2017 NRL Round 4 Preview
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs. Sydney Roosters
ANZ Stadium
Thursday 23 March 8.00pm
The two remaining foundation clubs will re-ignite their rivalry tonight when they clash for the first time in 2017. The games fiercest rivalry always promises to be a feisty encounter, and even more so when both sides are coming off consecutive victories.
The Rabbitohs have put aside their Round One disaster and are coming off wins over the Manly and Newcastle. Last week’s game was not the best performance from the 2014 premiers, and their victory comes at a significant cost with George Burgess, Hymel Hunt and Braidon Burns all suspended following their misdemeanors.
Maguire made a selection shock when he named in-form five eight Cody Walker at fullback, with former captain John Sutton named to partner Adam Reynolds in the halves. Reynolds has been in brilliant form since his return to the side, which his accurate kicking game building significant pressure on opposing sides. His performance will be crucial to a possible Rabbitohs victory.
The Roosters will be looking for their fourth straight win against their arch rivals and will be happy with their improved defensive performance against the Panthers. Trent Robinson has not changed his side following the two-point win however, in a crucial blow, Jake Friend has been ruled out with Auckland Nines MVP Conor Watson taking his place. Former Rabbitoh Paul Carter is expected to join the bench and make his debut for the club.
All eyes will be on five-eight Luke Keary, who will face his former club for the first time since his departure to the Roosters. He has made a seamless transition to the other side of Anzac Parade, combining with new halves partner Mitchell Pearce to create six tries this season.
Tip: The Roosters haven’t won their first four games since 1996, but are facing a Rabbitohs side who are significantly depleted. Expect a strong showing from both sides but the Chooks to run away with the win. Roosters by 8.
Best bet: Roosters -6 handicap - $1.90 (Expect wet conditions but a big Roosters pack to run over the top of a depleted Souths side)
Odds: Rabbitohs $2.80 Roosters $1.45
Penrith Panthers vs. Newcastle Knights
Pepper Stadium
Friday 24 March 6.00pm
It’s interesting to think that both of these sides have recorded only one win in 2017, with the Panthers and Knights in opposite sides of the spectrum in pre-season prediction. The Panthers will be feeling hard done-by following their two-point loss to the Roosters last weekend, while last year’s wooden spooners put in another valiant effort against South Sydney.
The Panthers were tipped to be one of the premiership heavyweights heading into the season, but have only recorded one win in their first three fixtures. Despite sitting 11th on the ladder, they put in a dominant performance against the Tigers and just missed out against The Roosters in a tough encounter, so you can expect another big display this weekend.
Bryce Cartwright has again been named to return from injury, however reports suggest the dynamic back-rower may be a late withdrawal.
The Knights were given no hope before the start of the season, but their performances over the first three rounds have shown a vast improvement from the side that played last year. Their players were rewarded for their efforts in Round Two with a gutsy victory, and just fell short against a depleted Rabbitohs side.
Brock Lamb has been playing well beyond his years after taking the vacant number 6 jersey, laying on three tries and three line break assists, while Mitch Barnett has been inspirational in the opening three games, averaging nearly 100m and 38 tackles per game.
Tip: Knights fans will be proud of their teams performance with the odds stacked against them, but their inexperience and lack of strike power will cost them against the Panthers. Panthers to bounce back strong with a 26 point victory.
Best bet: Panthers -14.5 handicap - $1.90 (Have won four out of the past five games, with all victories by at least 18 points)
Odds: Panthers $1.18 Knights $4.80
Brisbane Broncos vs. Canberra Raiders
Suncorp Stadium
Friday 23 March 8.00pm LOCAL
It’s been an unpredictable season so far and this games looms as another tough contest for both sides as they both attempt to record their second victory of the season. The Broncos lost in the dying stages courtesy of a Cam Smith sideline conversion, while the Raiders bounced back in style with a thumping 48-6 win over a struggling Tigers outfit.
The Broncos will be kicking themselves following the loss the Storm last Thursday, especially after an uncanny ricochet landed in the arms of Josh Addo-Carr to crash over in the corner. They have now recorded back-to-back heartbreaking losses and will desperate to grind out a victory and earn themselves the rewards they have been craving.
Ben Hunt is back in the form that saw him inspire his team to a Grand Final appearance in 2015, scoring a crucial try last week. He has recorded three try assists in his opening three matches. He is working well off the back of the Broncos big forward pack, with the experience of Sam Thaiday, Josh Maguire and Matt Gillett giving plenty of go-foward for Hunt and Anthony Milford to work their magic.
The Raiders will make the daunting trip to Suncorp Stadium once again but we will be full of confidence following their massive home victory against the Tigers. Jordan Rapana relished the opportunity once again, scoring two tries (9 in his past three games versing the Tigers), 3 line breaks, 2 try assists and 213 running metres in a scintillating performance.
Stuart has named an unchanged side to tackle Brisbane at home, and will be hoping Josh Papalli and Junior Paulo will continue their brilliant form and cause havoc for the Brisbane defence through the middle.
Tip: Both teams will be craving a victory and the Broncos have the psychological edge with three straight wins against the Raiders, but I think the momentum behind the Raiders will be too strong and their backline will relish the quick surface. Raiders by 6.
Best bet: Total match points over 41.5 - $1.88 (Raiders have strike power across the park and will relish the dry surface of Suncorp. They have had defensive issues in the first two rounds so expect the Broncos to take advantage early in the contest)
Odds: Broncos $1.65 Raiders $2.25
Manly Waringah Sea Eagles vs. Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
Lottoland
Saturday 25 March 4.30pm LOCAL
The Manly Sea Eagles will play host to the Canterbury Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon, with both teams coming off their first win of the season. The Eagles made the trip to Townsville and put in a dominant 80 minute performance against the 2015 premiers, while the Bulldogs took a home game across the ditch and came away with a valuable two points against a hapless Warriors outfit.
The Eagles will be full of confidence after their resounding first win of the season, but will want to find consistency and re-build the fortress that was once Brookvale Oval. They have had no luck in recent fixtures having lost the past six encounters against the Bulldogs, but have lost two of those games in golden point. They conceded 58 points in their opening two games of 2017, but drastically improved defensively letting in just one try against the Cowboys. They will welcome back Martin Taupau and Addin Fonua-Blake to their line-up, who are huge ins given they are facing one of the biggest packs in the competition.
One man that has been a shining light for the Eagles is 20 year-old fullback Tom Trbojevic. Fast becoming one of the most exciting players in the competition, Trbojevic has lit up the NRL with two 100m tries to go with 208 average running metres and three linebreaks in 2017. If Manly are to come away with their second win of the season, Trbojevic will play a big role in the outcome.
The Bulldogs grinded out a much needed win against the Warriors on Saturday night, with their halves taking control in the last 20 to cross for two crucial tries. They were under a heap of scutiny for their lack of attacking creativity at the back-end of last year, but have showed a reasonably improved attacking structure having averaged three tries per game. They hold the advantage with the ridiculous size of their foward pack, but will want to improve their momentum up the middle as they are ranked 10th in metres gained. In saying that, Manly are ranked last in the competition for metres gained and will need to aim up if they are any chance of winning.
Tip: This has the potential to be one of the games of the round as both teams will be searching for consistency and their first win of the season. I'm going for Manly with the home ground advantage in a close game. Manly by 4.
Best bet: Manly Sea Eagles margin 1-12 - $3.50 (Can't see either team recording a dominant victory, and two of the past six games have been decided in golden point)
Odds: Eagles $2.00 Bulldogs $1.80
Parramatta Eels vs. Cronulla Sharks
ANZ Stadium
Saturday 25 March 7.00pm LOCAL
The Eels and Sharks face off in the second game of Super Saturday and this fixture lines up as a crucial encounter after both teams come off upset defeats. The Eels were downed by a gutsy Titans outfit while Cronulla allowed an early 14 lead get the better of them at home against the Dragons. They sit fourth and seventh on the ladder, so a loss for either team will see them drop out of the top four and eight respectively.
The Eels were certainly no similar to the side that saw them win their first two fixtures in 2017, and will relish the return of halfback Corey Norman as he returns from a niggling hamstring injury.
Their simple handling errors last week are a cause for concern for Brad Arthur, and will demand greater respect for the ball in the hopes of claiming a third victory. Nonetheless, their defence in the opening two games of the season were a highlight for Parramatta, and will be looking to stay solid once again after leaking 26 points against the Titans.
The Sharks have been inconsistent in their first three games of the season, and failed to carry their momentum from their crushing win over the Raiders in Round 2 to go down to the Dragons by 6 points.
All eyes will be on the Sharks team list an hour before kick off, as former Panther James Segeyaro was named on the reserves list for potentially his first game of the year. His possible inclusion in the side will cut game time of young gun Jayden Brailey significantly. He will add an extra spark out of dummy half that will be a significant advantage for their forward pack. Jack Bird has again been named at fullback, but expect Valentine Holmes to roam around the middle as he did last week.
The Sharks will take confidence in knowing they have won the previous two fixtures but will have to expect a big comeback from the Eels following their dismal performance.
Tip: Lines up as another tough fixture for fans to tip this weekend, but I'm expecting a big bounce back to form from Parramatta, especially with the return for Corey Norman. Eels by 6.
Best bet: Eels -1 handicap - $1.90
Odds: Eels $1.87 Sharks $1.95
Gold Coast Titans vs. North Queensland Cowboys
CBus Super Stadium
Saturday 25 March 9.00pm LOCAL
After their first win of the season, the Gold Coast Titans will host an injury-plagued North Queensland Cowboys in the hopes of claiming back-to-back victories for the first time since Round 23 and 24 last year. They are coming off a commanding display against the Eels, while the Cowboys are coming off a home-defeat to the Manly Sea Eagles.
After two poor performances to open their campaign, the Titans responded to their critics brilliantly and put in a valiant display against an Eels team full of confidence after two victories. Ryan James has put in dominant performances over the course of the first three weeks, averaging 115 metres per game to go with 38 average tackles and 7 tackle breaks.
Neil Henry has made few changes to his side following the victory, with new signing Dale Copley named to make his debut for the club, with his inclusion set to add significant experience to a youthful backline.
The North Queensland Cowboys struggled last week with the absence of Jason Taumalolo, Matt Scott and Lachlan Coote, and they will have to battle without their stars once again when they travel to the Gold Coast this Saturday. The lack of momentum through the middle was a significant factor in their loss, and the inexperience of Javid Bowen and Kalyn Ponga showed in crucial stage.
Paul Green has named PNG flyer Gideon Gela-Mosby to make his debut on the wing, with the Holden Cup sensation scoring 39 tries in the 2015 season.
Tip: The Titans have lost four of their past five fixtures, but they have a big chance to break that streak this weekend. I'm tipping the Titans amid the Cowboys injury woes, but you can never write off a team that has Jonathan Thurston leading the way. Titans by 2.
Best bet: Titans head-to-head - $2.15
Odds: Titans $2.15 Cowboys $1.70
Wests Tigers vs. Melbourne Storm
Leichhardt Oval
Sunday 26 March 4.00pm LOCAL
This game becomes will be a major focus among NRL fans this weekend following the constant drama at the Wests Tigers. Jason Taylor’s sacking comes only three rounds into the competition, and the Tigers now face an in-form Melbourne Storm team who sit atop of the competition ladder.
Tigers fans will be hoping from a big response from their team when they tackle last year’s Grand Finalists, and history says there is a good chance of doing so having won three of their past six games against the Storm at Leichhardt Oval. Interim coach Andrew Webster has named lock Elijah Taylor to return from injury, while veteran Matt Ballin has been included on the bench.
Webster will hope to get the best out of his ‘big four’ this weekend, especially after two big losses away from home and scoring just one try in 160 minutes of football.
The Melbourne Storm are 3-0 to start their season and travel to the sacred ground of Leichhardt Oval in the hope of holding onto pole position on the ladder. They welcomed the return of Billy Slater last weekend, who looked good in patches however was scratchy in his first game since Round 2 2016.
Craig Bellamy has named Slater at fullback and is expected to start, while rookie Riley Jacks has been named at five-eight in the place of the injured Cameron Munster. Although they’ve won just three of their past six at Leichhardt, they can take confidence in knowing they have recorded victories in their last two fixtures over the Tigers.
Tip: Many are tipping an upset with the recent form of the Storm at Leichhardt, but I think Slater will start to hit his straps and the Big Three will show their class and close out a tough game. Storm by 4.
Best Bet: Wests Tigers +6 handicap - $1.90 (Expect a strong response from the Tigers amid all their drama)
Odds: Tigers $2.65 Storm $1.48
St.George Illawarra Dragons vs. New Zealand Warriors
WIN Stadium
Sunday 25 March 6.00pm LOCAL
Many tipped Paul McGregor to be one of the first coaches sacked in 2017, but now the Dragons host the Warriors and are gunning for their third victory. They held an early 14-0 lead to down the defending premiers at Shark Park, while the Warriors have recorded back-to-back losses and sit second last on the competition ladder.
The Dragons were rock solid defensively last week against the Sharks, and will look to continue their good form against a struggling Warriors outfit. They have named an unchanged 17 to take on the Warriors, and will be full of confidence knowing they have won four of their past five fixtures against them.
Paul Vaughn has turned into a massive signing for the 2010 premiers, averaging nearly 150 metres per game to go with 27 tackles.
The Warriors will be hoping they can switch into gear sooner rather than later, after two consecutive losses drew significant criticism to a side that boasts arguably the most talented roster. Kieran Foran is expected to make his highly anticipated return to rugby league, and will be a massive inclusion with the Warriors attacking structure lacking direction.
The Warriors will also welcome the return of captain Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, who missed out last week as he failed a concussion test.
Tip: The Dragons hold a massive advantage playing at home but the Warriors welcome back two of their biggest stars. Many are tipping the Warriors will bounce back with the inclusion of Foran but expecting the Dragons to maintain their strong start. Dragons by 4 in another thriller.
Best bet: Dragons -1 $1.90
Odds: Dragons $1.87 Warriors $1.94
For the latest NRL Round 4 markets, click here.
Words: Andre Cupid
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