The Form Guide
Only six teams remain in the hunt for NRL glory this year, and last week provided some of the most spectacular finals football we have seen in recent memory. Friday night was simply extraordinary, with 5 lead changes before a Cameron Munster field goal iced the win for the Storm over Souths. Neither team was perfect, but there was enough to suggest that we may see these two meet again in a couple of weeks. There was no debate in the Storm camp about whether they were happy to have the week off, with a number of players nursing injuries or soreness, and they will enjoy the freshen up this weekend. The Rabbits have to work out how to get themselves back up after such a torrid clash, both mentally and physically. It was not a happy night for Sam Burgess, who made some crucial errors, so he will be keen for some retribution this weekend.
The Panthers sent the Warriors packing in a way only the Panthers can do this year, starting slowly, falling behind, then coming back. Cameron Ciraldo could do without the heartache, but he will absolutely take the result given where this team was only a few short weeks ago. For all of the talk about Nathan Cleary, this is clearly James Maloney’s team, and how long they stay alive this year rests squarely on the veteran's shoulders. The Warriors will be shattered at their early exit, mostly due to the knowledge of how good they can be if they put it all together. Stephen Kearney is building something substantial over the ditch, but potential doesn't pay the bills. He will need to convert it into performance next year.
The Roosters have now established themselves as the team to beat, getting past Cronulla 21-12 in a contest that was tighter than it appears. Key for the Chooks were their two big off-season buys, Cooper Cronk and James Tedesco. Tedesco's battle with Valentine Holmes was exhilarating, but the Roosters number 1 was slightly more electric than his counterpart. He will certainly be the Australian fullback, despite the late season form of Holmes, and he will be prominent on the tip sheets of opposition coaches for the rest of the year. Cronk did exactly what he was brought to the club for, he iced the big game with a clutch play. He is made for these moments. The Sharks need to cope with the season ending loss of Wade Graham, but they are absolutely still in the fight.
Only the most ardent of Dragons fans could have predicted the blow out win over the Broncos, who took excellent form into the finals from their last four weeks. Brisbane simply didn't turn up, but that summation doesn't give the Saints the credit they deserve. Injuries will be their biggest concern now, though they will continue to play with the freedom that comes from a lack of expectation. Brisbane need to ask themselves some serious questions over the summer, questions which they refused to ask themselves this time last year. Is Wayne Bennett still the man to lead the club? Do they still think they can win a competition without a specialist halfback? The answer to both questions is surely no, but whether they will admit as much remains to be seen.
The Big Games
Only two games this weekend, but they are huge. On Friday night, the Sharks meet the Panthers at Allianz Stadium in a spicy clash. The preseason trade of Matt Moylan for James Maloney will all come down to this one game, with one team living on and another off to Mad Monday. The popular narrative through the year has been that Penrith came out on top in the trade, but Moylan has continued to improve throughout 2018, and still shapes as a long term Origin prospect at pivot. Wade Graham will be a huge loss for the Sharks, and though they have adequate cover Graham brings so much variety to the team that it is hard to replace him with a like for like player.
Cronulla will start deserved favourites here, but Penrith will be tricky. They have an awkward forward pack that can create some havoc if given space on the edges, and some real strike power out wide. The Sharks will be banking on big game experience, particularly up front, where the likes of Gallen, Fifita, Lewis and Prior will lay a strong platform. Holmes is playing out of his skin, and he will undoubtedly be lurking around the ruck behind those forwards looking for an offload. Josh Dugan is a late withdrawal for the Sharks, a big loss of a big game player. There is some genuine ill feeling between these two teams, adding a little extra heat to an already red hot clash. This will be a tough night for the Panthers, but don't rule out an upset.
Saturday night sees the Rabbits face the Dragons in a game no one was expecting to see. The Rabbitohs were desperately unlucky to lose last week, while the Dragons were outstanding in dismantling the Broncos. All sense here says that the Saints can't do it again, and that Souths are sure things. That may very well be the case, but if Souths are not completely switched on the Dragons might have one more surprise in them. Injuries may tell the story here. Gareth Widdop is a huge loss for St George, and James Graham and Jack De Belin have been named but are in serious doubt. Widdop’s absence is almost enough to cruel the Dragons’ chances alone, as the playmaking burden once again falls solely to Ben Hunt. Critics are yet to be convinced that this a role Hunt can handle in the bug games.
For Souths, the battle will be all mental. They cannot afford to take this one lightly, but they need to win comfortably if they want to find themselves in a grand final a couple of weeks later. If this one turns into a slug fest, and takes as much out of them as last week did, they will be toast for the Roosters next week. If they can manage to get through the Dragons without too much trouble, they might be able to freshen up enough to get back up for the Chooks. Like always, the pack will be key, particularly the Burgess brothers. Lay a good foundation early, and their strike power out wide can make this one look easy. If the Dragons are slightly off, we could have a cricket score on our hands.
Predictions
It's difficult to see the teams from the bottom half of the top 8 making it through this week, despite both being last start winners. The Sharks have too many big game players for the Panthers, and will win through to meet the Storm, while the Dragons will be cannon fodder for the Bunnies, who will meet the Chooks for a spot in the big dance.
Best Bet
Surely the Dragons will be spent after last week's effort. The Rabbits should be far too good, and they will cover the start of 12.5 points at $1.91 for our best bet of the week.
