2018 Super Rugby Grand Final Preview
Crusaders v Lions
AMI Stadium
5:30pm AEDT Saturday 4 August 2018
21 weeks of Super Rugby action is done and dusted, and we are left with a replay of last year’s final between the champion Crusaders and the challenging Lions. Last year, the Crusaders prevailed on their visit to South Africa, striking early and hanging on to win 25-17. This time, they will have the home ground advantage behind them, and they have been extraordinarily tough to handle in Christchurch this year. They come into the final on the back of an intimidating winning streak and brimming with confidence, but you can’t discount a Lions team who will be playing like they have nothing to lose. A final that has a favourite starting at $1.09 might seem like a done deal, but these Lions are at their most dangerous when they throw caution to the wind. This one might be closer than many people suspect.
The Crusaders bring an almost unprecedented form line into this final, having not suffered a loss since round 4 this year. They have found a way to win that doesn’t necessarily rely on the flashes of brilliance favoured by some of their Kiwi compatriots, but rather by applying pressure until their opposition cracks, and putting them to the sword. They have strengths all over the park, and while it is simple to see where the attacking threats come from for the Highlanders, Chiefs or Hurricanes, it is harder to distinguish for the Crusaders. Certainly Richie Mo’unga has come into his own this year, and will be putting plenty of pressure on Beauden Barrett throughout the internationals. He has some class outside him as well, where the centre pairing of Ryan Crotty and Jack Goodhue has been particularly impressive. Sam Whitelock captains the team and leads an experienced and street smart forward pack, with Kieran Read and Matt Todd combining in a very dangerous backrow. It’s difficult to find a weakness anywhere, hence their dominance, and the Lions will need to think creatively about where they will attack this team.
The South Africans, on the other hand, have had their ups and downs this year. They are clearly a much tougher proposition at home, but even there they have dropped a couple of matches in 2018. Last week against the Waratahs they showed the kind of grit that will be needed this weekend, after going down by a couple of tries early. They steadied themselves and rallied a comeback, and there will no doubt be times where the Crusaders have them under just as much pressure. They will need to find a way to hold their nerve and counter punch.
Like the Crusaders, the Lions have threats across the park, but so much of their success or failure this weekend will rest on their two talisman, Elton Jantjies and Kwagga Smith. Smith is dynamite around the park, and with captain Warren Whiteley, will be tasked with shutting down the dangerous Crusaders backrow. The Crusaders will be aware of the threat he poses with ball in hand, so expect them to keep him on the ground and out of play as much as possible. Those two will be able supported by the ever dependable Malcolm Marx, who has proven a key plank in the pack in their recent victories. Jantjies, on the other hand, can be rocks or diamonds, but perhaps the lack of expectation on him and his team could be the key to him breaking the game open. Allowed to play with free reign, there are few in world rugby who can do what he can do, but put under pressure he can crack like fine china. There is no doubt he too will be a target of the Crusaders backrow.
Like every game of rugby, this final will be won or lost up front. The South Africans need to throw the kitchen sink at the Kiwis early, and hope their backs can capitalise. The effect of the road trip will be crucial here. If the Lions have heavy legs, they will be monstered, and an early lead to the Crusaders will be devastating. If the Lions can use the adrenalin of a final to make a fast start, though, they might be able to rattle the champions and put the pressure back on them. What we do know, is that if the forwards cancel each other out, and this becomes a war of attrition, it will play into the Crusaders’ hands. Mo’unga will steer the ship, while Jantjies will force his hand, and that can only end badly for the Lions. If Marx, Smith and Whiteley can establish some dominance, it might just be a very close affair.
Pundits and punters agree that this final is a one horse race, but that only means that there is plenty of value on the Lions if you fancy they can make a game of it. It will be a huge upset for them to hang on to win, so perhaps the start the Lions are being given of 17.5 points at $1.87 is the way to go. Despite some of the negative publicity that has surrounded rugby this year, the 2018 Super Rugby season has been incredibly entertaining, and maybe the year has one final twist in it.
Crusdaers v Lions
Line
Crusaders -17.5 $1.95
Lions +17.5 $1.85
For the latest Super Rugby Final odds, click here.
