Super Rugby Preview - Round 13
The Form Guide
What about those magnificent Jaguares? A brilliant away win over the Chiefs, backing up their win over the Blues, and making it four wins in a row on the road. Can they take this form into the finals? Who knows, but they will be in with a fight for a wildcard spot at the very least. What they have done, though, is show every disappointing, frustrating Australian team that there is no secret to beating the Kiwis. The Waratahs had a golden opportunity on Saturday night to end this horrific hoodoo, but threw it away with schoolboy errors and ill-discipline. Rod Kafer has the toughest job in world rugby at the moment, as he somehow tries to lift the skill level of all the Australian teams to something comparable with a New Zealand club team. The embarrassment must stop, but it’s almost certain it will extend for at least one more week.
The Crusaders and Hurricanes continue to be the pacesetters, with the Cantabrians demolishing the Rebels, and the Canes doing enough to get over the Lions. The Rebels are worryingly out of sorts, and the thought of losing talisman Will Genia for another 3 weeks will do nothing to calm the nerves. The Highlanders missed an opportunity to keep pace with the Kiwi rivals, going down to the Sharks, and they will be looking forward to getting home this weekend. The Stormers got over the Bulls, and leapfrogged them in the process, but both sit at the bottom of the South African conference. At this stage, it’s hard to see anything but an all New Zealand final.
The Big Games
Some really important games this weekend in terms of the conference standings. The Blues are not in the Hurricanes’ class, but they will fancy a boil over at Eden Park, particularly welcoming back Sonny Bill Williams. Both teams have the ablity to score long range tries at will, but it is the Hurricanes who have best been able to complement the strike power with the control needed to stay in the arm wrestle. Of course, having the world’s best flyhalf doesn’t hurt, not to mention the rest of his family.
The Reds travel to Japan knowing that the Rebels are now within striking distance, and second spot in the conference is theirs if they can knock off the Sunwolves and the Brumbies beat Melbourne in Canberra. Neither of those two results are certainties, though. The Reds will need to bring every ounce of the commitment they showed against the Lions, particularly in defence. The Brumbies are coming off the bye, and the Rebels might as well be, so little would they take from the Crusaders smashing. Their alst win was back in March, and their early season form seems like a distant memory. If ever they had an opportunity to turn that around, this week against the Brumbies is it.
The Waratahs will look to put last week’s disappointment behind them as they travel to Christchurch, but if the produce the same quality against the Crusaders it could get ugly. There is a composure and confidence to this Crusaders team that is almost intimidating. Ahead by only 3 points at half time against the Rebels, you knew they had more to give in the second half, and they duly piled on the tries. This is the concern for NSW, that even if they stay close for 60 minutes, this team has the firepower to blow them away in the final 20. Will the streak end this week? It would be a brave punter to back the boys in sky blue.
The Chiefs simply must bounce back against the Stormers if they want to keep pace with the Highlanders, who are hosting a road weary Lions. Two intriguing games right there, and we will learn a lot about where each of these teams sits by the end of the weekend.
Predictions
The Hurricanes will get the job done against New Zealand rivals the Blues on Friday night in what should be a very entertaining match up. Plenty of tries in that one. If the Reds have any desire to be taken seriously in the competition, they must win in Japan, and they will. The Crusaders are almost unbackable against the Waratahs, so who are we to argue? The champs will get the win in Christchurch. The Highlanders will love being back on home soil, and the Lions will be out of gas from a gruelling road trip. Take the boys from Otago. The Rebels are outsiders against the struggling Brumbies, a direct result of the absence of Will Genia, obviously a massive loss. The Rebels are a long way from their early season form at the moment, but a match up with the equally struggling Brumbies might be just what they need, so take the value on offer. The Chiefs will bounce back to beat the Stormers, while the Bulls will win at home against the Sharks.
Best Bet
The big value on offer for the Rebels is tempting, but that really is a toss of the coin affair. The Highlanders are well backed favourites against the Lions, so a little extra value for the half time-full time double at $1.72 is our best bet of the week.
For the latest Super Rugby odds, click here.
Words: Cameron Stokes
