Horse Racing Bets – Golden Slipper – Rosehill Gardens – Matt Shean’s Runner-By-Runner Preview 2021

GOLDEN SLIPPER RUNNER BY RUNNER PREVIEW

GROUP 1
2YO
1200M
HEAVY
RAIL +3M ENTIRE
 

OVERVIEW

The Golden Slipper, the world’s richest race for two-year-olds will this week take centre stage on one of the classic days of the Australian turf, with five Group 1’s all set to be run and won at Rosehill Gardens. 2021 will be the 65^th running of the juvenile classic with this year’s edition a fairly open affair, albeit perhaps not a vintage field. Nevertheless, 11 colts and geldings, and five fillies will line up to do battle over the 1200m. It will be take 2 this week after the heavy deluge of rain led to the abandonment of last week's meeting. The track is currently rated a HEAVY 9 but drying conditions are forecast for the next few days. With that said, we can say that the track will no doubt still be rain affected. With the rail out 3M the entire I'm expecting jockeys to race away from the fence but monitor for any patterns being established early in the day.

SPEED

As is the norm in Slippers there’s speed from the onset but I’d be surprised if anything were able to lead PROFITEER. He should land on the bunny with GLISTENING racing outside lead. STAY INSIDE has drawn well to stalk from HOME AFFAIRS and ROCKET TIGER may also push forward from the wide draw. FOUR MOVES AHEAD can get on his back from KALASHNIKOV drawn low, with CAPTIVANT thereabouts. SWIFT WITNESS just worse than midfield with fellow fillies QUEEN OF WIZARDRY and MALLORY. The Blue Diamond trifecta all favoured poorly at the draw and can only see them being ridden cold. They are ARTORIOUS, INGRATIATING and ANAMOE. Ingratiating perhaps slightly closer. Kerrin McEvoy will need to make a decision on what to do with SHAQUERO but I suspect they take hold and ride him conservatively.

1. SHAQUERO ($26) Kerrin McEvoy/Chris Waller (15)

The Magic Millions winner has done a remarkable job in his early career having won the Breeders Plate on debut before claiming the Group 1 Millions at just his 4^th start. Had a mere six week let up before resuming his Golden Slipper preparation in the Skyline. The market was coined on to him there drifting ($2.20-$3.40) and he duly flopped, fading badly to finish 6^th of 8 in what was a fairly slowly run race on the clock. Bounced back last start in the Pago Pago (SP $9.50) where he got the charmed run from the low draw, was exposed at the right time and held on in a tight finish to down Tiger Of Malay. Have to admire the training performance there from Waller to pick him back up, no doubt leaving in a bit in the tank for the grand final. Ultimately though, he looks tested on Saturday. He’s certainly a very honest performer but the figures out of the Pago Pago were quite poor and the worst runs of his career have been on wet tracks. Couple that with the draw, hard to see him featuring.

2. PROFITEER ($3.60) Hugh Bowman/Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr (5)

Long time favourite from the Price/Kent Jnr yard, the son of Capitalist has been heavily supported since Tuesday’s barrier draw and sits atop the market at $3.50. Hard to knock what he’s done in three career starts to date. Lit up the clock on debut down the straight at Flemington before making light work of a weak field in the Inglis Millennium (SP $1.70) on a soft track. His colours were lowered last start in the Todman when Anamoe nailed him on the line but he proved there that he could run 1200m. My issue with him is that that Todman was a fairly even/slowly run race through the first section (0.2 lengths below benchmark) which may not have suited this horse, but he was still beaten. You would think that he would almost certainly carve out a faster first section in the slipper, so how much is he likely to have left in the tank? Add in the fact that this horse can still race quite keen and there’s a chance that he may be a spent force late. With that said, there a number of ticks. He was four weeks between runs going into the Todman so you’d think he takes natural improvement from that. The last three slipper winners have all led at the 600m, so he is going to look the winner at some stage with his positive racing pattern. Further, of the last six colts/geldings to win the slipper, all have finished either 1^st or 2^nd in the Todman in their lead-up run, so he has recent history on his side. His dominant SP there will mean the market will favour him but personally I think he’s too short and I’m happy to be against him. Can obviously win but others hold more appeal.

3. ARTORIUS ($9) Luke Currie/Anthony & Sam Freedman (13)

Blue Diamond winner who was sensational in claiming the Melbourne feature at his third race start when he was slightly underestimated by the market at $13. This year’s Diamond was run at a blistering speed (11 lengths above benchmark to the 600m) which this horse just relished, and his late strength was telling, clocking 11.44 his last 200m (14^th fastest of the day). That form has already been franked with Anamoe coming out and winning the Todman, so he looks a strong chance to become the first horse since Sepoy (2011) to claim the Diamond-Slipper double. Brings a very similar lead-up into the slipper. Was expected to be four weeks between runs but gets an extra week now, with a sole trial in between the Sydney way of going where he got back but really savaged the line late in good splits. He’ll give them a start again from the draw, but he should once again appreciate a strong tempo and if they are able to make ground, he’s a horse with a big close that will be finding the line. The wet is an unknown, and he may be looking for further now, but I think he’s a horse you have to have on side at the double figure odds.

4. INGRATIATING ($13) Damien Oliver/James Cummings (11)

Looked all over a winner in the Blue Diamond before Artorius sprouted wings late, this is another youngster that’s been ultra-consistent in his six starts to date. Claimed the Talindert before backing up 7 days later in the Diamond, which is the same formula they looked to use here if not for last week being called off. Started a hard favourite in the Pago Pago ($2.80), when probably just getting too far back in a race that was dominated by those on speed and drawn inside. Still ran the 2^nd quickest last 400/200m splits of the race. My thinking was that maybe the camp might have already squeezed everything they can out of this horse. . Would have been really set for the Blue Diamond so they need to try and pick him up to peak again which may be a big task. Whether or not the extra week off now helps him or not I'm not sure. Gets the blinkers back on but with the awkward draw and the unknowns on wet, happy to let him go around without me.

5. ANAMOE ($17) Rachel King/James Cummings (16)

The less fancied of the two Godolphin runners, Anamoe lines up as the winner of the traditional lead up for the colts in the Todman (SP $9) where he was able to beat race favourite Profiteer in a driving finish. Was superhuman in the Blue Diamond (SP $4.80) prior to that, covering a stack of ground (in the best going) but managed to run into third behind Artorius and Ingratiating. Have to note that the Todman was a perfect storm for him. The smaller field aided his get back racing pattern and his settling position on the fence was a coveted position for the day. Got a charmed run through them topping the rise where his momentum was never halted, compared to other horses in the race who were luckless. The slow early tempo also aided his big turn of foot (9^th QL400m/8^th QL200m of the day). Think he’ll find it harder on Saturday as I can’t see a scenario where he doesn’t settle last, and the big field will mean he’s a long way off them. He’s a line chaser but the $17 looks about right.

6. HOME AFFAIRS ($16) James McDonald/Chris Waller (2)

Winner of the Silver Slipper at his second start, Home Affairs was far from disgraced last start in the Todman (SP $21) where he finished a close up third behind Anamoe and Profiteer. Intriguing that James McDonald has chosen to get off the Freedman colt Stay Inside to ride him, perhaps a Waller factor more than a personal choice so I’m not reading too much into that. Is a fantastic type this colt, who I think would be much better suited on a good track, which is what he saw for the first-time last start in the Todman. He seems to improve every time he goes to the races, and has at least won on rain affected going, but I don’t think he meets his optimal conditions on Saturday. Think the gate’s tricky for him as well as he could get buried away back on the inside. Will make the grade as a three-year-old but can’t see him as a winning chance in this year’s Slipper.

7. KALASHNIKOV ($41) Mark Zahra/Peter & Paul Snowden (1)

Earned his way into the field with a last start victory in the Black Opal where the market was far from in love with him drifting from $8-$15 late. That usually isn’t the A grade form heading into a Slipper, but the time was respectable enough, and it is hard to pen Snowden trained two-year-olds who always seem to peak when it counts. With that said I don’t have any interest in him from a wagering perspective and don’t think the market will find him.

8. STAY INSIDE ($4.60) Tommy Berry/Richard & Michael Freedman (3)

Love the set-up for this colt who attacks the Slipper 4^th up as a real target for the Freedman camp, who know a thing or two about winning this race. Dominant at his first two starts, he contested the Todman as the market second elect (SP $3.20) and was disadvantaged by the race shape. Had to be taken back to last from the wide draw, worked to get into the race running the fastest 600-400 sectional, and then his momentum was halted at the top of the rise when he was boxed in behind a tiring Remarque and Alpine Edge. When he finally did see clear air back to the inside he was able to pick himself up again to record the 2^nd quickest L200m, just a shade slower than race winner Anamoe. Is only a small colt so he looks advantaged by the juice in the track, evidenced by his win in the Pierro Plate when he put paid to his rivals on a SOFT 7 track in a stride. Drawn to advantage to stalk the speed from the draw and he’ll present if there’s any chinks in the favorites armor. On top.

9. ROCKET TIGER ($41) Kathy O’Hara/Scott Spackman (14)

Bit of fairytale factor with this gelding from the Scott Spackman yard with the connections electing to pay the late entry fee for this horse who really has overachieved in his short career to date. Broke his maiden at Randwick before going on to run very credible races in the Silver Slipper where he was 2^nd to Home Affairs and then 3^rd to Kalashnikov in the Black Opal when starting favourite. Very honest customer who’ll try hard but can’t win.

10. O’PRESIDENT ($12) Glen Boss/Chris Waller (8)

Interesting runner is this son of Fastnet Rock who has won his last two starts in fairly dominant fashion. Ran good time relevant to the night at Canterbury but I think there has to be a little question mark on his win in the Skyline where he beat home fellow slipper hopefuls Shaquero and Captivant. They absolutely walked there (5 lengths below benchmark to the 600m) giving him every possible chance on speed. Interestingly, he ran about 3.5 lengths slower overall time than Four Moves Ahead who won the Sweet Embrace on the same day. Add to that that his last 200m split of 12.04 was exactly the same as FMA, a big tick to FMA as the Sweet Embrace was run almost 9 lengths faster to the 600m. The big positive for him is that he has done it on rain affected going and he comes back to his home track for the first time. Profiles as a horse that will keep improving but with the question mark on his last start figures, as well as the jockey change, I’ve marked him slightly longer than the $12 currently on offer.

11. CAPTIVANT ($34) Tom Marquand/Peter & Paul Snowden (9)

Think this horse can improve dramatically off his last start in the Skyline where he paraded awful and just raced fresh throughout. He has a very comparable SP to Shaquero who’s given a better chance here by the market and he started shorter than O’President. They take the blinkers off and add the winkers which may allow him to settle a little better and the draw looks a positive allowing him to be outside horses. Gets the services of Tom Marquand which is an obvious positive and he would have learnt a lot from the first sit he had on him. With a positive parade I can see him drastically outperforming his current price. Not sure if he can win but looks long at $41.

12. GLISTENING ($61) Jean Van Overmeire/Richard & Michael Freedman

Winner of the Resiling Stakes which is a race that has been used by six of the last eight fillies to win the Slipper. This year’s edition looks slightly more hollow with this filly able to use the bias of the day to control in front at modest fractions and hold on from a fast-finishing Swift Witness. Ran 0.76 slower overall time (4.5 lengths) than the Todman on the same day and the last 600m was considerably slower. Looks tested.

13. FOUR MOVES AHEAD ($5.50) Nash Rawiller/John Sargent (10)

Bomb proof filly who remains unbeaten in two career starts. Was fantastic on debut on the Kensington sitting wide before careering away to score easily on a Heavy 8 track. Backed that up in the Sweet Embrace when she sat handy to a good speed (6 lengths fast to the 600m) but again repelled all challengers in a very strong win that was considerably faster than the Skyline ran on the same day. That was also on a Soft 6 track. The key to her Sweet Embrace win was that she was six weeks between runs, coming off a set-back so you’d think she has considerable upside to come. Perhaps the most suited on a wet track and she has good tactical speed to be able to put herself on or near enough to the speed with Nash Rawiller sticking. Has the potential to rate right up here. Big chance.

14. SWIFT WITNESS ($34) Tim Clark/Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott (12)

Sole runner from the Waterhouse/Bott yard who started favourite in the Magic Millions but failed to feature. Went for a bath in the Resiling drifting from $5-$11 late in betting but was quite good there when attacking the line to just miss to Glistening (11^th QL200 of the day). Whispers are that Tim Clark opted to ride her instead of O’President so that could be considered a push. With that said, I don’t see her form lines as strong enough and couldn’t find her Saturday.

15. MALLORY ($26) Jason Collett/Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou (6)

Had a bit of time for this filly ever since she debuted behind Enthaar in the Gimcrack. Came out and won subsequent in the Widden (on a Soft 7 track) and then was far from disgraced when chasing Four Moves Ahead last start in the Sweet Embrace. She SP’ed $4.80 v FMA $2.70 so that alone gives her some credentials and she seems to handle wet tracks fine. May not have the class to win the race, or may be looking for further now, but I think she runs really well and would be surprised if she didn’t run in the top half.

16. QUEEN OF WIZARDRY ($101) John Allen/Annabel Neasham (4)

First up for nine weeks after finishing 4^th in the Magic Millions at $21. Was supposed to resume last week in the Magic Night if not for an incident on race day where she slipped in the wash bay and caused a small abrasion to her off side knee. All looks well there but the camp have been vocal in saying that she’s looking for more ground and she looks outclassed in this field.

 VERDICT

1. STAY INSIDE
2. FOUR MOVES AHEAD
3. ARTORIUS
4. MALLORY

In the corner of Stay Inside. I love the faultless preparation for this colt who’s trained by a camp in form and know what it takes to win this race. Wasn’t afforded every possible chance last start in the Todman, but from the draw on Saturday he looks drawn to effect to stalk a good speed which I think he’ll relish. His win on a Soft 7 track was dominant so the conditions hold no fears. Keen to be with him. Happy to pot Profiteer at the price. Four Moves Ahead looks a huge chance. Artorius the one who could gobble them up late if the track affords him the chance. Expecting Mallory to run well.

Backing Stay Inside.

GOOD LUCK PUNTERS!