West Coast vs. Essendon (June 30, Subiaco Oval)
It would be a waste of the readers’ time if I tried to sugar-coat Essendon’s ($17.75) chances of winning this match so I won’t bother. The Eagles ($1.01) are a far better side at home but this match could be played on any location on the planet and the boys from Western Australia would get the points. There could be value in the line at 70.5. If the same Essendon side that played GWS turns up, a gallant effort may see them stay within that margin.
Port Adelaide vs. Richmond (July 1, Adelaide Oval)
Richmond ($3.05) have had an up-and-down season so far, much to the frustration of their loud and loyal supporters. But with powerful on-baller Dustin Martin arguably the form player of the competition, the Tigers are a big chance of causing an upset in this one. With finals likely out of reach, it will draw upon the embarrassment of the 2014 Elimination Final where they were annihilated at this very venue. Port’s ($1.38) last showing was a loss to Fremantle a fortnight ago so the Power are hardly in convincing form.
Gold Coast Suns vs. St Kilda (July 2, Metricon Stadium)
It is surprising to see St Kilda ($1.99) open as underdogs from a bookie’s perspective, especially after last week’s win over Geelong. The Saints were phenomenal last week and the win will inspire plenty of confidence of picking up a win away from home. The Suns ($1.82) have been gallant in defeat in recent weeks but the facts show that the men from the coast are yet to record a win since the start of April. Gary Ablett was at his brilliant best last week and he will want to spur his side over the line for a much-needed win, but the Saints should be too good in this one. If you’re feeling super confident, get on the Saints to win by 40 +.
Sydney vs. Western Bulldogs (July 2, SCG)
This should be a very intriguing match-up between two sides that have given their supporters plenty to smile about in 2016. The Swans ($1.38) enter as favourites, and rightly so, but expect a big showing from the Dogs ($3.00) after a solid fortnight of training and licking their wounds after a big loss to the Cats. With Sydney boasting such a formidable midfield, it is hard to tip against them, especially on such a unique ground that they play well to their advantage. But a conservative punter could see value in backing the Western Bulldogs at the generous line offered.
Western Bulldogs at the line 17.5+ ($1.90)
Collingwood vs. Carlton (July 2, MCG)
It will be a huge Saturday night at the home of football as two of the competition’s traditional rivals battle it out. These games are always fascinating encounters with plenty of pride on the line, above all else. The ‘Pies ($1.74) are a weekly proposition at the moment with terribly inconsistent form hurting their finals chances in 2016. But Nathan Buckley’s man a fresh off a solid win over Fremantle and will look to back it up with two on the trot. Carlton ($2.08) are still a young side and were belted by Greater Western Sydney away from home last week. While they were not the first, and certainly won’t be the last, team to get thrashed by the Giants, I don’t think they will get the win in this weekend’s clash.
Melbourne vs. Adelaide (July 3, MCG)
The Demons ($3.10) have certainly improved this season, there is no doubting that. But Paul Roos’ man were far from impressive a fortnight ago in the big loss to Sydney in the wet. Their opposition in the Crows ($1.36) have been in tremendous form with some pundits predicting a top-four finish not out of the question. Expect Adelaide to make it six on the trot, but not without a fight from the Demons.
Byes: Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, Geelong, GWS Giants, Hawthorn and North Melbourne
