St Kilda v Essendon
14 July, Etihad Stadium
The Saints were sensational last week, smashing Richmond, while Essendon was impressive too. St Kilda base their game on pressure and intent, and it was superb, particularly in the first half where they kicked 14 goals to 1. Essendon took some time to warm up but once they did they hit the scoreboard with accurate kicking. Fantasia has been dangerous all year and he kicked 5 goals last week. The midfield matchup will be interesting in this game. Both teams hunt the ball, while Jack Steven is the player that can run the lines and carry the ball. Membrey’s suspension is crucial because Essendon didn’t have an obvious matchup for him. Now Hartley and Hurley take Bruce and Riewoldt. At the other end of the ground, Hooker will probably get his old-teammate Carlisle. He needs to help Daniher in the air and allow Fantasia and Green to do their thing at ground level.
Stadium Record
St Kilda has won their last three at Etihad, against Richmond, Gold Coast and North Melbourne. Essendon is 2-2 at Etihad this year. Their last game there was a shock loss to Brisbane.
Head to Head Record
The Saints have won the last three between these teams. They won both encounters last year by 11 and 46 points.
Best Bet
St Kilda at the line +5.5 $1.90.
Geelong v Hawthorn
15 July, MCG
Geelong had a big win against Brisbane, while the Hawks drew with the Giants in Tasmania. Geelong was clean and their second quarter was breathtaking. Hawthorn looked to have won, lost and then won again when they rushed a late behind, but it was seconds after the siren. These two teams have played some epic matches in the past decade. This could be another one because the Hawks have rediscovered their mojo. I think Shiels will take Selwood, but teams might soon look at shutting down Duncan, whose skills are elite. The evergreen Burgoyne will probably spend some time in the middle and could line up beside Dangerfield. Hawkins is the big threat up forward and usual suspects, Frawley and Gibson, are out of the side. Meanwhile, Roughead, Gunston and O’Brien will meet Taylor, Lonergan and Kolodjashnij. Geelong seems to have the depth, but the Hawks youngsters are delivering.
Stadium Record
Geelong has lost their last two at the MCG, against Essendon and Collingwood. Their only win there this year was against Hawthorn. The Hawks beat Collingwood, last time at the MCG. Their recent record there is 3-7.
Head to Head Record
Geelong has won the last three, including an 86-point thumping earlier this year.
Best Bet
Geelong win 1-39 $2.15.
Port Adelaide v North Melbourne
15 July, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide moved back into the top 4 with a commanding win over West Coast, while North’s season of heartache continued when they lost to Fremantle by 4 points. Port Adelaide moved the ball with speed and opened up a handy lead. They were reeled in and looked in trouble, but an 8-goal last quarter gave them a deserved victory. North was jumped and worked their way into the game. They led late in the match and then Goldstein had the chance to win the game, but missed a gettable shot. These two teams are at either ends of the ladder. Port is fourth, while North is second last. North’s terrible record in close finishes has impacted their ladder position. Expect Port to win at home by playing fast football, but the Roos will fight and give a contest. Dixon v Tarrant will be an enthralling matchup.
Stadium Record
Port is 4-3 at the Adelaide Oval this year. Their last home game was a disappointing loss to Richmond. North is 0-4 at the Adelaide Oval. All those games were against Adelaide.
Head to Head Record
Port has won 3 of the last 5 between these teams. Four of those results were less than two goals.
Best Bet
North at the line +36.5 $1.90.
Gold Coast v Collingwood
15 July, Metricon Stadium
Gold Coast started well against the Swans, but fell away badly, while Collingwood’s season went from bad to worse with another uninspiring performance. The Suns were undermanned and playing a red-hot Sydney in Sydney, unfortunately, Collingwood has no such excuses. The players keep saying they support their coach, Buckley, but actions speak louder than words. It’s the same story with the Pies; when they move the ball quickly, take risks and hunt the opposition, they look good, when they play slow and stagnant footy, they look rudderless. Collingwood has always been a good travelling side and has won in Sydney and Perth this year. So, if they play fast football and bring great pressure on the home team, they can win. If they don’t, the Suns speed and young talent will prevail, especially with Ablett back. I normally say, back the home team if in doubt, but as illustrated in the recent post about interstate records and questioning home ground advantages, away teams are turning the tables.
Stadium Record
The Suns have won 4 of their last 6 at home. Collingwood’s 69-point win at Metricon in 2015 ended a two-game losing streak there.
Head to Head Record
Collingwood has won the last two between these teams by a combined total of 140 points.
Best Bet
Collingwood win $1.95.
Melbourne v Adelaide
15 July, TIO Stadium
Melbourne is coming off a hard-fought win against Carlton, while Adelaide dismantled the Western Bulldogs in the second half. Beating the Blues is not easy in 2017, so Melbourne should be pleased with their performance. Jetta deserves a mention. He started his career as a flaky forward, however, he is now one of the most reliable small defenders in the game. He will get the best small forward in the competition this week, Betts. It is a pivotal matchup. Strangely, Sloane was not tagged last week and pounced. Expect Vince to line-up right beside him this week and make Sloane’s night very difficult. The Darwin dew at night makes the ball slippery even if it isn’t raining. This will impact the game styles of both teams. Adelaide played smart wet-weather football last week, while Melbourne doesn’t mind a contested game. This one looks tight, but the void left by Viney and Jones in the middle will eventually catch up with the Dees.
Stadium Record
Melbourne plays one game a year in Darwin and they had their first win there last year, since 2011. They beat Fremantle by 32 points. Adelaide has never played in Darwin.
Head to Head Record
Adelaide has won 4 of the last 6 against the Dees, but Melbourne stunned them earlier this year, when they turned at half-time deficient into a 41-point victory, in Adelaide.
Best Bet
Adelaide at the line -19.5 $1.90.
GWS v Sydney
15 July, Spotless Stadium
It took the Giants five and a half years to experience their first draw, it took them seven days to experience their second. Meanwhile, Sydney is now in the top 8 after beating Gold Coast. The Giants looked to have won the game after a brilliant last quarter, but gave up two late goals. Sydney did what they wanted after quarter time. Rohan kicked 5 for the day. This is a huge game for both teams and another chapter in the Sydney rivalry. GWS is only just going at the moment. They have been great with so many injuries, but they can’t keep winning without playing four quarters. The Swans have won 8 of their last 9. Their contested ball numbers have been the catalyst to their success over the past two months. Momentum is hard to stop in football, and the Giants are there for the taking. An undermanned Geelong and a young Hawthorn nearly got them. I think an experienced, healthy and in-form Sydney will win.
Stadium Record
The Giants have not lost at home this year, they have won 4 and drew 1. Sydney is 1-2 at Spotless Stadium.
Head to Head Record
GWS has won the last 3 against Sydney. The margins were significant as they won by 42, 36 and 42 points.
Best Bet
Sydney win $2.00.
Richmond v Brisbane
16 July, Etihad Stadium
Richmond was smashed last week by St Kilda, while Brisbane also suffered a large defeat against Geelong. It was Richmond’s worst performance for the year. Will it be a once off? Brisbane hoped for an upset against the Cats, but couldn’t defend the corridor. Geelong torn them apart through the middle and if it wasn’t for Zorko, it could have been a 100-point loss. Richmond will try and play a similar style to Geelong. They will run and carry and use the middle of the ground. Brisbane will need to defend much better to have any chance of winning. Brisbane is such a young side that it is hard to predict their output. Richmond must bounce back and it starts with their leader. Cotchin was reported for a second striking offence this year. He needs to turn that aggression towards the ball and lead by example. His numbers are the lowest they have been in seven years.
Stadium Record
Richmond has lost 4 of their last 5 at Etihad. Their only win was against North Melbourne. Brisbane has won 2 of their last 9 at Etihad.
Head to Head Record
Richmond has dominated Brisbane recently. They have won the last 10, including a 52-point victory earlier this year.
Best Bet
Richmond first quarter handicap -8.5 $1.87.
Carlton v Western Bulldogs
16 July, MCG
It was the same story for the young Blues last week, brave yet unsuccessful, while the Dogs had another disaster in Adelaide. Carlton has been outstanding this year. Their youth looks very promising and Charlie Curnow was terrific last week. As for the Dogs, they were the opposite. They are not playing with the same intensity and commitment that we saw in last year’s finals series. It might be time to throw the magnets around and try a few things. Can Stringer play in the midfield or across halfback? Could Bontempelli move to full-forward? Is Cordy working down back? Can Picken run with someone, like Gibbs or Murphy? Unfortunately, Carlton has lost Cripps for the year with a broken leg, but that won’t dampen their effort. They will push the reigning premiers all the way at the MCG.
Stadium Record
Carlton has lost their last three at the MCG to top 8 sides Melbourne, Adelaide and Richmond. The Dogs have won their last five at the MCG. This is only their second game there this year.
Head to Head Record
The Western Bulldogs have won the last two between these teams, including a 36-point victory last year.
Best Bet
Bulldogs win 1-39 $2.10.
Fremantle v West Coast
16 July, Domain Stadium
Fremantle was fantastic against North Melbourne and won a tight one, while West Coast was disappointing and suffered another home loss. Ryan Nyhuis … never heard of him? You weren’t alone, but after being a late inclusion, and kicking four goals, including the matchwinner, his name is now known. After losing to Port, West Coast is now ninth on the ladder and the numbers don’t lie. They have 8 wins, 7 losses and their percentage is under 100. They deserve to be there. Kennedy is finally back and it is a huge inclusion. Hamling has been solid all year, but is he right, after last week’s injury? Fremantle’s keys are their ball users; Walters and the Hill brothers. West Coast also has outside runners, so it should be an entertaining match. The final consideration is Fremantle’s forward 50 entries. If they constantly kick it long, the Eagle defenders will read the play and intercept the ball. Fremantle must lower their eyes and use hit up targets to cause an upset.
Stadium Record
Fremantle has lost their last two at home, to St Kilda and Collingwood. West Coast has only won 1 of their last 4 at Domain. Once upon a time it took years for them to accumulate 3 home losses.
Head to Head Record
Fremantle once had it over West Coast, however the Eagles have won the last four by 41, 46, 33 and 24 points.
Best Bet
West Coast has jumped the Dockers the last few times, West Coast half-time/full-time $1.67.
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
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