AFL Previews

AFL Round 1 Betting Preview and Tips

Carlton vs Richmond

MCG, Mar 21 (Thu 7:20pm)

Footy is back with a bang on a Thursday night at the MCG. Tigers will be wanting to get off to a good start to season 2019 as their 2018 ended in heart break. Blues on the other hand will want to show the footy world they are improving instead of going backwards. I see this game being tight for a half but the class of the Tigers will over run the young Carlton team. Expect Dustin Martin to over power the young Carlton mids. He polled 3 votes this game last year. I expect the same.

Head to Head Record

Tigers have won the last 5 games vs Blues

Best Bets

Tigers -38.5 $1.90

Dustin Martin most touches

Collingwood vs Geelong Cats

MCG, Mar 22 (Fri 7:50pm)

MCG on a Friday night, no place better in Australia. What a cracker this game is set out to be. Pies came ever so close to winning the flag in 2018 so they will be out to prove the critics that is wasn't a fluke. Cats on the other hand got taught a football lesson by Melbourne last year in the elimination final and over the off season have been branded too old and too slow. I am tipping an upset here with the Cats winning in a tight contest. Dangerfield, Kelly, Selwood, Dalhaus and Duncan controlling the midfield and providing their forwards with good ball. Gary Ablett has announced that he will be playing mostly forward this year which is worry for all sides.

Head to Head Record

Very even here with Pies winning 3 of the last 5 games vs Cats

Best Bets

Cats win H2H $2.20

Melbourne vs Port Adelaide

MCG, Mar 23 (Sat 1:45pm)

Big game for two teams that are expected to feature heavily in September. Demons shocked the footy world when they nearly made a Grand Final and played some exciting and fast football. Big out for them is their number 1 recruit over the week in Steven May, who is out for 1 week. Power on the other hand got rid of their best player in the off season in Chad Wingard but gained Scott Lycett from the Eagles as a back up ruck for Paddy Ryder. Will be a tough contest and won in the midfield. Demons will be too good for a Power side missing Ollie Wines. Clayton Oliver stamped himself as a prolific ball winner and will go close to most touches for the game.

Head to Head Record

Port and Melbourne have always had tough battles with the Power winning 3 of the last 5 encounters.

Best Bets

Demons -20.5 $1.90

Clayton Oliver most touches

Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn

Adelaide Oval, Mar 23 (Sat 4:35pm)

Massive season for the Crows they were tipped to win the flag last year and failed to make the finals. Their coach Don Pyke came under fire and the captain Taylor Walker seemed to be playing injured all season. I am tipping a new look crows led by Rory Sloane they will be back in September and no better way to start their 2019 campaign vs Hawks at Adelaide Oval. Hawks on the other hand were knocked out in straight sets in last year’s final series, they have acquired a genuine match winner in Chad Wingard who knows Adelaide Oval well and a running machine Tom Scully. I am tipping the Crows only because it is at Adelaide Oval and home ground advantage is vital in footy these days.

Head to Head Record

Last time these two teams played Hawks won by 50 points.

Best Bets

Hawks +19.5 $1.90

Western Bulldogs vs Sydney Swans

Marvel Stadium, Mar 23 (Sat 7:25pm)

Interesting game here these two teams played in the 2016 Grand Final with the Dogs winning a thriller but they have gone backwards since that day. No real gains in the trade period and I expect it is going to be a very long year for Dogs fans. Swans on the other hand have been written off and told they can't challenge the flag. I disagree and believe they will be pushing for a top 4 season. They have a solid backline and great midfield and then people do forget they have the best player in the game, Lance Buddy Franklin, who with the new rules changes will love the open space. Expect the swans to win this well.

Head to Head Record

Swans beat the Dogs by 7 points lat year at the same venue.

Best Bets

Swans H2H $1.62

Lance Franklin most goals

Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles

The Gabba, Mar 23 (Sat 8:20pm)

The premiers of 2018 start their season in Brisbane which is never an easy task. The Lions got into gear last year and beat some notable teams to the back end of the season. I expect them to be pumped up for this round 1 game; a mini grand final for them. Will be tight for the whole game but the Eagles forward line should be too big and strong for the less experienced Lions defenders. It will be closer than people think.

Head to Head Record

Eagles have won the last 5 games vs the Lions. 3 being at the Gabba.

Best Bets

Eagles -15.5 $1.90

St Kilda vs Gold Coast Suns

Marvel Stadium, Mar 24 (Sun 1:10pm)

Where do I start here? Two teams I expect to finish last and second last. Saints have had an off season from hell with 12 players on their long term injury list. Their big recruit Dan Hannebery doesn't look like he will play this game after picking up a hamstring injury in the pre-season. On the other hand, the Suns lost two of their best players in Tom Lynch and Steven May. I admire Stuart Dew’s attitude, “if you don't want to be here you will be traded”. I am tipping the Suns to win this game in a tough and weird contest. Really hard to gauge where the goals will come from for both teams.

Head to Head Record

Suns have a very good record vs the Saints winning the 3 out of the last 5 games vs Saints.

Best Bets

Suns H2H $3.95

Suns +24.5 $1.90

GWS Giants vs Essendon

Sydney Showground Stadium, Mar 24 (Sun 3:20pm)

Great Sunday afternoon game. Dylan Shiel for the Bombers returns to his old side for the first time since being traded last season. I expect him to be tagged as he is a genuine A-grade midfielder who can deliver quality ball to his forwards. Joe Daniher and Jake Stringer are a scary sight for any defence and I expect them to get on top of the Giants defenders. Giants on the other hand need to start this game well and they can do that with a good midfield and quality forward led by Jeremy Cameron and Toby Greene. Greene is a match winner and adds a dynamic attack in the forward line can play big and can play small. If he is on top the Giants usually win games of footy. Tipping the Bombers in a close contest, The Bombers midfield just screams silk and class. Merrett and Heppell always delivers great ball for their forwards.

Head to Head Record

Bombers won at this venue last year by 35 points. Stringer kicked 3.

Best Bets

Bombers H2H $2.05

Fremantle vs North Melbourne

Optus Stadium, Mar 24 (Sun 6:20pm)

Round 1 concludes in the West and I know this game will be a belter. Kangas recruited well over the off-season but no one can compete with what the Dockers gained in Lobb, Conca and Hogan who on their day can cut a game apart. It hasn’t all been rosy however with Jesse Hogan and the Dockers having had a week they would want to forget. Hogan suspended. Only negative for the Dockers is their JLT form was horrible and vs the Eagles. It looked like under 18s vs a senior team. They will want to change that heading into round 1. Kangaroos will want to be stealing this game away from the Dockers with their midfield led by Higgins and Ziebell who are tough on ballers. Jarred Polec on a left wing with his lovely kicking will be able to set up the Kangas forwards. Expect a tight game with the Dockers just getting over the line, again home ground advantage will help them here.

Head to Head Record

Kangas beat the Dockers by 25 points last year at Optus Oval. I expect that to happen again.

Best Bets

Kangaroos H2H $1.95

Kangaroos +4.5 $1.90

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