Melbourne v Sydney
30 June, MCG
Melbourne is coming off a tremendous win in the west, while the Swans win was just as exciting, as they beat the Bombers after the siren. Viney was unbelievable, especially without Jones, while Tom McDonald went forward and kicked 5, including the matchwinner. Sydney has their own contested beast; Josh Kennedy. He was instrumental against Essendon and will be just as important this week. Both teams are in form. Melbourne has won their last four, while Sydney has won 6 of their last 7. Melbourne’s injury list has grown with Garlett and Salem joining Jones, Hogan and Watts on the sidelines. Their depth will be tested against the Swans, who are finding ways to win.
Stadium Record
Melbourne’s Queen’s Birthday win over Collingwood ended a three game losing streak at the MCG. Sydney is 1-1 at the MCG this year, after beating Richmond and losing to Carlton.
Head to Head Record
The Swans have won the last five against the Dees, by an average winning margin of 50 points.
Best Bet
Sydney win $1.83.
Western Bulldogs v West Coast
1 July, Etihad Stadium
The Bulldogs secured a much-needed win by beating the Roos by a point, while the Eagles went down in the dying seconds to Melbourne. Macrae and Bontempelli were huge. They had 60 touches, 20 tackles and a goal between them. Wood was also pivotal. West Coast looked the goods, but a Jetta miss gave the Demons a sniff, and they took it. Sheppard has been an unsung hero across the back flank. He rarely loses one-on-ones and is a good decisionmaker. He will likely get the dangerous Stringer. The Eagles have some injury concerns. They have lost Hurn and Priddis, while Kennedy is still out. Not only does his absence affect their forward line, but it impacts their defence if McGovern stays forward. Speaking of big men, the Bulldogs desperately need Roughead to return to form. He has a different role this year and after a delayed start hasn’t got going.
Stadium Record
The Dogs enjoy the fast Etihad track. They have won 9 of their last 10 there. West Coast is 1-1 there this year. They beat the Roos, but lost to the Bombers.
Head to Head Record
Since 2013 these teams have split their games. West Coast won the Round 8 contest earlier this year by 8 points.
Best Bet
Bulldogs win 1-39 $2.10.
Carlton v Adelaide
1 July, MCG
The Blues went down to Richmond last week, while the Crows were shock losers to the Hawks. Carlton has been competitive all year but never really threatened after quarter time. Meanwhile, Adelaide was overrun, outworked and outplayed by the seventeenth team. They have now lost 4 of their last 7, after starting the season 6-0. Carlton will fancy their chances against the Crows. Their young players have a thirst to compete and Adelaide has wilted in recent weeks under intense pressure. There is no doubt the Crows have the scoring power even without Lynch, but they need to match the Blues midfield of Murphy, Gibbs and Cripps to utilise their potency.
Stadium Record
Carlton’s loss to Richmond ended a three game winning streak at the MCG. Adelaide has won their last three at the MCG, including a Round 2 victory over Hawthorn.
Head to Head Record
The Crows have won the last two against the Blues. Interestingly, the last six contests between these teams were all played in Victoria.
Best Bet
Carlton at the line -22.5 is $1.90.
Gold Coast v North Melbourne
1 July, Metricon Stadium
The Suns stuck around but lost to the Saints, while North Melbourne experienced more heartbreak by losing to the Dogs by a point. Gold Coast’s injury woes returned, but some of the lesser names played well. Fiorini, Miller and Lonergan all spent time in the middle. North kept fighting and kicked the last 4 goals to draw level. A late Jake Stringer point was enough for them to go down. Both teams are quite inexperienced and sometimes youth is hard to predict. The Suns at home are generally a tough opponent, but their last home performance was poor. Meanwhile, North has been playing well but been unable to finish games off. Ablett is back and is playing his 300th game. He has a history of playing well during his milestone games.
Stadium Record
The Suns have split their 6 home games this year. The Roos have had mixed results at Metricon, however they did win there last year.
Head to Head Record
North Melbourne has won the last two against the Suns, including a 13 point victory earlier this year.
Best Bet
Gold Coast win $1.77.
GWS v Geelong
1 July, Spotless Stadium
The Giants returned to the top of the ladder after beating the lowly Lions, while Geelong scraped home against the Dockers. GWS set up their win in the second quarter and really capitalised during the third. Shiel got lots of it, while Cameron, Patton and Greene kicked 4 goals each. Geelong was 34 points down and ended the game with one on the bench. It was a gritty win, but they need to play much better to beat the Giants in Sydney. Hawkins’ recent form has been patchy. Taylor and Menzel have been playing roles, but Hawkins is an All-Australian key forward. He plays his best football when he leads and attacks the football, instead of wrestling for position. The Cats need him to have an impact if they want to beat the Giants on their home deck. Both teams have some good inclusions; Kelly, Lobb and Smith for GWS, while the Cats regain Henderson and Smith. Joel Selwood has been named after his concussion.
Stadium Record
The Giants have won their four home games this year. They beat the Suns by 102 points in Round 2, but the other three were tight. Geelong has only played at Spotless twice, for 2 wins.
Head to Head Record
These teams split their games last year. The Giants won in Canberra by 13 points, while the Cats won in Geelong by 10.
Best Bet
GWS at the line -18.5 is $1.90.
Port Adelaide v Richmond
1 July, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide controlled the Pies and ran out 31 point winners, while Richmond defeated the Blues even with their inaccuracy in front of goals. Robbie Gray was the standout with 5 goals, while White was impressive on his return. The usual suspects played well for Richmond, without being electric. That will need to change if they want to beat Port Adelaide at home. The Tigers have the matchwinners, but the Power has the evenness. Their unsung defence has been solid all year and Clurey will probably get Riewoldt. At the other end, I’m expecting Astbury to run with Dixon, and allow Rance to support and zone off. Opponents might start defending Rance if he doesn’t take the key forward. Houli’s kicking off the back flank will be missed.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide is 4-2 at home this year. Their four wins were all by 40 points or more. Richmond has lost their last three at the Adelaide Oval, by 6 goals or more.
Head to Head Record
Port Adelaide has won 3 of the last 4 against the Tigers, including 38 and 35 point victories last year.
Best Bet
Port at the line -19.5 is $1.90.
Essendon v Brisbane
2 July, Etihad Stadium
Essendon had the win in their back pocket and were halfway back to Melbourne before Sydney snatched it from them. Brisbane was outclassed by the Giants. To add injury to insult they lost skipper, Dayne Beams, early in the game after a crunching hit from Mumford. He will be sorely missed as he is one of their few A-graders. 2017 is about building for the Lions, and Mathieson played his best game for the club. The Bombers will once again look to run and carry the ball through the middle of the ground. When they play that way they are hard to beat. Brisbane has their own runners, but Essendon are more experienced, in better form and playing at home.
Stadium Record
The Bombers have won their last two at Etihad. They thrashed the Power and Eagles. The Lions have lost 7 of their last 8 at Etihad and are 0-2 there this year.
Head to Head Record
Essendon has won 5 of the last 7 against Brisbane, including a 27 point victory this year.
Best Bet
Essendon win 40+ $1.65.
Hawthorn v Collingwood
2 July, MCG
Hawthorn is coming off their best win of the season, while Collingwood was comprehensively beaten by Port Adelaide. These teams met not that long ago and the Hawks led by 7 goals during the second quarter, before the Pies wrestled control and came out victors by 3 goals. That game changed when Collingwood played aggressive football and used the corridor. I expect them to do the same again, especially after unsuccessfully playing slower football against the Power. Hawthorn is starting to get some stars back. Ex-captain, Hodge, is the biggest name, but Birchall’s return is just as important. Not only does he provide stability and rebound, but he releases some responsibilities from younger players, like Burton, Hardwick and Howe. This should be a tight contest, and has we have seen, anything can happen this year.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn has lost their last two at the MCG and are 2-5 there this year. Collingwood are 3-6 at the MCG this year and like the Hawks, have lost their last two there.
Head to Head Record
Collingwood’s Round 9 victory over the Hawks ended a 9 game losing streak against the brown and gold.
Best Bet
Hawthorn win $2.02.
Fremantle v St Kilda
2 July, Domain Stadium
Fremantle nearly pulled off a huge upset but just fell short against Geelong, while the Saints did what they had to against the Suns. The Dockers link up play was as good as we have seen for some time and what made it more exciting was the new breed: Tucker, Cox and debutant, Darcy. St Kilda eventually shrugged off the Suns, who were missing a host of players. Billings' performance was eye-catching and might draw him some attention this week. Blakely had been tagging for Fremantle, but Suban got the job last week and Blakely was good down back. If Suban repeats his role he will get Billings or Steven. Fremantle need their tall forwards to get the football. McCarthy and Kersten only had 4 touches each against the Cats. Good news is, Sandilands and Fyfe are back. Meanwhile, the Saints have forward options and if they get enough supply they will pose a threat. This is tough picking a winner because who knows which Fremantle will turn up?
Stadium Record
Fremantle is 4-3 at Domain this year. They lost their last home game to Collingwood. St Kilda has lost their last 6 at Domain, including a gusty 19 point loss to the Eagles earlier this year.
Head to Head Record
The Saints have won 3 of the last 4 between these teams. All four games were decided by more than 5 goals.
Best Bet
St Kilda win $1.95.
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
