Round 7
Collingwood Magpies vs Port Adelaide Power
May 3rd (Friday 7.50pm) Marvel Stadium
The two in form teams of the comp go to battle on Friday night. Port are riding high. After smashing the Eagles in Perth, they got through the Kangaroos last week with ease and will be fired up for Friday night football. The Pies held on for dear life vs the Bombers on Anzac day but a win is a win. They bring back Jamie Elliott and Ben Reid for Cox and Varcoe who are two big outs. Cox provides them with that different forward option to De Goey. Port will miss their best player in Robbie Gray. This game is at Marvel Stadium which plays into the Powers hands as it’s similar in dimensions to Adelaide Oval. If Power bring their contested ball game and their mids get on top early I am tipping an upset.
H2H
Power have won 4 out of the last 5 games vs the Pies
Best Bet
Power +20.5 $1.90
Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks
May 4th (Saturday 1.45pm) MCG
These two teams played off in a Semi Final last year and the Demons smashed the Hawks all over the park that night - how things can change in footy. The Demons look more like a VFL side then an AFL side. They were smashed in all departments last week vs the Tigers. Demons lose one of their so called hard nuts in Jack Viney. He is recovering from a Sydney Stack hip and shoulder. The Hawks used their get out of jail card last vs the Blues. Down by 30 points during the game came back to win by 5 points. They welcome back silky smooth Shaun Burgoyne; when he gets going he adds polish and his delivery is the best in the comp. Predicting a Hawks win but this game will be close. I would love to see some fight from the Demons.
H2H
Hawks have won 3 of the last 5 games vs the Demons
Best Bet
Hawks 1-39 $2.35
Hawks -4.5 $1.90
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs St Kilda Saints
May 4th (Saturday 1.45pm) UNSW Stadium
The Giants are a team to fear in season 2019. They got back one of their stars last week in T.Greene and Stephen Conglio is in the running for a Brownlow medal. They can hurt you both in attack and defence. Josh Kelly has just signed a new contract and Jeremy Cameron is leading the Coleman medal. This team is the real deal and head to the nation's capital full of confidence. They lost to the Dockers last time they played there and will want to change that this week vs the Saints. The Saints on the other hand are a side I can never get a read on. They play like a finals side one week then play like the Saints of old last week vs the Crows. A lot of players are out for the Saints; Jack Steven as he battles some off field stuff and Jack Lonie is out with a knee injury. Giants are missing their A-grade midfielder in Lachie Widfield who is having a week off with a corkie but they welcome back their captain Phill Davis.
H2H
Giants have won 3 of the past 5 games vs the Saints. One was a draw in 2018
Best Bet
Giants 40+ $2.35
Giants -25.5 $1.90
Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans
May 4th (Saturday 4.35pm) Gabba
The Lions got the win over the Gold Coast Suns last week in pretty dominate display. They will be taking a lot of confidence from their good start to season 2019 and they love playing at the Gabba on a Saturday afternoon. The Swans on the other hand have been horrible and last week at times looked like the Giants were having a training run vs them. A week is a long time in football and I am tipping an. Lions team is unchanged the Swans welcome back Jack, Hayward and Robbie Fox. No Buddy for the Swans but they need to win this game so they can prove to people that they can win without the Bud. Swans in a thriller.
H2H
Swans have won the last 5 vs the Lions
Best Bet
Swans win $2.90
Swans +18.5 $1.90
West Coast Eagles vs Gold Coast Suns
May 4th (Saturday 6.10pm) Optus Stadium
If I was the Gold Coast Suns I would be very scared this weekend playing an Eagles side at Optus Stadium that has been blasted in the media all week. The Eagles have been labeled “weak”, “not interested” and “flag hangover”. I expect them on their home deck to come out and destroy the Suns. Josh Kennendy and Jack Darling have had no influence on games like they did last year so expect a big week from those two. They welcome back Jack Redden for Brander. The Suns on the other hand were dealt a football lesson last week vs the Lions. They couldn’t get any of their running game going and at times it looked like men vs boys. It is a big week for the Gold Coast defence, if they are any chance of winning this game they need to stop the Eagles forwards. At this stage the Suns are picking up the frequent flyer miles.
H2H
West Coast have won 3 of the last 5 games vs the Suns. One was a draw in 2015
Best Bet
Eagles -46.5 $1.90
Eagles +40 $1.62
Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Tigers
May 4th (Saturday 7.25pm) Marvel Stadium
Bulldogs last week pushed the Dockers in Perth and will take a lot of confidence away from that game to tackle the Tigers this weekend. They have a great midfield, the Dogs, but they don’t have a genuine key forward. I guess they are waiting for the return of Tom Boyd. The Bont has a big ask this weekend trying to withstand the Tigers’ unbelievable midfield led by Dustin Martin and Dion Prestia. David Astbury and Jack Riewoldt are out with injury but they have Tom Lynch to fill his position and played his best game when Jack missed the victory vs the Power in Adelaide; Lynch kicked 6. Tipping a very straightforward win for the Tigers.
H2H
Bulldogs have won 4 of the last 5 games vs the Tigers
Best Bet
Tigers -20.5 $1.90
Carlton Blues vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
May 5th (Sunday 1.10pm) Marvel Stadium
The Blues last week for three qtrs beat the Hawks but good sides find the way to win and bad teams find ways to lose them. They have showed the competition that they are improving and this week vs Kangaroos can cause another upset. Will be a lot tougher though this weekend with Simpson, Kruzer, Mcgovern and Newman all missing through injury. They do welcome back Charlie Curnow back from injury however. The Kangaroos have been shocking this year and this could add salt to wound with a loss to the Blues this weekend. Coach Scott has made a big point by dropping Aaron Hall who they paid big dollars for from the Suns. I am tipping a Kangaroos win.
H2H
Kangaroos have won the last 4 games vs the Blues
Best Bet
Kangaroos win $1.67
Kangaroos -6.5 $1.90
Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers
May 5th (Sunday 3.20pm) MCG
The only game at the MCG this weekend looks a cracker against two genuine premiership contenders. The Cats were in cruise mode vs the Eagles in Geelong last week and a big win vs the Bombers will cement their premiership credentials. Gary Ablett looks unstoppable at the moment and add the fire power of Kelly, Selwood, Dangerfield and Duncan and that is a very hard midfield to stop. The Bombers were unlucky vs the Pies last week on Anzac day and a few iffy umpiring decisions didn’t go their way but that’s footy. Bombers welcome back Orizio Fantasia who will add run and carry through the midfield for the Bombers. I am tipping a Bombers win at the MCG.
H2H
Bombers won both games vs the Cats last year.
Best Bet
Bombers win $2.60
Bombers +13.5 $1.90
Adelaide Crows vs Fremantle Dockers
May 5th (Sunday 4.10pm) Adelaide Oval
This match has the potential to be a classic. Two teams in good form and playing an attractive brand of football. The Crows last week beat a St Kilda side who was in red hot form. I loved seeing Taylor Walker dominate last week and if he does that again they will beat the Dockers and beat them well. They welcome back Bryce Gibbs who missed last week's game with an illness. The Dockers have been in great form since losing to the Eagles in round 4 they have gone on to beat the Giants in Canberra and beat the Bulldogs in Perth last week. Brandon Matera and Jesse Hogan are in career best form and are working well as a forward partnership. I am tipping the Crows but only because it is in Adelaide.
H2H
Crows have won 3 of the last 5 games vs Freo
Best Bet
Crows 1-39 $2.10
Dockers +18.5 $1.90
