paul Vaughan, Tyson Frizzell and Tariq Sims are all on origin duty and as a result Jai Field, Darren Nicholls, Mitch Allgood, Pat Kaufusi and Tim Lafai are all called into the side. In recent history the Storm have dominated this contest by winning five of the last seven matches, including a 22 point victory in round 17 of last year but the Dragons have the upper hand on them at home by winning four of their last six games. Despite their improved record against them at home it is hard to tip against the Storm as they have swept past almost every one in recent weeks and we are confident that with the leadership of Cameron Smith that they can still get a victory despite missing a large number of players.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 1-12 $2.75
Wests Tigers ($2.60) vs Sydney Roosters ($1.50)
Friday, 5th July 7:55pm, Bankwest Stadium
Friday’s game sees the defending premiers, the Sydney Roosters, travel to Bankwest Stadium to take on a resurgent Wests Tigers who are currently riding a 2 game winning streak. The Tigers have been ever impressive in their last two wins against the Cowboys and the Rabbitohs as they showed grit and determination to hold on and come back in either game. This form poses a concerning prospect for the Roosters who are currently in the midst of a severe Origin form slump as they have won only one of their last five games and that was against the 16th placed Canterbury Bulldogs. To make matters worse for the Roosters they will be without James Tedesco, Boyd Cordner and Siosiua Taukeiaho who are all out due to origin and injuries but Roosters fans will be thankful to see that Luke Keary is back in the halves after a layoff due to concussion concerns. On the other hand the Tigers only lose Moses Mbye to representative duties, who is replaced by ex-Rooster Paul Momirovski in the centres, and they will be confident that with their minimal changes that they have the team to defeat the Roosters. The last time these two teams met it was a match dominated by Latrell Mitchell as he scored three tries in a 26 point effort as the Roosters downed the Tigers 42-12 in round 8 at the Sydney Cricket Ground. Unfortunately for the Tigers Latrell Mitchell is playing in this game after he was overlooked for origin again and with his inclusion as well as the return of Luke Keary we are confident that the Roosters can score an important victory to help revive their mid season form slump.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters -5.5 Line $1.90
Newcastle Knights ($1.67) vs New Zealand Warriors ($2.20)
Saturday, 6th July 7:35pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
Saturday’s game sees the New Zealand Warriors travel to Newcastle to take on the Knights in an important clash for their finals aspirations. The Warriors will fancy their chances against a depleted Knights and will be eager to play after their shock 19-18 loss to the Penrith Panthers last week after leading 18-12 with just 5 minutes left on the clock. On the other hand the Knights will be looking to continue their resurgent form that has seen them win 7 of their last 8 games but will have to do so without the services of Kalyn Ponga, David Klemmer, Daniel Saifiti, Edrick Lee and Tim Glasby who are out due to representative duties. Thankfully for Knights fans and Knights coach Nathan Brown he has been able to recall hooker Danny Levi who returns from injury whilst he has also moved Connor Watson to fullback, Mason Lino to the halves and Kurt Mann to the centres. For the Warriors they will be without hooker Nathaniel Roache who is out for the season with an ACL injury as Isaac Luke returns on the bench whilst Lachlan Burr comes onto the bench in place of Leivaha Palu. In recent history this contest has been relatively even with both sides winning 2 games each over the last 2 years but the Knights will take confidence in their 36-18 victory against the Warriors from round 8 of this season. In that match the Knights dominated possession whilst completing at 91% and despite the number of players that they have out we are still confident that they can notch another victory against the Warriors, although in much closer fashion than their last victory against them.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights 1-12 $2.85
Cronulla Sharks ($1.32) vs Brisbane Broncos ($3.40)
Sunday, 7th July 4:05pm, PointsBet Stadium
Two teams coming off disappointing losses come together for the final game of round 16 as the under pressure 14th placed Brisbane Broncos travel to PointsBet Stadium to take on the 7th placed Cronulla Sharks. The Broncos will be desperate to improve their form in New South Wales as they slumped to their 5th loss in New South Wales for 2019 as they went down 26-12 to the Knights in Newcastle and coach Anthony Seibold will have to make do without a number of stars due to injury and representative duties this week. The Sharks will also be eager to avenge their 29-10 loss at the hands of the Broncos from round 7 of this year in what was one of their more disappointing efforts for 2019 as they completed at only 65% and were strangled out of the game due to the Broncos having 58% possession. This time the Sharks will be without the services of Wade Graham as he has been called into NSW origin camp but their one loss is minuscule in comparison to the Broncos who will be without Corey Oates, Matt Gillett, David Fifita and Joe Ofehengaue due to Queensland origin commitments as well as Anthony Milford and Richie Kennar who are out with knee and shoulder injuries respectively. As a result Seibold has moved Darius Boyd back to fullback, hooker Jake Turpin starts in the halves and Herbie Farnsworth and Xavier Coates both debut on the wings for them. One area that Brisbane can take confidence in is their record against the Sharks, recently the Broncos have had the wood on the Sharks in winning their last 5 meetings and they will be hoping that they can continue this form with another win in a bid to revive their 2019 season. Despite this it is difficult to have any confidence in the Broncos due to their inconsistent form in Sydney, their multiple losses and the fact that the Sharks will be eager to perform this week after copping a spray after their shock loss to the Bulldogs from last week.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks -9.5 Line $1.90
