1. Big Orange (BlueBet Price $16): Lead them up last year in the cup and stuck on well to run a good fifth. Has excellent form since then winning the Prince Of Wales and the Goodwood Cup in England when went forward and held the challengers off. Can take a sit this year from a better barrier this year and will keep grinding away. The English jockeys have an ordinary record in this race but he should be in front at some point in the straight and is a genuine winning chance.
2. Our Ivanhowe (BlueBet Price: $41): His best performance came in the winter when a surprise winner of the Doomben Cup. His three runs this preparation have all been fair without being spectacular. On his side is the fact he his trained by the Freedman brothers and ridden by gun jockey Dwayne Dunn. Has very good wet track form and I think he would need the rain to really set in and without a big soak, he looks to only be a place chance.
3. Curren Mirotic (BlueBet price: $26): Japanese horses have had a great record when travelling to Australia and he is their only runner this year. I was fairly keen on his chance with the stable obviously having a degree of confidence to make the trip. However, reports of his work during the week say he ran like he should be pulling a cart with kegs on it and replenishing the supplies of some of Melbourne’s pubs on Tuesday rather than running in the Cup. He is a 9yo and some horses can put in ordinary trackwork and still produce on race day but fair amount of faith needs to be shown to consider him a winning chance.
4. Bondi Beach (BlueBet price: $9.00): He had absolutely no luck in the Cup last year when there was plenty of support for him to run well. His form since then has been very solid and has the benefit of gun trainer Aidan O’Brien plus a wealth of knowledge from owner Lloyd Williams who has plenty of experience with Cup winners. Ryan Moore is an absolute gun in Europe and should give him every chance. He is unquestionably a winning chance and my top pick at this stage.
5. Exospheric (BlueBet Price: $21): Imported galloper who had his first run for the Freeman’s in the Caulfield Cup when caught the eye running home into third placing. He is a question mark at the two miles but his Caulfield cup run suggested he should get the trip. Has the services of Damien Oliver which is major plus but there has been little support for him and looks to only be a place chance.
6. Hartnell (BlueBet Price $5): He is the clear favourite at $5 for the Cup and punters have been backing him for months. He is clearly our worst result and punters just keep putting the money on him. In five runs this preparation he has put in three dominant wins and two seconds beyond Winx who is an absolute freak. He put away Caulfield Cup winner Jameka very easily in the Turnbull and jock was soft on him when couldn’t beat Winx in the Cox Plate. He is clearly the class runner in the race, has good two mile form and has James McDonald on board. Punters will keep coming for him and just simply looks the one to beat.
7. Who Shot Thebarman (BlueBet Price $41): This hard nosed galloper was luckless in the Cup last year when ran into trouble in the straight. He is at his best at two miles as well and Hugh Bowman should give him every chance this year. As an 8yo, his best days are probably behind him now but he is super honest and punters who back him can be fairly sure he will finish in the first half of the field. A win here would surprise but he is very honest and not the worst roughie.
8. Wicklow Brave (BlueBet Price $21): This Irish galloper has been very well backed in recent weeks with a lot of good judges believing he is right in this. He was a surprise winner of the Irish St Leger last start when beat hot pot Order of St George. He is an 8yo but he appears to be in the form of his life. It is hard to line up the imports who haven’t had a run here but there has been enough money around from punters to suggest he is a real winning chance and rain would only help his chances.
9. Almoonqith (BlueBet Price $21): He put in a very ordinary run in the Cup last year after winning the Geelong Cup. His run in Caulfield Cup was his best for a while when he flashed home to run a nice fourth. He doesn’t have great form at Flemington so punters who like would be taking a bit of a leap of faith that his Caulfield Cup run was a turnaround rather than just going past ordinary horses who were tiring. Could make a case he is place chance on the Caulfield Cup run but a win would surprise.
10. Gallante (BlueBet Price $61): He won the Sydney Cup in the Autumn and produced a good run first up in the Naturalism before knocking up after going hard in the Moonee Valley Cup. The Robert Hickmott/Lloyd Williams combination know how to get horses ready for this race and he certainly isn’t the worst roughie in the race. Has very good wet form and rain could see him escalate from a place chance to an outside winning hope.
11. Grand Marshall (BlueBet Price $34): He is an absolute mud lark and if it rains he can win, if it doesn’t I doubt he can. He was luckless all of last Spring including in the Cup when he nearly got knocked over. He is in form having won the Moonee Valley Cup just a couple of weeks ago. The two miles is right up his alley too with the further the better for him. Chris Waller will be doing a rain dance for him and if it works, he will trim right up from his current quote of $34.
12. Jameka (BlueBet Price $8): She is clearly the class mare in the race having won the VRC Oaks last year and the Caulfield Cup this year when was very dominant. She is absolute superb form having won the Naturalism and running second to Hartnell in the Turnbull before her win in the Caulfield Cup. Obviously one of the main hopes although punters haven’t being rushing to back her and she has drifted from $6 to $8 in the past week. I have no doubt money will come for her before Tuesday though and the $8 might be good shopping.
13. Heartbreak City (BlueBet Price $15) : This Irish raider has clearly been the best backed of the imports in the past week with good money seeing him shorten from $31 to $15. He has won four of his last five starts which suggests he is in the form of his life and is down in the weights here. The booking of Joao Moreira is a good pointer as well I am happy to cop the tip here and put him in my selections. He ticks plenty of boxes with two miles no problem, gun jockey up and support from punters. Winning chance.
14. Sir John Hawkwood (BlueBet Price $101): He is a good honest stayer who won a pretty weak Metropolitan before putting in an ordinary run in Caulfield Cup. He is unproven and two miles and I can’t put him amongst the winning chances here but should put in a good solid showing.
15. Excess Knowledge (BlueBet Price $71): His form has only been solid this preparation and Moonee Valley Cup run suggests he is a question mark at the two miles. Gai Waterhouse will have him rock hard fit but there has been no money for him and I think he would need all the favours to figure in the finish here.
16. Beautiful Romance (BlueBet Price $61): This mare is from the all powerful Godolpin stable and she is only very lightly raced having only 10 career starts to date. The stable obviously have an opinion of her to bring her out for the Cup. Her form doesn’t match up with the other imports here so it is hard to have her among the winning chances but must respect the fact the stable have brought her out.
17. Almandin (BlueBet Price $16) Another one from Team Williams and there has been plenty of money around for him in the last 24 hours to say he is a winning chance. He is form having won his past two starts and looks to be building very nicely peak here. There is plenty to like about with two miles no problem, in form Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle and only carrying 52kg. I expect there to be plenty more money for him and he looks to be among the main chances.
18. Assign (BlueBet Price $61): The roughest of the Team William brigade having been well beaten by stablemate Almandin two starts ago before winning a weaker field in the Herbert Power. He should go forward from the wide gate and will give supporters a sight. It would be a surprise to see him hang on and win but certainly not the worst roughie here.
19. Grey Lion (BlueBet Price $29): Young Matt Cumani is trying to do what his father Luca hasn’t been able to and win the Cup with this imported galloper. His run in the Geelong Cup was quite good and you get the feeling the further he goes, the better he will go. He lacks the turn of foot of some of the others so would need to be an absolute grind I think to win but has an undeniable chance at big odds and there has been some support for him this week shortening from $41 to $29.
20. Oceanographer (BlueBet price $8): He surged into calculations with a last to first win the Lexus which has been a good form reference in recent years. He has shortened from $21 to $8 following that and punters were happy to take the $8.50 when we went back up, Two miles looks to suit down to the ground and is clearly among the winning chances. The two runs in Australia will certainly help and has the run of foot many of the Europeans lack. Right in this.
21. Secret Number (BlueBet Price $34): Another one of the Godolphin raiders who is lightly raced with only 13 starts as a 7yo gelding. This suggests he has had his problems but also the stable think plenty of him having brought him for a look around last year before coming back for the Cup now. He has been backed from $41 to $34 in recent days which suggests he has arrived in good order. He is a very hard one to line up but with no weight, he has to be considered a knock out hope who goes in exotics.
22. Pentathlon (Blue Bet price $126): The Kiwi is the roughie of the field and it hard to make a case for him with a one paced 7th in the Lexus when he had every chance hardly a strong recommendation for this. Will keep plugging away but simply looks outclassed here.
23. Qewy (Blue Bet Price $20): Very tough win in the Geelong Cup where he beat impressive Lexus winner Oceanographer. He will eat the two miles up here and at $20 he certainly looks to be value considering Oceanographer has been very well backed at $8.00. He has great record at two miles and is tough as old boots. Looks a value runner.
24. Rose of Viriginia (Blue Bet $126): Equal roughest of the field and not in good form. She got beaten 15 lengths in the Lexus and can’t see how she turns it around here. The owners can say they have had a Melbourne Cup runner and get to be in the mounting yard for the big one but can’t see them getting much else out of this other than a nice day out.
Tips
4. Bondi Beach
13. Heartbreak City
17. Almandin
Roughie
23. Qewy
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