GWS v Western Bulldogs
28 April, UNSW Canberra Oval
Friday night footy is all set. These two teams are both 4-1 and it is the first time they have met since last year’s epic preliminary final. The Giants weaponry was on display again last week. This time it was Greene and Cameron up forward, Mumford and Ward in the middle and Williams and Haynes down back. They gave the Swans at 24 point head start and won by 42. The Bulldogs overcame a determined and efficient Brisbane to win by 32 points. The optimistic view about the Dogs are they are winning without playing their best footy, conversely you can argue they have scrapped four victories against bottom six teams.
Stadium Record
The Giants have won 6 of their last 7 there, including a 31 point victory over Port Adelaide this year. The Bulldogs have beaten the Giants three times at UNSW Canberra Oval. They last played there in 2014.
Head to Head Record
These two teams have split their last 4 games. Last year the Giants won by 25 points during the home and away rounds, but the Bulldogs advantaged to the Grand Final after winning by a goal.
Best Bet
GWS half-time/full-time $1.57.
Hawthorn v St Kilda
29 April, University of Tasmania Stadium
What an intriguing game. The Hawks came off the canvas last week to smash the Eagles, while St Kilda did a lot right but were ultimately outclassed by Geelong. The Hawks next tier players lifted such as Shiels, Gunston, Breust, Hartung and McEvoy. The team collectively brought great pressure and their foot skills dramatically improved. O’Meara is back, but Rioli is out. St Kilda controlled parts of the game against the Cats, particularly in the middle with Steven and Ross. The Saints speed troubled Geelong and it will do so to the Hawks, even though Tasmania and an indoor stadium are two different things. It is time for this developing side to take down the once champs. Hawthorn outworked a disappointing West Coast, St Kilda needs to forget reputations and stand toe to toe and match the Hawks.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn don’t mind playing in Tassie. They have won 26 of their 27 there. The Saints lost to Hawthorn by 3 points last year in Launceston. That was their first game there since 2009.
Head to Head Record
Hawthorn has won the last six against the Saints, however last season’s match was different to the previous five. The Hawks won a close one and were fortuitously on the right end of some umpiring decisions.
Best Bet
St Kilda win $2.05.
Carlton v Sydney
29 April, MCG
It is sixteenth versus eighteenth. Carlton were pulled apart in the second half by Port while Sydney were completely outplayed by the Giants. Carlton struggled to score and make the most of their opportunities. Charlie Curnow was a shining light and played his best game. Kreuzer’s return will help. Sydney has played some good sides and been in games, but has yet to win one. They need to win this game and they have the personnel to do it. Lloyd has been tremendous this year and is finding plenty of the football. Jack is out injured and it goes a long way explaining his form slump.
Stadium Record
Carlton beat the Bombers in the wet the last time they played at the MCG. Before that they lost to Richmond and Melbourne. In the last two years Sydney has won 4 of their 6 games at the MCG. This is their first game there since last year’s Grand Final defeat.
Head to Head Record
Sydney has won the last 7 against the Blues. In their only game last year Carlton fought hard, yet Sydney prevailed by 6 points.
Best Bet
Sydney first quarter handicap -5.5, $1.85.
Brisbane v Port Adelaide
29 April, Gabba
Brisbane had the football world talking at half-time last week, but couldn’t maintain it and lost to the Bulldogs. Port Adelaide did a number on the Blues and moved to sixth on the ladder. There is a lot to like about the Lions youth. There is McCluggage, Hipwood, Andrews, McCluggage, McStay, Schache and have I mentioned McCluggage? While their future looks bright the facts are they led by 32 points at half-time and lost by 32. It was a 64 point turnaround. Port were challenged in the second quarter but the Blues didn’t hurt them on the scoreboard. They pounced in the third and pulled away. Robbie Gray’s third quarter was outstanding. Boak is out with a hamstring.
Stadium Record
The Lions have lost 10 of their last 11 home games, including losses to Essendon and Richmond this year. Port beat the Lions by 94 points at the Gabba last year. That was their first win there since 2007.
Head to Head Record
Port has won 4 of the last 5 against the Lions. Last year they beat them twice by 94 and 77 points.
Best Bet
Port first quarter handicap -7.5, $1.85. They have started games well.
North Melbourne v Gold Coast
29 April, Etihad Stadium
North are winless after giving up a sizeable lead again, while the Suns were no match for the hot Crows. You have to stay positive with the Roos. They are playing a lot of youth and could, possibly should, have won 3 of their 5 games. While they are unable to finish games at the moment, they are playing committed footy. The Suns found out last week they are 11 goals behind the best team in the competition. Where do you go with this one? Surely North will win soon, while the Suns are playing much better football and were not expected to beat Adelaide. If in doubt, stick with the home team, especially considering Higgins returns, and May and Thompson are still out for the Suns.
Stadium Record
The Roos have lost their last 5 at Etihad. Their last two games there have been heartbreaking 3 and 1 point defeats. Gold Coast beat Carlton at Etihad a fortnight ago. That win broke a 5 game losing streak.
Head to Head Record
North beat the Suns by 38 points last year. Before that Gold Coast won 3 in a row.
Best Bet
North 1-39 $2.30.
West Coast v Fremantle
29 April, Domain Stadium
It’s derby time in the west and both teams are 3-2. West Coast were extremely disappointing against the Hawks, while Fremantle snatched victory for the second week running. Unsurprisingly there is always a bit of feeling between these two teams, just ask Dale Kickett. The heat will be on again and West Coast will feel much better playing in front of their adoring fans. Mitchell returns and it is a big inclusion. On the flip side Fremantle lose Stephen Hill and his run and foot skills will be missed. The Eagles experience and class in the middle should give them an advantage, even when up against Sandilands. Fremantle’s youth are delivering, but they are drifting out of games at times. West Coast can hit the scoreboard and might take full advantage of those lapses.
Stadium Record
West Coast has won 8 of their last 9 at Domain, including wins against Sydney and St Kilda this year. Fremantle has won their last two at Domain and are 2-1 there this year.
Head to Head Record
West Coast has won the last three by 46, 33 and 24 points. Before that Fremantle had a hold on the Eagles winning 15 of 19.
Best Bet
West Coast fourth quarter handicap -6.5 against a young Dockers side $1.89.
Essendon v Melbourne
30 April, Etihad Stadium
Essendon are 3-2 after beating Collingwood, while Melbourne gave up a handy lead for the third straight week and are 2-3. Essendon outworked and outplayed the Pies. Heppell, Daniher and Kelly shone. The Demons had victory in sight at thee-quarter time last week, but their last quarter was stagnant. Admittedly they were two men down, but sometimes you have to overcome adversity. Lewis returns and we might learn this week whether he was sorely missed. Melbourne’s ruck stocks are quickly diminishing due to injury and Hogan won’t play due to his father’s passing. This looks a pretty even match up. Melbourne are threatening to move up the ladder but keep playing one poor quarter each week, while Essendon are still trying to find their best fit, and are hard to read.
Stadium Record
There has not been much joy for these teams at Etihad in recent times. Essendon has lost 14 of their last 15 there, however many of those games were affected by the drug scandal. Melbourne has lost 25 of their last 27, but are 1-1 this year.
Head to Head Record
The Bombers have won 3 of the last 4, including a heroic 13 point victory last year. For some reason the underdog has been successful the last three times.
Best Bet
Melbourne win $2.18.
Geelong v Collingwood
30 April, MCG
The Cats are undefeated after five rounds, while the Pies are 1-4. Selwood was brilliant and stoic once again, while Duncan keeps impressing. Taylor is getting better, and Mackie and Tuohy were good again. It’s not happening at Pieland. Wells was good on his return, but has to back up five days later. Treloar, Adams, Sidebottom and Pendlebury are shouldering the load, while smalls Fasolo and Elliott look the best forward targets. Moore will be a very good player. Like most young talls, he will take time. I expect Geelong to win, especially considering the Magpies are coming off a five day break after ANZAC Day, but there have been some interesting games between these teams recently. The last three times one team has jumped out of the blocks, while the other one never hit second gear.
Stadium Record
Collingwood has lost every game at the MCG this year to the Bulldogs, Tigers and Bombers. Geelong thrashed the Hawks on their only outing at the MCG this year.
Head to Head Record
Collingwood has won 5 of the last 7 since the 2011 Grand Final, including the last two by 24 and 48 points.
Best Bet
Geelong -25.5, $1.90.
Adelaide v Richmond
30 April, Adelaide Oval
The round finishes with a blockbuster. Two undefeated sides clash before a packed house. Adelaide are flying at the moment, while Richmond came from behind again to win. Even though both teams are 5-0 there seems to be a gap between them. Adelaide’s scoring power is deadly and Brad Crouch has seamlessly returned from injury. Meanwhile Richmond has taken care of some lower ranked sides and will be up against it in front of a hostile crowd. Riewoldt was superb against Melbourne and will be thankful that star defender Talia is out with a hamstring. Even without Talia I expect the Crows to win.
Stadium Record
Adelaide has won their three games at the Adelaide Oval this year. They beat Essendon, Port Adelaide and GWS. Richmond has lost their last two at the Adelaide Oval, but have a respectable 2-3 record there.
Head to Head Record
The Crows have won the last two against the Tigers by 36 points.
Best Bet
Adelaide half-time handicap -16.5 $1.89. Tigers second halves have been better than their first.
Words: Rhys Thurston @rhyst03
