Essendon Bombers v St Kilda Saints
Friday, August 10 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium
In this clash, the Bombers and Saints face off at Etihad Stadium on Friday. The Bombers are coming off a close 103-107 loss against the Hawks by 4 points. Which probably ended their season. However, they should enjoy playing the Saints once again. In Round 17 last season at Etihad, they comfortably beat the Saints by 61 points. St Kilda come into this matchup after 3 straight losses and that includes a 35 point loss to the lowly Bulldogs last week. They kicked just 3 goals after the first quarter and I doubt that will improve against the in-form Bombers. Bombers at the line in a big victory.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Bombers are 5-2 at Etihad Stadium. This season, the Saints hold a 2-7 (1 draw) record at Etihad Stadium.
Head to Head Record
The Bombers hold a 6-5 record against the Saints.
Best Bet
Hawthorn Hawks v Geelong Cats
Saturday, August 11 1:45pm, MCG
This should be an absolute classic between the Hawks and Cats at the MCG on Saturday. Hawthorn’s form is back after 3 straight wins and they’ve jumped into 5th on the ladder. Meanwhile, the Cats challenged the Tigers here last week, losing by a kick. They sit 9th on the ladder and really need to win this clash. The two sides met in Round 2 with one of the best games of the season ending in a 118-117 victory for the Hawks. So the betting angle in this clash should be the overs. The Hawks have kicked 100+ in 3 straight games and their last game at the ‘G totalled 210 points. The last meeting also totalled 235 points. The Cats enjoy scoring against the Hawks with 80+ points scored in the last 6 meetings.
Stadium Record
This season, the Hawks hold a 6-2 record at MCG. In 2018, the Cats hold a 2-4 record at MCG.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 14-6 against the Hawks since 2010.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns v Richmond Tigers
Saturday, August 11 2:10pm, Metricon Stadium
Just like last week, the Suns will start as massive underdogs with a 65.5 point handicap on offer. It’s a fair line to say the least after last weeks 96 point defeat against the Demons at the MCG. They’ve lost all 5 games at Metricon this season and that includes a 35 point defeat to the Blues in the last clash. So with the Tigers building towards the finals, this could get ugly. The value should be the Tigers scoring over 100 points. They’ve won the last 3 against the Suns and average 116 points per game in those victories.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Suns hold a 0-5 record at Metricon Stadium. The Tigers haven't played at Metricon Stadium since Round 19, 2017, which they won by 33 points against the Suns.
Head to Head Record
Since 2010, the Tigers are 4-3 against the Suns.
Best Bet
Tigers 100 or more points (TBA)
Port Adelaide Power v West Coast Eagles
Saturday, August 11 4:35pm, Adelaide Oval
The talk of the week will obviously be the suspension to Eagles midfielder Andrew Gaff. However, on the field, they love playing the Power and I don’t see that changing. They beat them 102-60 in Round 7 and also hold a 4-0 record at the Adelaide Oval against the Power. Port have lost 3 of their last 4 coming into this clash. So they’re out of form and the Eagles record at this venue should see a close margin. Eagles at the line.
Stadium Record
This season, the Power hold a 7-3 record at Adelaide Oval. The Eagles are 0-1 at Adelaide Oval in 2018 but hold a 4-0 record against the Power.
Head to Head Record
Dating back to 2010, the Eagles are 8-5 against the Power.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies v Brisbane Lions
Saturday, August 11 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium
The Magpies take on the Lions in a crucial clash for the home side. Injuries have hit the Pies hard this season but they still sit 6th on the ladder and need to beat the 16th placed Lions. Last week, the Magpies travelled to Sydney and almost stole the 4 points as they went down 73-71. The Lions are coming off 3 straight losses and don’t travel well. They hold a 2-7 away record this season and haven’t won in Melbourne. They’ve also lost 4 in a row against the Magpies and I see that trend continuing.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Magpies are 2-0 at Etihad Stadium. In contrast, the Lions are 0-3.
Head to Head Record
Dating back to 2010, the Magpies are 7-2 against the Lions.
Best Bet
GWS Giants v Adelaide Crows
Saturday, August 11 7:25pm, Manuka Oval
The Giants moved into 3rd on the ladder and they’ll aim for their 5th straight win on Saturday night. Last week, they made the Blues look average once again with a 105 point win. But injuries was the storyline as they had 16 players on the field in the last quarter! The Crows are coming off a huge Showdown win over the Power which kept their slim top 8 hopes alive. However, the Giants took them down at the Adelaide Oval in Round 11 by 16 points. They have won both games at this venue this season and I just think with a top 4 spot on the line, the Giants have more to play for. They also rank number 1 in the AFL for points allowed as the home side and that should help them curtail the Crows forward line.
Stadium Record
In 2018, the Giants are 2-0 at Manuka Oval. This is the first game for the Crows at Manuka Oval.
Head to Head Record
The Crows are 8-2 against the Giants since 2010.
Best Bet
North Melbourne Kangaroos v Western Bulldogs
Sunday, August 12 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium
North Melbourne is coming off 2 straight wins and they have a top 8 spot on their minds. They just beat the Lions by 3 points at the Gabba and previously smashed the Eagles by 40 points. However, the trend in this matchup is close finishes. The last 3 meetings have been decided by under 6 points and the Bulldogs are 3-1 against them since 2016. The Bulldogs also come into this clash off the back of a 35 point win over the Saints at this venue. The difference in this clash should be the Kangaroos top 8 motivation. So in a close finish, the Roos should win this by 1-39 for the value bet. I also like the Dogs at the line.
Stadium Record
This season, the Kangaroos are 5-4 at Etihad Stadium and the Bulldogs hold a 5-6 record.
Head to Head Record
Dating back to 2010, the two teams can't be separated in the head to head with a 7-7 record.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons v Sydney Swans
Sunday, August 12 3:20pm, MCG
The game of the day takes place at the MCG with the Demons hosting the Swans. Melbourne easily crushed the Suns last week by 96 points but they will face a challenge against the Swans. Sydney ended a 2 game losing streak with a 2 point win over the Magpies. Franklin was the hero with a 6 goal haul. They will be underdogs as they travel to Melbourne. But interestingly, they’ve won 6 in a row against the Demons and 4 straight when they meet at the MCG. Sydney won their last clash at the ‘G in Round 8 against the Hawks so they could spring an upset here.
Stadium Record
This season, the Demons are 4-5 at MCG. This season, the Swans are 1-0 at MCG. Which they won against the Hawks by 8 points.
Head to Head Record
Since 2010, the Swans are 6-1 against the Demons.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers v Carlton Blues
Sunday, August 12 4:40pm, Optus Stadium
The round ends at Optus Stadium with a bottom 8 clash between the Dockers and Blues. The two sides met in Round 13 at Etihad and the Dockers easily took care of the Blues in a 57 point win. They hold a 5-1 record against the Blues since 2013 and I don’t see that trend changing. Carlton have only beaten the Suns and Bombers this season so they’ll likely struggle to match the Dockers. Fremantle love playing at this venue against fellow bottom 8 sides with a 5-1 record. So the home side should enjoy a comfortable win over the Blues.
Stadium Record
This season, the Dockers hold a 6-5 record at Optus Stadium. The Blues have never played at Optus Stadium.
Head to Head Record
Since 2010, the Dockers are 7-3 against the Blues.
Best Bet
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