NRL Round 17
The Form Guide
Does anyone have any fingernails left after last weekend’s round of cliff-hangers? No less than four of the matches were decided by a game winning play at the death, with another decided by only four points. The Dragons sit alone at the top of the ladder, but it’s fair to say there will be some nervousness amongst the faithful after they narrowly scraped home over cellar dwellers Parramatta. It was only some neat work from Gareth Widdop and some magic from Ben Dufty that got them home against the Eels, and the memories of late season fade outs will be starting to haunt them. For now, though, they hold a two point lead over the Rabbitohs in second place, who have been nothing but impressive of late. Admittedly, it was see-sawing affair against the Cowboys, but Adam Reynolds broke North Queensland hearts for the second time this year with his late field goal. The loss of Greg Inglis is a major blow, but Souths are firing all across the park at the moment, so they will be hopeful they can cover for the loss of their captain until he returns.
In Adelaide, Cameron Smith showed he is still the man for a crisis, even if Cooper Cronk is no longer his biggest fan. Smith’s field goal to sink the Roosters was immense, and his reaction showed just how much it meant to him. Neither side will be completely happy with their performance, but during this period of the season it is all about bagging the two points. Another set of fans that will be slightly nervous are those out at the foot of the mountains. While it is too dramatic to say that the Panthers are in a slump, they are certainly in a dip. Perhaps the strain of Origin commitments is taking its toll, or perhaps these are just the losses they had to have. It doesn’t get any easier in the near future, either, with the Warriors, Sharks and Broncos all on the horizon in the next three weeks. Their loss to the Sea Eagles was insipid, and without their Origin stars this week, they are certainly up against it.
The other significant result from the weekend was in Brisbane, where the Broncos overcame their own dismal first half to storm home to beat the Raiders. This win put a clear six point gap between the two teams on the competition table, a huge, though not impossible, mountain to climb for any side outside the top 8. What was clear, though, was that if the Broncos do sneak into the finals, they won’t be causing much damage. Their search for a solution at halfback needs to start immediately.
The Big Games
It’s another shortened round this week with State of Origin next Wednesday, and the lack of representative players taking part means it is a tricky weekend for punters. The round kicks off on Thursday with what should have been a crackerjack match, the Storm and the Dragons, but it will lack some star power. The names missing from this one include Slater, Chambers, Munster, Kaufusi, Glasby, Addo-Carr, De Belin, Hunt, Vaughan and Sims, a real disappointment for fans. It does present an opportunity, though, for young Brodie Croft to make his return via the bench. The forgotten man of the Storm’s plan for life without Cooper Cronk, Croft hasn’t been sighted in purple since the start of the year. This is a big chance for him to make an impression. The Storm start strong favourites in this one, probably on the back of the presence of Cameron Smith, and that might be enough to get them home.
The Warriors are untouched by State of Origin, and look to have all of their Kiwi stars back on deck for their meeting with the Panthers. The loss of Cleary, Maloney and Peachey, and their lacklustre form of late, means the Warriors are big favourites despite being the away team. The Warriors are flying under the radar for pundits and punters alike, and you can still get $15 on the winning the premiership, the longest price of any team in the top 8. They let slip an opportunity against the Sharks last weekend, and will be keen to bank the two points on Friday night.
The final two games for the round see the Bulldogs meet the Raiders and the Titans host the Broncos. It is very difficult to say how Canberra will bounce back after disappointment of last week, but if the Bulldogs turn up looking for points like they did against the Knights, and the Raiders are a little off, we might see an upset. If that happens, and the Broncos get the win, the gap between them widen even further, a disaster for Ricky Stuart’s men. The Broncos are no certainties, though, and will be feeling the effects of Origin without Oates, Roberts, McCullough and McGuire. This could be one the Titans pinch from their big brothers.
Predictions
There are strong favourites in each of the games this round, but with so much uncertainty in the teams it seems there is some value for punters looking for the upsets. The Dragons are outsiders, but still have Widdop in the halves, while the Storm are almost unrecognisable except for C. Smith in the number 9. The Dragons are good for an upset in this one. The Warriors are as close to a sure thing as you will get this week, and should be too strong for the undermanned Panthers, while the Raiders will bounce back to beat the Dogs, because that is what they do. On Sunday, the Titans will have a little too much cohesion for the Broncos, so it’s another upset in this one to close out the round.
Bets Bet
The Warriors look like good things against the struggling Panthers, but there is value in some of the other matchups. The Titans have scored over 30 points in their last two wins, while the Broncos showed that there is a huge gap between their best and their worst. The Gold Coast head to head at $2.20 is our best bet of the week.
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Words: Cameron Stokes
