Super Rugby
Semi Final Previews
Only four teams remain alive in this year’s Super Rugby competition, and we have two huge clashes on the cards this weekend in the semi-finals. Last weekend we saw the Chiefs, Sharks, Highlanders and Jaguares bite the dust, leaving the Crusaders to host the Hurricanes, and the Lions to host the Waratahs. Here is our preview of the two big games.
Crusaders v Hurricanes
AMI Stadium
Christchurch
Could you ask for anything more on your Saturday afternoon than watching these two heavyweights slug it out for a spot in the final? Clearly the two dominant teams of the regular season, it is slightly disappointing that the structure of the conference system means these two couldn’t play off in the final, but this is the next best thing. The Crusaders are deserved favourites, given their dominance during the year and the Hurricanes’ recent stumbles. These two teams have met twice this year, splitting the spoils one apiece, with the home team being the victor on each occasion. This will again be a crucial factor, with the Crusaders in devastating form at home this year. The Hurricanes will also be acutely aware that the men from Christchurch have never lost a final at home. An ominous record indeed.
The Crusaders have only made one change to their starting line up this week, with Joe Moody returning at prop, while the Hurricanes have an unchanged XV from last week. Interestingly, the Canes will stick with Jodie Barrett in the centres, despite having Wes Goosen available. There is no doubt that at some stage he will drop back to fullback, but there's no guarantee when that will happen.
There will be some immense battles up front in this one, and the Crusaders' backrow in particular looks incredibly intimidating. Ultimately, though, all eyes will be on the two flyhalves, Richie Mo'unga and Beauden Barrett. Mo'unga has been getting better and better this year, and may only miss out on an All Blacks bench spot because of Damien McKenzie's versatility. Barrett has been slightly out of sorts at the back end of the regular season, but he is a big game player who will be looking to make his mark on this one. No matter who comes out on top, it will be difficult to say they aren't a deserved finalist.
Lions v Waratahs
Emirates Park Stadium
Johannesburg
A few hours later the hopes of Australian and South African rugby fans go on the line when the Lions, last year's beaten finalists, host the NSW Waratahs. This looks like a very difficult, though not impossible, task for the Tahs. The Lions have never lost a finals match at home, and the last time these two met, in Sydney in April, it was a 29-0 shut out in favour of the South Africans. Of course, this is a very different Waratah team to the one we saw earlier in the season, one which won't hold any fears about this challenge.
The Waratahs should have been planning their mad Monday at half time against the Highlanders last week, but somehow they managed to conjure up one of the great finals comebacks we have ever seen. Their inspiration was the often maligned Nick Phipps, whose energy gave the Tahs the boost they needed, and the big three of Foley, Folau and especially Beale were able to capitalise. They shouldn't expect to be given the same latitude this week, though, and a fast start will be high on the wish list for Darryl Gibson.
Another intriguing battle of the number 10s awaits in this clash, and it is the contrasting styles that might just tell the story here. Elton Jantes is as skilful as any flyhalf in the world, but does he have the consistency and game management to get them back into another final? Bernard Foley, on the other hand, doesn't set the world on fire with silky skills, but has found a way to get his teams to win with determination and persistence. Ultimately, if the Tahs pack doesn't break even with their Lions counterparts, Foley is unlikely to have the game to get them out of trouble. The key man in all of this is Kurtley Beale. If he can continue some of his stunning recent form, and take some pressure off Foley, it might just be enough to squeeze out another unlikely win.
Predictions
Both home teams are starting heavy favourites this weekend, and it's difficult to argue given history and form. It's impossible to go past the Crusaders to get the win in Christchurch, but it feels like there might be an upset brewing in Johannesburg after the Tahs got out of jail last weekend. So it's the Crusaders and the Waratahs to go through this weekend.
Best bet
It's tempting to take the Waratahs head to head at $4.00, but let's play it a little safer. Take the 9.5 points start at the still great value of $2.10 as our best bet of the week.
For the latest Super Rugby odds, click here.
Words: Cameron Stokes
