Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Broncos
ANZ Stadium
Thursday 30 March 8.00pm LOCAL
The Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs will take on the Brisbane Broncos in Thursday Night Football and both teams will be looking for a much-needed victory after inconsistent performances over the first four rounds.
The Bulldogs woes in 2017 have continued with a crushing 36-0 loss to the Eagles sitting them 13th on the ladder with a 1-3 record. They host the Brisbane Broncos who are coming off a nail-biting 13-12 victory over the Raiders, and will need to significantly improve their attack if they are to breakthrough the committed defence of Wayne Bennett’s men.
They were exposed to significant criticism of their attacking creativity at the back-end of last year, and after four rounds of the new season they sit last in points scored with 54. They have showed patches of improvement over the first month of the competition, but go into this blockbuster without halfback Moses Mbye.
The Bronco’s will be confident travelling interstate when they face the Bulldogs tomorrow, considering they finally grinder a tough victory after two heartbreaking losses. They have conceded an average of 13 points in their last two fixtures and have been a brick-wall when defending their own goal-line.
The Broncos have recorded the most running metres in the competition so far, and Wayne Bennett will banking on his forwards to aim up against the likes of David Klemmer and James Graham who lead arguably the biggest forward pack in the NRL.
Tip: The Broncos have won five of the past seven encounters against the Bulldogs and will be certainly tough to beat once again. Expect the Bulldogs to come out and make a strong statement following their poor form but I can’t see them running away with the victory. Broncos by 14.
Best bet: Broncos -8 handicap - $1.90 (The Bulldogs have the worst attack in the comp and are up against one of the best defensive sides at the moment and possess lethal strike-power out wide)
Odds: Bulldogs $3.10 Broncos $1.38
Sydney Roosters vs. Manly Sea Eagles
Allianz Stadium
Friday 31 March 6.00pm LOCAL
Two of the strongest performers kick off Friday Night Football and with the form of both sides this lines up as a blockbuster fixture for the Roosters and Sea Eagles The Roosters have had their best start to a season since 1996 with four straight wins, while the Eagles are coming off resounding victories over the Cowboys and Bulldogs.
The Roosters are coming off a win against their arch rivals South Sydney and will be full of confidence as they remain one of two undefeated teams in 2017. They will welcome back inspirational skipper Jake Friend who was out with concussion last week, and may welcome the return of Black Ferguson and Kane Evans as they recover from injuries.
They have conceded just 20 points in their last two games but will want to be more clinical in attack after they blew their chances to put Souths to bed in the dying stages of the game. They admitted that poor game management from their senior players was a key factor so you can expect them to find more consistency with their attacking raids.
They face a Manly team who have proven the doubters wrong after losses in Round One and Two has been followed by back-to-back victories and some scintillating form. Captain Daly Cherry-Evans had a field day with five try assists last week, but their most impressive efforts have been their defence as they have conceded just one try in 160 minutes of football.
Tip: If form is anything to go by you can expect another thrilling contest that may be decided by few points or less. I’m tipping the Roosters thanks to a home-ground advantage but could go either way considering the form of Manly. Roosters by 4.
Best bet: Manly Sea Eagles +7.5 handicap - $1.90 (Both teams are statistically even with their attack and defence so I can’t see a blow-out happening from either side. Both have been defensively outstanding so far)
Odds: Roosters $1.40 Eagles $3.00
North Queensland Cowboys vs. South Sydney Rabbitohs
1300SMILES Stadium
Friday 31 March 8.00pm LOCAL
The North Queensland Cowboys will host the South Sydney Rabbitohs on Friday night and will look to record back-to-back victories after downing an injury-plagued Titans outfit last week. The Rabbitohs are coming off a 20-6 loss to the Roosters last Thursday and will want to make a big statement following their poor performance.
The Cowboys held off a valiant Titans team last weekend, but will want to put in a strong defensive performance after conceding five tries last weekend. They will welcome back the return of Dally M Medallist Jason Taumalolo and fullback Lachlan Coote, with teenage superstar Kalyn Ponga dropping out of the squad and Coen Hess returning to the bench.
Paul Green will be hoping his team will relish a home ground advantage, with a win crucial for the Cowboys to stay in touch with the top four.
The Rabbitohs are certainly struggling for form this season and despite back-to-back victories in Round Two and Three, they fell into bad habits against the Roosters and struggled to find their groove. Cody Walker continued his brilliant form and was a shining light in a losing side, with the crafty five-eight recording five line breaks and five try assists so far this season.
They have struggled in recent encounters against the Cowboys having lost four of the past five fixtures, and will hope to put in a strong performance this week to prove they are top eight team for 2017.
Tip: The Cowboys welcome back two of their biggest stars and return home after a strong away victory. Cowboys by 24.
Best bet: Cowboys -9.5 handicap - $1.87 (Last four victories against the Rabbitohs have been by 12 points or more)
Odds: Cowboys $1.30 Rabbitohs $3.50
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks vs. Newcastle Knights
Southern Cross Group Stadium
Saturday 1 April 3.00pm LOCAL
Super Saturday kicks off in Cronulla territory as the Sharks take on a struggling Knights outfit, with last years premiers coming off a strong 20-6 over the Parramatta Eels. The Knights, on the other hand, have showed massive signs of improvement over the first month of the NRL competition but were thumped 40-0 against the red-hot Penrith Panthers.
The Sharks are yet to record back-to-back victories this season but will take confidence from their last performance against the Eels. They have struggled for consistency but have been clinical in both their wins this year, and have conceded just six tries across their last three games which is a credit to their strong defensive structures.
Shane Flanagan has named Valentine Holmes at fullback this weekend, with young Hooker Jayden Brailey holding his position in the starting side despite the inclusion of James Segeyaro. Expect more minutes from Segeyaro this week, who will provide massive go-forward for the likes of Paul Gallen and Wade Graham who have been in terrific form this season.
The Knights will want to make a strong statement against the defending premiers this weekend, especially after a big 40-0 loss to the Panthers. Nathan Brown has named a few changes to his team, with Brendan Elliott returning at fullback, with Peter Mataitu’a moving to the centres and Luke Yates dropping to the bench.
The Knights have been the most penalised side this season and will want to clean up the ill-discipline against a lethal Sharks team, and will hope to break their four-game losing streak and gain some confidence back for the season ahead.
Tip: The Sharks have been impressive despite in their last three fixtures and have shown a brilliant attitude towards their defence. They face a Knights team who last experience and will struggle against a big pack. Sharks by 28.
Best bet: Cronulla Sharks 13+ - $1.55 (Boast a 98-4 scoreline across their last two games against the Knights, and have shown signs of their 2016 form)
Odds: Sharks $1.14 Knights $5.80
Canberra Raiders vs. Parramatta Eels
GIO Stadium
Saturday 1 April 7.00pm LOCAL
The Parramatta Eels travel to the Nations Capital on Saturday night, and will be looking to bounce back from their disappointing loss to the Cronulla Sharks. The Raiders are also coming off a brutal 13-12 defeat to Brisbane Broncos, but can take confidence from their gutsy effort in the closing stages of the contest.
The Eels are facing the prospect of three straight defeats following back-to-back victories in the first two rounds, and have struggled in the last two weeks with their attack having scored just three tries in both those fixtures. Corey Norman has again been named to start at halfback amid a niggling hamstring injury, while Kaysa Pritchard has also been included despite suffering from an ankle injury.
The Raiders will be kicking their heels after they an attempted come-from-behind victory fell into the hands of a Jordan Kahu field goal. They certainly struggled with consistent handling errors gifting the Broncos valuable field position, and can’t afford to do much of the same as they face a lethal combination of Corey Norman and Clint Gutherson who have been in great form.
Ricky Stuart has named David Taylor to make his second appearance from the club, with Elliot Whitehead missing selection due to suspension and Iosia Soliola starting in the back-row.
Tip: Both teams will be desperate for the two points following crucial losses in recent weeks, and may come down to a home ground advantage that will steer the home side to victory. Raiders by 6.
Best bet: Canberra Raiders 1-12 - $2.95 (Two of their last three victories have been by 10 points or less and boast similar form to the Eels so far this year)
Odds: Raiders $1.41 Eels $2.95
Melbourne Storm vs. Penrith Panthers
AAMI Park
Saturday 1 April 9.00pm LOCAL
There is no doubt that AAMI Park will host the Game of the Round when the undefeated Melbourne Storm face premiership heavyweights Penrith Panthers on Saturday night. The Storm boast a 4-0 record to start the 2017 season and are coming off an ugly win against a passionate Tigers outfit, while the Panthers were back to their best in a thumping win over the Newcastle Knights.
The Storm were certainly not at their best in their 22-14 win over the Tigers, and will want to drastically improve their form when they face the Panthers at home. Their defence is the best in the competition, averaging just over 10 points a game, and will want to improve their attack with their ‘big three’ still finding their rhythm.
Craig Bellamy will be happy with the defensive performances so far and has named just one change for this encounter, with forward Jordan Mclean named to return from injury. Ryley Jacks has held his spot at five-eight in the absence of Cameron Munster.
The Panthers are yet to find the consistency they desire this season but put away a hapless Knights outfit with ease last weekend. While posting 40 points on any side is something to crow about, they will be most happy with their defensive efforts after holding a team tryless for the second time this season. They have conceded just 16 points in their past three games, and no doubt look like one of the strongest teams so far this season.
Bryce Cartwright will again miss this clash due to an ongoing ankle injury, with Corey Harawira-Naera holding his spot in the starting line up.
Tip: The Storm have won the last five games against the Panthers and have been the more consistent side this season. A home ground advantage will, again, play a significant part in the result. Storm by 2 in a thriller.
Best bet: Total match points under 35.5 - $1.90 (Two of the best defensive teams in the competition at the moment)
Odds: Storm $1.58 Panthers $2.40
New Zealand Warriors vs. Gold Coast Titans
Mt Smart Stadium
Sunday 2 April 2.00pm LOCAL
The Warriors were viewed as a potential competition heavyweight heading into 2017, but they now sit 14th on the ladder with just one win and three losses to their name. They face an inconsistent Gold Coast Titans team plagued with injury and also recording just one victory this season.
The Warriors will be sweating on the highly anticipated return of Kieran Foran, who was a late withdrawal from last weeks game due to a hamstring complaint. He will add a significant amount of experience to an already lethal starting 13, but his biggest contribution will be his direction in their attacking raids. For having such a potent and lethal backline, their attack has struggled significantly and sit third last in points scored this season. Stephen Kearney has named Foran at five eight, with Tui Lolohea dropping out of the side.
The Titans will be disappointed with their loss to the Cowboys last weekend but can take confidence in their performance with some positive signs in their attacking structure. Scoring five games in any game is usually enough to run away with the victory, but poor defensive lapses costed them a valuable two points. Ryan James will take his place in the side after escaping suspension for a shoulder charge, while new signing Chris Grevsmuhl will make his club debut from the interchange bench.
Tip: The Warriors will relish the home ground advantage and have won the past four encounters against the Titans. Expect a more clinical Warriors team if Foran makes his debut. Warriors by 8.
Best bet: Total points over 42.5 - $1.90 (Over 200 points have been conceded between the two sides over the first four weeks)
Odds: Warriors $1.48 Titans $2.65
Wests Tigers vs. St. George Illawarra Dragons
ANZ Stadium
Sunday 2 April 6.30pm LOCAL
The Tigers are certainly a team in turmoil with all the drama surrounding the recent sacking of Jason Taylor, but their fans can be proud of their effort in their 22-14 defeat to the Melbourne Storm. They ran out to a 14-0 early in the first half but were unable to hold on as the experience of the Storm shone through. On the other hand, the Dragons have no doubt been the biggest surprise in 2017 and sit comfortably in third place with a strong for an against record. Both teams will be desperate for two points to stay in touch with the top eight and top four respectively.
Interim coach Andrew Webster will be disappointed with the result last week and will be looking for a more consistent 80 minutes against the Dragons, and has named jamal Idris in the centres which will add more X-factor out wide. Idris played the full 80 minutes in the reserves on the weekend and reports say he is in the best shape of his career., so if he gets some early ball it could prove monumental for the Tigers.
Nonetheless. they will look to their superstar fullback James Tedesco for an added spark, with the NSW fullback averaging 170 metres and 8 tackle breaks so far this season.
The Dragons have certainly silenced their preseason critics over the first month of the competition, with their committed defensive structures and unorthodox attack giving them a 3-1 record. Paul Mcgregor has again named an unchanged side, and will want another dominant display from his skipper Gareth Widdop who has been one of the form five-eights this season. Along with Widdop, Paul Vaughn has made a brilliant start to life at Kogarah and stamped his claim as the Buy of the season, averaging 15 runs, 161 running metres and 32 tackles per game.
The Dragons have won three of their past five games against the Tigers, but will want to improve on their recent record having lost two of their past three.
Tip: The Tigers will be desperate for win to restore some pride back into their jersey, but The Dragons will be tough to beat considering their form and may just run away with it in the dying stages. Dragons by 4.
Best bet: Dragons win - $1.60
Odds: Tigers $2.38 Dragons $1.60
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Words: Andre Cupido
